Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

IF something develops in the NW Caribbean in October @90% chance it will take 1 of 3 tracks, bury into Yucatán, NE over Cuba missing Florida, or NNE over SFL with a landfall between Ft. Myers and Key West and then NNE over FL peninsula...

Whats the 10%?

Everything else.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Doesn't look like the MJO is in any phase particularly strongly in the models. Stays mostly in the nul phase

[cp79]

This gives me Wilma vibes. Seems like it could be a similar track. First Yucatán and then a NE to maybe ENE turn to Fla. Similar, also, in that was the only other year we got to the Greek alphabet with storm names.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it a coincidence that if this becomes Gamma, that 2005's Gamma was forecasted at one point to take a similar track towards South Florida as Wilma did in mid-November 2005?

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it a coincidence that if this becomes Gamma, that 2005's Gamma was forecasted at one point to take a similar track towards South Florida as Wilma did in mid-November 2005?

https://i.imgur.com/fPsTGSU.gif

Yes! But it is interesting, this year’s gamma could play out very similar in track, and hopefully intensity as what is depicted there

[TheStormExpert]

Is it a coincidence that if this becomes Gamma, that 2005's Gamma was forecasted at one point to take a similar track towards South Florida as Wilma did in mid-November 2005?

https://i.imgur.com/fPsTGSU.gif

Yes! But it is interesting, this year’s gamma could play out very similar in track, and hopefully intensity as what is depicted there

Fortunately Gamma that year fell apart not too long after that advisory due to unfavorable conditions.

[toad strangler]

Is it a coincidence that if this becomes Gamma, that 2005's Gamma was forecasted at one point to take a similar track towards South Florida as Wilma did in mid-November 2005?

https://i.imgur.com/fPsTGSU.gif

Yes! But it is interesting, this year’s gamma could play out very similar in track, and hopefully intensity as what is depicted there

And speed

[cheezyWXguy]

0z gfs has this forming at hour 102, and passing right on the Honduran coast

[cheezyWXguy]

The slight deviation sw from the 18z results in substantially weaker system due to land interaction in the formative stages

[toad strangler]

00z GFS looking to dissipate the system over the Yucatan as it's just meandering around over terra firma.

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol what even is this run. While over the Yucatán, gets pushed sw into the BOC

[toad strangler]

Getting buried into SA this run

[AJC3]

About a page worth of OT posts discussing Greek names have been removed as they were taking over the thread. Gang, let's keep this discussion on topic. There are several threads which discuss TC naming, Greek naming, etc. etc. Discuss it over there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121356
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121397
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121369

[Hurricaneman]

Looks Like the GFS has it stuck in the BOC for many days, It could do that but I doubt it since the other models dont seems to do this

[cheezyWXguy]

This 0z is absurd. Compared to this, even the 3 day stall-and-strengthen on the 18z looks reasonable

[CrazyC83]

Getting buried into SA this run

Sitting, waiting for a trough. Opal-esque?

[cheezyWXguy]

Getting buried into SA this run

Sitting, waiting for a trough. Opal-esque?

Are you able to tell why it’s doing this? I might be missing it, but I don’t see any mechanism like a building high that would be strong enough to shove this sw

Edit: I think I actually see it now. Looking at vorticity in the lower levels, the second system from the east Caribbean races to catch up to it, and they have some kind of Fujiwara interaction that shoves it sw. that does not seem reasonable to me

[AJC3]

From what I've seen in the model guidance over the past few days, potential NW Caribbean cyclogenesis is due to the interaction/convergence of a westward moving tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean (along 63W) and the tail end of the strong cold front which is forecast to push through central Florida on Wednesday morning. Just putting this out there, so that y'all can feel free to include discussion of the approaching Caribbean T-wave in this thread, rather than starting a separate thread on that feature. Thanks.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems the GEFS is east and northeast of the Operational at 168