ATL: GAMMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

I think the future track here is going to depend a lot on how strong 91 gets. If it rapidly organizes, wouldn't be surprised in the least to see models shift more to the N and E in terms of projected path. That's a very common October track, climatologically speaking, though "Buried in the BOC" isn't off the table, of course.

[SFLcane]

I think the future track here is going to depend a lot on how strong 91 gets. If it rapidly organizes, wouldn't be surprised in the least to see models shift more to the N and E in terms of projected path. That's a very common October track, climatologically speaking, though "Buried in the BOC" isn't off the table, of course.

Looks to be quickly organizing This morning down there. But will it make a difference in the ultimate track? Remains to be seen

[aspen]

91L/Gamma will be over the 30-31C SSTs of the WCar and around the Yucutan Peninsula for up to 48 hours, presumably with that anticyclone on top of it for most or all of that time. I don't see why this can't make a run for hurricane status within the next 48-60 hours assuming it stays off of land. If it takes that left turn into the Gulf, there are a wide range of outcomes in terms of position and intensity, but no model gets it north of 25N and past the >28C SSTs. It remains to be seen if Gamma will just be a weak, dying TC like Beta, or an intensifying hurricane like Katia or Franklin when it arrives in the BoC (if the left turn does happen).

[aspen]

When is today’s first recon flight heading out? 18z?

[Weatherboy1]

Judging by satellite trends and other things, wouldn’t be surprised to see this designated at least a TD at 11 am. Suppose they could wait for recon but sure looks like it has hit that threshold

[Nancy Smar]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 25, located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

AL, 25, 2020100212, , BEST, 0, 178N, 844W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTY-FIV, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 052, TRANSITIONED, alD12020 to al252020,

[Weatherboy1]

Judging by satellite trends and other things, wouldn’t be surprised to see this designated at least a TD at 11 am. Suppose they could wait for recon but sure looks like it has hit that threshold

Haha! Special announcement from NHC literally popped up right after I hit “submit”

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well organized. HWRF takes this to hurricane status right before landfall.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything that would indicate a track NE toward Florida or north toward the northern Gulf Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

A deeper system say a well stacked cat 1

would have a 50/50 chance of making the connection with the big break in the ridging to the north before it fills in.

the HWRF gets very close before being thrust SW.

SO if it deepened quickly the next 24hrs ( which it very well might)

watch for some more ensemble members to start showing NE gulf.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm not seeing anything that would indicate a track NE toward Florida or north toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Yet I don't see any indication that this gets shoved west under a lower steering height, other than guidance suggests.

[edu2703]

Looking healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds TS winds later today.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds TS winds later today.

https://im6.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-6-11abbe1f41c1.gif

Quite likely

[edu2703]

First cone. Peak at 45 kts for now.

[us89]

Not much standing in the way of this right now, seems like the only limiting factor in the short term will be how much time it has over water before it moves into the Yucatan.

I would bet landfall intensity on the Yucatan will be higher than the NHC's current 45 mph forecast.

[aspen]

Not much standing in the way of this right now, seems like the only limiting factor in the short term will be how much time it has over water before it moves into the Yucatan.

I would bet landfall intensity on the Yucatan will be higher than the NHC's current 45 mph forecast.

There’s quite a range in how much time TD25/Gamma will have before landfall. It could be as little as 18-24 hours if it’s going NW, or it could be as much as 48-60 hours if it goes more NNW/N. There’s even a chance it could miss the Yucatán entirely. The longer Gamma stays over water, the higher chance it has to RI within a favorable environment of a perfectly stacked anticyclone and SSTs/OHC high enough to support a <890 mbar system.

[wxman57]

It will be battling with quite dry air through at least Monday, and probably Tuesday. That should keep a lid on strengthening.

[cp79]

Seems like more models starting to kill it in the BOC. Not sure if it will make survive when it starts moving westerly. Gonna run into a buzzsaw. Prolly why storms don’t go to Texas this time of year. If they try to, they get killed.

[aspen]

Recon is heading back already.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Seems like more models starting to kill it in the BOC. Not sure if it will make survive when it starts moving westerly. Gonna run into a buzzsaw. Prolly why storms don’t go to Texas this time of year. If they try to, they get killed.

Storms don't go to Texas this time of year as a result of more potent troughing that tends to funnel systems off to the NE from the Caribbean and Southeast Atlantic. Hurricane Jerry in 1989, for example, strengthened up until landfall near Galveston, despite it being in mid-October.