Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[Nuno]

Maybe they’ll start decreasing development chances at 8pm if the GFS and GEFS even become less enthusiastic.

That or the models are screwing with our minds YET again.

Precisely why you shouldn't live or die by models. A tool, not the rule, etc

[Steve H.]

Yes, the EC does show it, albeit weak. Tis the season for the western Caribbean.

[ronjon]

Models really struggling now with cyclogeneis in the western Caribbean. Might take a few more model.cyc!es to nail things down..I think something will develop over the next 5 days...anyone's guess right now on systems strength and track. There seems to be indications of a large central american gyre developing and that always gives the models fits with storm development and movement.

[Craters]

Sure producing some convection today.

https://i.imgur.com/9HrBrFp.gif

...And take a peek at the blob in the Panama/Colombia corner, where GCANE was looking earlier...

[toad strangler]

Models really struggling now with cyclogeneis in the western Caribbean. Might take a few more model.cyc!es to nail things down..I think something will develop over the next 5 days...anyone's guess right now on systems strength and track. There seems to be indications of a large central american gyre developing and that always gives the models fits with storm development and movement.

It's a very complex region of the basin for the models to sort out. We might not know for relatively sure what will transpire until very close in to genesis or failed genesis time in the Yucatan general area. I'm watching that wave in real time to see how it behaves. It's been a overproducer all day as compared to what the models show.

[cheezyWXguy]

I feel like this is a scenario that is just too complex for models of course resolution to accurate analyze. The level of disagreement between models, as well as within the models run-to-run, seems unusually high for less than 5 days out, and even 7 days out seems like fantasyland at this point. You know it’s bad when the icon is the only one that can show the same solution 2 runs in a row.

[EquusStorm]

Ten named storms in September and 23 named storms into the season by the second half of said month, with NINE US landfalls including four hurricanes, entering a La Nina October with a favorable MJO headed this way and exceptionally high heat content in the WCarib and people STILL downcasting development? A'ight then I give up lol

[aspen]

Today’s “happy hour” GFS isn’t very happy. It’s another weak, late-developing system going into the Yucatán, without any of the crazy RI like seen in yesterday’s 18z run. I’m having more and more difficulty believing this slow development when the precursor wave has been doing so well.

[cheezyWXguy]

Today’s “happy hour” GFS isn’t very happy. It’s another weak, late-developing system going into the Yucatán, without any of the crazy RI like seen in yesterday’s 18z run. I’m having more and more difficulty believing this slow development when the precursor wave has been doing so well.

Agreed. The gfs insists on running it over the tip of Honduras in its formative stages, which precludes any rapid tightening of the circulation. If the wave tightens up north of South America, this scenario can largely be thrown out.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS is further North on the Yucatan and emerges into the GOM. This may spin up instead of getting buried like before.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is further North on the Yucatan and emerges into the GOM. This may spin up instead of getting buried like before.

Backing into the Yucatan once again.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS is further North on the Yucatan and emerges into the GOM. This may spin up instead of getting buried like before.

Backing into the Yucatan once again.

Yep, failure to launch again.

[toad strangler]

So we are over a week out again on the 18z GFS with Low Pressure basically sitting on top of the Yucatan. ALL KINDS of changes can and probably will happen with this set up. It's a very murky forecast for sure.

[aspen]

Shear is currently being analyzed at 15-20 kt by CIMSS, and it’s down to 5 kt further west. The wave will be moving into that lower shear over the next day, so if thunderstorms persist and aren’t entirely shear-driven, we might see it try to spin up tomorrow. Might.

[Loveweather12]

How might that affect a future track?

Shear is currently being analyzed at 15-20 kt by CIMSS, and it’s down to 5 kt further west. The wave will be moving into that lower shear over the next day, so if thunderstorms persist and aren’t entirely shear-driven, we might see it try to spin up tomorrow. Might.

[Ubuntwo]

How might that affect a future track?

Shear is currently being analyzed at 15-20 kt by CIMSS, and it’s down to 5 kt further west. The wave will be moving into that lower shear over the next day, so if thunderstorms persist and aren’t entirely shear-driven, we might see it try to spin up tomorrow. Might.

A storm that forms earlier would also strengthen earlier, and likely move poleward quicker. Could avoid significant interaction with the Yucatan as a result.

[gatorcane]

Quiet in this thread even after the GFS ran. Took a look and see why. Looks like it is actually a bit like the Euro driving this SW:

[Loveweather12]

Nothing is set in stone. I don’t see how it goes SW when all I hear is troughs.

Quiet in this thread even after the GFS ran. Took a look and looks like it is actually a bit like the Euro driving this SW:

https://i.postimg.cc/151BQhDT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh114-168.gif

[gatorcane]

Nothing is set in stone. I don’t see how it goes SW when all I hear is troughs.

Quiet in this thread even after the GFS ran. Took a look and looks like it is actually a bit like the Euro driving this SW:

https://i.postimg.cc/151BQhDT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh114-168.gif

Models bring a really strong front down into the Gulf and into Florida this week reminiscent of fronts you see here in late October:

[SFLcane]

Heck of a signal still coming from the gefs...if not from the first wave the second.