2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Don't worry, Floridians, my Gulf of Mexico hurricane barrier is now in place. 00Z and 06Z GFS runs have confirmed this.

[SFLcane]

12 GFS ENS seems much more active than previous runs - time frame keeps coming in.
TH
https://i.imgur.com/0m1EqwT.png

Hey Chris,

Remember the new GEFS has more members so it gives the impression its active. Those look like a few weak members if anything its trending away from development. Ensembles also have convective bias. Notice there aren't too many strong ones except wayyyy out.

[LarryWx]

Climo would suggest the modeled MDR TC may not develop right away, but potentially wait until near the Lesser Antilles, which makes it something to watch if it does not develop quickly.

Here’s some strong climo to chew on: Going all the way back to 1851, there is not a single case documented of a TD+ forming E of 50W in the MDR after 9/25 that later hit the CONUS! Not even one! The latest is 9/25 in 1893, which oddly enough became a TC in the far E MDR and hit SC as a major H 3 weeks later!!

Considering that we’ve been in the satellite era for 60 years now, that’s a pretty amazing stat.

For those who don’t know how to interpret climo properly, it doesn’t have “control”. But it is a reflection of many decades of tracks caused by whatever atmospheric patterns existed for these many cases. If for these many cases not even a single TC has later hit the CONUS, you can bet very heavily that it won’t happen in any one year.

[SFLcane]

[cheezyWXguy]

12 GFS ENS seems much more active than previous runs - time frame keeps coming in.
TH
https://i.imgur.com/0m1EqwT.png

Hey Chris,

Remember the new GEFS has more members so it gives the impression its active. Those look like a few weak members if anything its trending away from development. Ensembles also have convective bias. Notice there aren't too many strong ones except wayyyy out.

True, but one thing I notice since the upgrade at 12z yesterday is an increase in members in the central/east Caribbean on the 12z, as opposed to the previous 3 runs. They’re not very strong, except for 1 of them, but the timing lines up with what the icon depicts in the run you posted

[SFLcane]

12 GFS ENS seems much more active than previous runs - time frame keeps coming in.
TH
https://i.imgur.com/0m1EqwT.png

Hey Chris,

Remember the new GEFS has more members so it gives the impression its active. Those look like a few weak members if anything its trending away from development. Ensembles also have convective bias. Notice there aren't too many strong ones except wayyyy out.

True, but one thing I notice since the upgrade at 12z yesterday is an increase in members in the central/east Caribbean on the 12z, as opposed to the previous 3 runs. They’re not very strong, except for 1 of them, but the timing lines up with what the icon depicts in the run you posted

This is a good point. Starting further east is what you would need for this to be a threat.

[SFLcane]

I'll be very curious if those ensembles look like that in 5-6 days. It's at Day 10 now so that means by the end of the weekend it should be showing genesis at a week out if its a real signal.

[DestinHurricane]

GFS did not drop it, it just pushes it into CA and develops on EPAC side. ICON is also showing this developing in Caribbean, so not a GFS phantom.

[aspen]

GFS did not drop it, it just pushes it into CA and develops on EPAC side. ICON is also showing this developing in Caribbean, so not a GFS phantom.

The 12z CMC also has it, as well as the MDR system from the EPS ensembles, although both are very weak.

[aspen]

12z Euro just has some vorticity going into CA by October 2nd-4th, but it still shows the MDR TC from its 00z run.

[LarryWx]

Nothing to write home about with only ~20% of 51 members being active, but this 12Z EPS run is a little bit more active than the previous run:

[TheStormExpert]

The MDR should become highly hostile in October so I have high doubts of anything forming east of the Caribbean.

We may not see anything until mid-late October if the East Pacific suddenly lights up which I’m still skeptical of considering we’re in a La Niña not an El Niño. Either way the secondary peak in mid-October should see something.

[SFLcane]

Nothing to write home about with only ~20% of 51 members being active, but this 12Z EPS run is a little bit more active than the previous run:

https://i.imgur.com/YZkkRLu.png

Interesting Larry..thx for posting

[SFLcane]

Few hurricanes on the eps first time I see that.

[johngaltfla]

Don't worry, Floridians, my Gulf of Mexico hurricane barrier is now in place. 00Z and 06Z GFS runs have confirmed this.

https://i.imgur.com/OcrwLm8.jpg

You are the man.

(Until the GFS goes nuts again)

[aspen]

Here we go again. The GFS won’t budge from showing at least one EPac hurricane developing during its run, including one from the disturbance we’ve been monitoring for WCar development. We’re far more likely to get a Hurricane Wilma 2.0 than 2-4 TCs in the EPac within the next 10 days. Remember how badly all the models busted with the late June “EPac outbreak” that only managed to cough out barely-TS Boris and a TD.

[ElectricStorm]

Here we go again. The GFS won’t budge from showing at least one EPac hurricane developing during its run, including one from the disturbance we’ve been monitoring for WCar development. We’re far more likely to get a Hurricane Wilma 2.0 than 2-4 TCs in the EPac within the next 10 days. Remember how badly all the models busted with the late June “EPac outbreak” that only managed to cough out barely-TS Boris and a TD.

I'm just not seeing anything strong in the EPAC forming any time soon. The GFS has really favored the EPAC this year and really the only thing it got right way in advance was Genevieve

[SFLcane]

18z Gfs has nada...yet the ensembles remain active.

[Steve]

Here we go again. The GFS won’t budge from showing at least one EPac hurricane developing during its run, including one from the disturbance we’ve been monitoring for WCar development. We’re far more likely to get a Hurricane Wilma 2.0 than 2-4 TCs in the EPac within the next 10 days. Remember how badly all the models busted with the late June “EPac outbreak” that only managed to cough out barely-TS Boris and a TD.

They did pick up on the activity in August though GFS was way too strong with almost all of the developments.

[Shell Mound]

Note that Ida (2009) was extratropical at landfall. If one excludes Ida and counts the remaining eleven cases, then eight (73%) of the remainder struck the FL peninsula from Tampa Bay southward. So if a hurricane were to pass through the Yucatán Channel during the months of October and/or November, it would be most likely to impact Central and/or South Florida (peninsular) as a hurricane. Based on historical data, Cat-3 status (105 knots) seems to be the uppermost boundary for these cases at landfall, given the influence of strong vertical wind shear related to incoming autumnal troughs, along with relatively cooler SSTs in the Gulf during October/November vs. August/September. So the fact that Central/South Florida has not been impacted by a major hurricane yet is potentially very good news, since most of the region’s Cat-4+ hits have been related to CV-type, MDR-related activity during the peak months of August and September. (The exception, Cat-4 King ‘50, originated in the W Caribbean in October 1950, but actually headed NNW into Miami: an extremely unusual trajectory and location for the month of October.) So if we get a W-Caribbean major hurricane that tracks through the Channel and impacts Central/South FL, it would almost certainly be no stronger than a Cat-3 at landfall, and would more likely be weakening and/or steady-state than a MH impacting the same region in August/September. Again, very good news. Another Wilma would not be pleasant, but certainly much better than a Cat-4+.

And you have a degree in meteorology? What you present as "very good news" is your version. I lived through Wilma and spent over a week without electricity here in Southeast Florida. Also, many homes had roofs covered by blue tarps for many months.

I no longer reside in the State of Florida, having relocated overseas within the past year and a half, though it happens to be my birthplace and lifelong residence, yet I, too, went through Wilma in southeastern Palm Beach County and witnessed the same damage as you did. While destructive, Category-1 winds are far preferable to Category-4+ conditions. Aside from the Everglades beside Lake Okeechobee, most of metropolitan Southeast Florida experienced low-end Category-1 conditions with gusts to high-end Category-2 intensity. Compared to Michael, Laura, and even Irma, Wilma was a “piece of cake”—except in the ‘Glades and Lake regions. At this point I am quite optimistic that Central/South Florida won’t see a storm of greater calibre than Wilma for the remainder of 2020, unless ‘20 decides to go against climatology once again, but I prefer to abstain from superstition, and a lot of the worst-case scenarios I and others feared (for instance, in this thread) have not occurred—yet—in ‘20. Everything does not go wrong or become cataclysmic simply because “it’s 20/20.” As the latest EPS indeed suggests, I do think Central/South Florida could well see a hurricane threat during early October, but no stronger than a Cat-3 on par with Wilma’s winds of 105 knots at landfall.