ATL: DELTA - Models
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TallyTracker
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
Let’s put it this way, I’m not closing my eyes on this one in Tallahassee. If the models are only slightly off on the timing of the turn, this could send a hurricane barreling further east than expected.
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
12z HWRF has a rather anemic TC for most of the day tomorrow.
However, starting overnight Monday into Tuesday, Delta goes nuclear.
However, starting overnight Monday into Tuesday, Delta goes nuclear.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
TallyTracker wrote:Let’s put it this way, I’m not closing my eyes on this one in Tallahassee. If the models are only slightly off on the timing of the turn, this could send a hurricane barreling further east than expected.
That's right.
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
Pretty big jump east on the 18z hmon and hwrf. Hmon peaks in the 940s and hwrf in the 960s before weakening.
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Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk
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Michael
Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Pretty big jump east on the 18z hmon and hwrf. Hmon peaks in the 940s and hwrf in the 960s before weakening.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201005/2790d7f870e22248c034ca5407b84b7e.jpg
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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201005/81909a5de3c8153f30ce83473fc51e8c.jpg
It is the 18z model runs!
Last edited by 3090 on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
supercane4867 wrote:18z HWRF has a dreaded pinhole eye surrounded by -80C cloud tops.
That, and it gets to the 940s and is even further south than last run, only barely making landfall over the far W tip of Cuba. Yikes yikes yikes.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Pretty big jump east on the 18z hmon and hwrf. Hmon peaks in the 940s and hwrf in the 960s before weakening.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201005/2790d7f870e22248c034ca5407b84b7e.jpg
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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201005/81909a5de3c8153f30ce83473fc51e8c.jpg
These runs make more sense to me. Hard right turn into FL Panhandle from a stronger storm seems like the most likely outcome. Just don’t see it landfalling in La/MS unless it’s a lot weaker.
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
Does anyone remember the last time the HWRF went pinhole, if ever?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
A stronger storm sooner would be less likely to feel Gamma I would think? Since the steering flow would be driven by the upper-level patterns and Gamma wouldn't even be noticeable at that level.
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:A stronger storm sooner would be less likely to feel Gamma I would think? Since the steering flow would be driven by the upper-level patterns and Gamma wouldn't even be noticeable at that level.
Yup just about
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
If the HWRF is right and we get a Pinhole. CAT3/4 is probably to conservative with the water temps and OHC
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Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020100418/hwrf_satIR_26L_10.png
If the HWRF is right and we get a Pinhole. CAT3/4 is probably to conservative with the water temps and OHC
Yea this has all the ingredients for a monster in a few days!
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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Models
Just don't need this, just buried my father here today in Niceville, FL.
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:Just don't need this, just buried my father here today in Niceville, FL.
Sorry to hear that Dean
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Michael
Re: ATL: PTC 26 - Models
aspen wrote:Does anyone remember the last time the HWRF went pinhole, if ever?
I never seen HWRF have a pinhole eye. Pinhole eyes in hurricanes are very intense.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:Just don't need this, just buried my father here today in Niceville, FL.
Sorry to hear that Dean
Dean sorry for your loss I also lost my dad back in August.
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Models
Big shift west on the GFS. Doesn't even make landfall in Cuba. Also much stronger
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Models
I don't like the start of the HWRF, stronger and much further sw.
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Models
Fancy1001 wrote:I don't like the start of the HWRF, stronger and much further sw.
Yea the Western treads are not good. Might take land interaction out the equation
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