2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

It is. The time frame has been Oct 3-4 every single run. That GFS-Para run has a TD potentially under 300 hours. We'll see if it starts showing up on the Euro and others in a few days.

The GFS and GFS para have this feature coming off of Africa tomorrow, enters the Caribbean by day 9 and starts development by day 12 in the western Caribbean so while its in fantasy range it’s not a phantom as there is a feature currently on the map that is the impetus for development

[StPeteMike]

I think it’s safe to say it’s something to definitely watch, since there seems to be a consensus on development. There’s less certainty on direction though, with some forecasting a strong ridge and putting this through the Yucatán and then others bringing it north.

[SFLcane]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

It is. The time frame has been Oct 3-4 every single run. That GFS-Para run has a TD potentially under 300 hours. We'll see if it starts showing up on the Euro and others in a few days.

Starts to develop around 280hrs..

[toad strangler]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

It is. The time frame has been Oct 3-4 every single run. That GFS-Para run has a TD potentially under 300 hours. We'll see if it starts showing up on the Euro and others in a few days.

Disagree. 12z FRIDAY had this in S FL on 10/4
12z SUNDAY had this near the Yucatan on 10/6
6z MONDAY this morning and it's Yucatan 10/7

It's getting pushed back.

[aspen]

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

It is. The time frame has been Oct 3-4 every single run. That GFS-Para run has a TD potentially under 300 hours. We'll see if it starts showing up on the Euro and others in a few days.

Starts to develop around 280hrs..

https://i.imgur.com/dsWwFYY.gif

There’s some vorticity around the southern Leeward Islands as early as 234 hours, which later develops into this system.

[CyclonicFury]

If the GFS was right we'd have several major hurricanes in the NW Caribbean every year. We haven't had a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean since 2011.

[SFLcane]

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/soIrget.jpg

That's pretty low latitude. We'll see if this wave manages to stay that far south.

[aspen]

The important thing is that we're able to locate a source within 240 hours, and it appears to be one of the AEWs that'll exit the coast within the next 3-5 days. The GFS has the ridge build back by the time this wave is trekking across the eastern to central MDR next week, pushing it right into the Caribbean. I think we'll need to keep an eye out on every low-latitude wave for the next several days if the ridge really does build back and prevents them from heading north like Teddy and Wilfred.

[HeeBGBz]

Is the weather crossing the tip of Florida something that needs to be watched?

[LarryWx]

I agree that the GFS is terrible in the Caribbean. But climo (weak to moderate La Niña following a weak to moderate El Niño) says the Caribbean will bear watching in early to mid Oct. The GFS may be showing a phantom like it often does, but at some point in early to mid Oct something is likely going to get going whether it be around 10/4 or later.

[StPeteMike]

Is the weather crossing the tip of Florida something that needs to be watched?

I don’t believe it will. It has a very limited time to spin up anything and would have to do so now or the next couple days. The fact that no models really have support for something developing in the short term can assure me nothing will come out except breezy conditions and rain.

[ElectricStorm]

Is the weather crossing the tip of Florida something that needs to be watched?

I don’t believe it will. It has a very limited time to spin up anything and would have to do so now or the next couple days. The fact that no models really have support for something developing in the short term can assure me nothing will come out except breezy conditions and rain.

I would agree with this but there are a few reasons it could pull a quick one on us
1) The models have been awful this year at sniffing out development
2) Pretty much every disturbance this year has found a way to spin up somehow... Only a few haven't
3) It's 2020

[cheezyWXguy]

12z showing similar development as 06z but much weaker due to more land interaction. I’m still on the fence here too. There is an area of vorticity that can be tracked to a wave that exits in Africa in a day or so, but it should be noted that the phantom back in August showed this too. It is unclear to me whether the wave is the source of development, a trigger to an existing CAG feature, or the CAG itself, again similar to the August phantom.

The difference in my opinion between August and now, is that showing this pattern back then made no sense. Climatology suggests that if something like this were to happen, the timeframe depicted is when it would happen. So far, we have what may be a trigger, a reasonable pattern, and climo backing. As a result, I would put my confidence in this setup a little higher than the August phantom (which should suggest my confidence is low) but I remain skeptical until full-fledged development gets into the 8-10 day range at earliest.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS ENS, continuing to show activity in the SW Carib in about 10 days.

[gatorcane]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing quite the front that swings through the SE CONUS and GOM in the 8-10 day timeframe. Such a front could yank something out of the SW Caribbean northward but these fronts also should start gradually cooling the SSTs in the Gulf and even some around Florida.

Saved GFS animation:

[StPeteMike]

Is the weather crossing the tip of Florida something that needs to be watched?

I don’t believe it will. It has a very limited time to spin up anything and would have to do so now or the next couple days. The fact that no models really have support for something developing in the short term can assure me nothing will come out except breezy conditions and rain.

I would agree with this but there are a few reasons it could pull a quick one on us
1) The models have been awful this year at sniffing out development
2) Pretty much every disturbance this year has found a way to spin up somehow... Only a few haven't
3) It's 2020

Models have genuinely been bad with long term development. Will say though, they really failed with Sally when it comes to short term. If the environment was the same as when Sally was around, I would agree. We shall see though.

[StPeteMike]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing quite the front that swings through the SE CONUS and GOM in the 8-10 day timeframe. Such a front could yank something out of the SW Caribbean northward but these fronts also should start gradually cooling the SSTs in the Gulf and even some around Florida.

Saved GFS animation:

https://i.postimg.cc/zG6Tw8jV/gfs-T2ma-us-fh168-240.gif

What model was showing a cold blast last week?

[toad strangler]

12Z GFS ENS, continuing to show activity in the SW Carib in about 10 days.

Yeah, and 10 days from now it will be 10 days out

[DestinHurricane]

It's an AEW coming off Africa that the models are showing in the Caribbean, not a phantom. Should we start a thread about this wave?