ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[lrak]

I am seeing what could be a significant trend in recent model runs - taking Beta right into Texas with a much-delayed northerly turn. This would increase rain somewhat along the middle TX coast, but there will be so much dry air around it, that the rain may not be too bad. Only a few inches of rain for us in Houston if that happens. Haven't adjusted our track inland and weakening to a depression yet, but that is quite possible Decreasing chances it will become a hurricane, given the current issue with dry air.

The HWRF has been on this path for at least two days now (I'm sure you've seen that being in your position), and the Euro also showed it last run.

UKMET now, too.

Great to read this!!! Is the trend north or south of CCTX? If north then "yippy offshore winds" if it's to our south then sloppy foamy surf but some needed rain.

Also looks like CA wildfire smoke with the dry air.

[mpic]

The HWRF has been on this path for at least two days now (I'm sure you've seen that being in your position), and the Euro also showed it last run.

UKMET now, too.

Great to read this!!! Is the trend north or south of CCTX? If north then "yippy offshore winds" if it's to our south then sloppy foamy surf but some needed rain.

Also looks like CA wildfire smoke with the dry air.

Then the amounts they just posted may be too high? "15 to 20" along the coast and 8 to 15" inland?

[SoupBone]

UKMET now, too.

Great to read this!!! Is the trend north or south of CCTX? If north then "yippy offshore winds" if it's to our south then sloppy foamy surf but some needed rain.

Also looks like CA wildfire smoke with the dry air.

Then the amounts they just posted may be too high? "15 to 20" along the coast and 8 to 15" inland?

That's the interesting thing. Their forecast is what several models are showing for rainfall, hedging ther bets, then if the amounts are lower, no foul.

[sphelps8681]

Already in Bolivar Pennisula in Tx. https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v= ... live_video

[Cpv17]

NHC is calling for 10-15” in the Houston area. 57 is saying only a few inches. Huge difference.

[us89]

As mentioned in a previous post, whatever dry air Beta ingests from Texas is going to contain quite a bit of western wildfire smoke:



Wonder if it will lead to a Paulette-style weakening.

[Steve]

As mentioned in a previous post, whatever dry air Beta ingests from Texas is going to contain quite a bit of western wildfire smoke:

https://i.imgur.com/stOti5G.png

Wonder if it will lead to a Paulette-style weakening.

I know a lot of hippies in Texas. It’s going to get their smoke too. Still raining here.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s looking like Beta’s chances at becoming a hurricane have quickly diminished. Can’t say I’m surprised!

[lrak]

I know a lot of hippies in Texas. It’s going to get their smoke too. Still raining here.

I know a bunch who calls S.TX "California for Free." LOL

They don't surf much anymore though....I wish California surf here

Hoping for the best from this...but Beta reminds me of an old "or Betta Fish" that refuses to die

[Steve]

Yeah. It shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s still a cool storm. It’s been around for a while. It had the Marco path but was able to come back probably because Sally went in farther east in the Gulf than Laura. MJO isn’t great, I think Phase 5. So it’s kinda of a testament to the seasons ability to spin up lots of systems. And again, it gets one west of 90 and will become another named storm landfall. I actually keep forgetting where we are in both.

Favorable and unfavorable conditions will probably amount to this remaining a solid TS. I would never slam the door on any storm heading for Texas regardless of how hot or dry any airmass is or whatever shear is there. Probably won’t get to Cat 1, but maybe it tightens up late like so many Gulf systems have and like most do hitting Texas.

[AnnularCane]

I know a lot of hippies in Texas. It’s going to get their smoke too. Still raining here.

I know a bunch who calls S.TX "California for Free." LOL

They don't surf much anymore though....I wish California surf here

Hoping for the best from this...but Beta reminds me of an old "or Betta Fish" that refuses to die

She hasn't been around THAT long.

[Steve]

I know a lot of hippies in Texas. It’s going to get their smoke too. Still raining here.

I know a bunch who calls S.TX "California for Free." LOL

They don't surf much anymore though....I wish California surf here

Hoping for the best from this...but Beta reminds me of an old "or Betta Fish" that refuses to die

Haha. Hope it’s just a couple fun storm days for y’all down there Karl. We’re on the wet side and also have the front close by. I’m not sure if it’s going to get through New Orleans though. Because of the structure of the storm, we are getting wet but it’s just kind of nonstop drizzle with an occasional light pour. Hopefully the rain we get, since it’s probably going to rain here for several days, mostly stays light and moderate. We can handle that, but we know whenever something weaker is down by y’all, we have a chance of flooding.

[lrak]

Duly noted...a little excited if 20yr old surf legends sessions occur!

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS has a strong enough ridge to take Beta inland and that is quite a ways south of Houston. And if Beta was to follow the HWRF inland track there might be enough time to dry out before it picks up speed and moves through East Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So, the GFS is catching onto an Upper level low strengthening in OK, which catches Beta and pulls the storm away from SE Tx. This is good news. If it continues to trend towards this ULL, this will lower the rainfall totals for SE TX.

[lrak]

She hasn't been around THAT long.

You're right I think I went from Laura, Sally, to UMMM? Beta....WT

#toomuch

Also the last visible satellite shows the shadows around the center.

[davidiowx]

She hasn't been around THAT long.

You're right I think I went from Laura, Sally, to UMMM? Beta....WT

#toomuch

Also the last visible satellite shows the shadows around the center.

I didn’t really notice those shadows until you pointed it out. Is that a sign of something? I’d assume it means it is weak convection wise, but just curious!

[aspen]

Recon shows a rather steep wind gradient, indicating a rather compact center, although not nearly as compact as Marco and Nana.

[lrak]

I wish I knew...seems no hurricane at least. I can't remember a west storm after a cold front in Corpus Christi TX. I should take better care of myself.

[Steve]

She hasn't been around THAT long.

You're right I think I went from Laura, Sally, to UMMM? Beta....WT

#toomuch

Also the last visible satellite shows the shadows around the center.

I didn’t really notice those shadows until you pointed it out. Is that a sign of something? I’d assume it means it is weak convection wise, but just curious!

Sunset high in the atmosphere. Sometimes higher clouds show strengthening. Looks like it will fire later but it’s in a weak (DMIN?) phase at the moment. For now it’s just shadows from higher cloud tops and not anything dramatic.