2020 WPAC Season

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#381 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:38 am

Strongest run yet for the Philippine storm. Peak 929 mb.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#382 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:48 am

I'm more or less just kind of waiting to see what October has to offer right now.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#383 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:04 pm

EURO finally in line with GFS on the twin solution.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#384 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:13 pm

strong signals for philippine system.

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Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#385 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:24 pm

By Sunday, an east-to-west oriented trough establishes well to the
north along ~20N. This will induce a gentle west to southwest flow
across the Marianas that may linger through much of next week. A
wetter pattern is starting to look more likely around midweek as
moisture and monsoon-like flow are advertised by GFS/ECMWF. The
deterministic ECMWF and its ensembles continue to cave to the GFS...
now showing a tropical disturbance developing along the far eastern
extent of this trough along 20N and lifting farther north well away
from main islands of the Marianas.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#386 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:24 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I'm more or less just kind of waiting to see what October has to offer right now.


All La Niña OND major typhoons that came within 500 nm from the geographical center of the Philippine Archipelago (Marinduque island).
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#387 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:36 pm

EURO develops 2 TC's during the next 5 days while GFS 3-4 during the next 2 weeks.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#388 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:43 am

Possible active October?
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#389 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:55 pm

Eastern Micronesia disturbance now an invest.



97W Thread
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#390 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:10 am

The models seems to have backed off significantly on multiple cyclones and GFS no longer has a strengthening typhoon heading towards the Philippines.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#391 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:51 pm

I know the operational models dropped the long range systems (which can be expected) but it looks like the signal is still pretty strong for something forming in the second week of October, as per GEFS and GEPS.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#392 Postby JoshwaDone » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:31 pm

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its back.. but more south
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#393 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:32 am

06Z gone. Let's see if it comes back.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#394 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:01 am

The 00z CMC shows a classic Marianas typhoon starting to develop on October 2nd/3rd and reaching the islands on the 6th. However, none of the other models show anything like that.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#395 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:14 am

aspen wrote:The 00z CMC shows a classic Marianas typhoon starting to develop on October 2nd/3rd and reaching the islands on the 6th. However, none of the other models show anything like that.


The system is still there in the 00z run but weaker. Heads it to the P.I Sea.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#396 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:17 am

Quite interesting that GFS also develops a system at the same time frame as CMC but further north and out to sea. Past 2 runs has it very intense.

00z

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06z

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#397 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:23 am

Next 5 names:

Chan-hom
Linfa
Nangka
Saudel
Molave
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#398 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:24 am

GFS sees a possible outbreak.

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#399 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:35 am

Now if the atmosphere can cooperate combined with this: :eek: Look out.



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Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#400 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:49 am

CMC has something for the Marianas within 10 days.
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