ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

Whether this is a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane when it landfalls along the Gulf Coast is the only question. So it is fun to watch it RI Strengthen just as long as it doesn't hit Cuba........It's much easier to enjoy it just knowing how quickly it's going to get shredded once it gets into the Central Gulf.

Eh maybe... The stronger it gets though before entering the gulf (if it misses Cuba and the Yucatan), I would think the shear would not weaken it all the way down to a TS, it will significantly weaken for sure but maybe not that weak when it comes in. Hopefully it won't be anything more than a TS at landfall though.

You could be right. It could possibly be stronger than a tropical storm at landfall IF it gets stronger than forecast in the short-term.... They were mentioned significant weakening on the TV channel as well. So it looks to be just a rain-event, even if it is still a minimal hurricane at landfall.....

You do understand that once a hurricane reaches a certain intensity and begins to pile on a surge it takes a significant amount of time for weakening would be needed for that threat of surge to subside. We aren't likely going to see gradual prolonged weakening of this storm, it will likely be a weakening that occurs right before landfall. Because of this the threat of storm surge will most likely be high if this storm does indeed reach it's potential. We've seen this before with Gulf Coast storms that weaken before landfall. They aren't any less dangerous.

[DestinHurricane]

The NHC has this making landfall as a hurricane
so not sure if that what someone would refer to as a
a “shredded” storm.

I think the NHC is just being careful. Probably taking a better safe than sorry approach.....

No. The NHC gives us the science, not "better safe than sorry". If they thought it would be a tropical storm at landfall, they would state that.

[aspen]

Miss Piggy just climbed to 700 mb.
They are switching gears to hurricane mode.

I take that back, they are climbing higher.

Something's up.
They just did a weird loop.

Maybe they’re gaining altitude to leave.

[edu2703]

18 nm eyewall.

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC has this making landfall as a hurricane
so not sure if that what someone would refer to as a
a “shredded” storm.

I think the NHC is just being careful. Probably taking a better safe than sorry approach.....

No. The NHC gives us the science, not "better safe than sorry". If they thought it would be a tropical storm at landfall, they would state that.

I think they will change it in the future, just not right now. ( but that's just my opinion)

[ClarCari]

There’s not gonna be alot of dry air in the Gulf. It’s moving almost ahead of Delta, so not likely to catch up to much of it.
The shear will be the worst impact on Delta. The SST’s won’t be soo cold until the last second in the Northern Gulf. The intensity and, equally as important, structure over the next couple of days will demonstrate how much weakening is really induced.
I think since Delta is likely to bomb the best case scenario for the Gulf is if it undergoes an EWRC at the same time as it moves into the northern gulf. That would make it very hard to recover, and much more prone to the elements.

[cycloneye]

Misson is over with only one pass. Problems with plane?

[Do_For_Love]

You do understand that once a hurricane reaches a certain intensity and begins to pile on a surge it takes a significant amount of time for weakening would be needed for that threat of surge to subside. We aren't likely going to see gradual prolonged weakening of this storm, it will likely be a weakening that occurs right before landfall. Because of this the threat of storm surge will most likely be high if this storm does indeed reach it's potential. We've seen this before with Gulf Coast storms that weaken before landfall. They aren't any less dangerous.

The classic example being Katrina, right? Cat 3 with a Cat 5 surge.

Anyway though, that's days away. I'm more interested in what's happening right now...The pressure of Delta is a lot lower than I expected it be.

[ElectricStorm]

Misson is over with only one pass. Problems with plane?

I would think so after only 1 pass. Hope they are all ok. They have had quite a bit of mechanical issues this year though it seems like every storm this year has had a mission that had some kind of issue and had to turn back.

[cycloneye]

Here is the good news. No 00z gap.

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1313215538315886595

[3090]

Eh maybe... The stronger it gets though before entering the gulf (if it misses Cuba and the Yucatan), I would think the shear would not weaken it all the way down to a TS, it will significantly weaken for sure but maybe not that weak when it comes in. Hopefully it won't be anything more than a TS at landfall though.

You could be right. It could possibly be stronger than a tropical storm at landfall IF it gets stronger than forecast in the short-term.... They were mentioned significant weakening on the TV channel as well. So it looks to be just a rain-event, even if it is still a minimal hurricane at landfall.....

You do understand that once a hurricane reaches a certain intensity and begins to pile on a surge it takes a significant amount of time for weakening would be needed for that threat of surge to subside. We aren't likely going to see gradual prolonged weakening of this storm, it will likely be a weakening that occurs right before landfall. Because of this the threat of storm surge will most likely be high if this storm does indeed reach it's potential. We've seen this before with Gulf Coast storms that weaken before landfall. They aren't any less dangerous.

GREAT reminder here. People fail to understand, Hurricanes are like a turbocharger. The pressure drops, the wind follows suit, than the wave heights and surge begin to build, in that order. The wave action and tidal surge are also the aspects of a Hurricane, to subside last. Once the momentum of a Hurricane has peaked, the pressure rises first, then the winds begin to slow and then the wave action and tidal surge begin to fall back. This is exactly what happened with Katrina along the SELA coast and Mississippi coast. Katrina rapidly intensified and made a beeline towards the SELA coast and Mississippi coast. It weekend to CAT 3 as it made its approach, but all of the momentum of the forces were already ramped up and did not have enough time to fall back. Yes, Katrina hit as a CAT 3, but with CAT 5 like surge and wave action. That is what is worrisome to me, with Delta. A POSSIBLE similar scenario.

[Extratropical94]

Misson is over with only one pass. Problems with plane?

They are back at 700 mb.

[MarioProtVI]

Misson is over with only one pass. Problems with plane?

I would think so after only 1 pass. Hope they are all ok. They have had quite a bit of mechanical issues this year though it seems like every storm this year has had a mission that had some kind of issue and had to turn back.

Actually I think they may be doing a SAR. It’s happened a few times this year (Hanna, Laura and I think there was one other one)

[us89]

I would be skeptical of any post on here stating Delta will make landfall on the US as a tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane.

Unlike many of the Atlantic storms we've seen this year, it is likely that Delta will in fact be weakening upon its landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, mostly due to a combination of increased wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. But this is likely to be quite a strong system when it enters the Gulf, and these factors may not have enough time to weaken it a whole lot.

Perhaps most importantly, the NHC - an organization of hurricane experts that is known for forecasting on the conservative side for intensity estimates - is already calling for a category 2 hurricane landfall five days out. That is quite a bold prediction to make, and one that almost certainly was not taken lightly.

And as mentioned above, even if it does weaken as expected, the surge will be much larger than expected for a storm of that intensity. Katrina, for example, was "only" a category 3 at landfall but hit with a surge comparable to what would be expected of a cat 5.

Bottom line: listen to the NHC and your local WFOs.

[edu2703]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5
Location: 16.2°N 79.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[ElectricStorm]

Misson is over with only one pass. Problems with plane?

I would think so after only 1 pass. Hope they are all ok. They have had quite a bit of mechanical issues this year though it seems like every storm this year has had a mission that had some kind of issue and had to turn back.

Actually I think they may be doing a SAR. It’s happened a few times this year (Hanna, Laura and I think there was one other one)

Yeah that makes sense. Whatever it ends up being, hope everyone is ok

[edu2703]

Forecast peak increased to 105 kts

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Up to 60 knots (!)

[ElectricStorm]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5
Location: 16.2°N 79.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

This will be a hurricane by the intermediate advisory.

[edu2703]

Delta could make landfall near Cancun as a major hurricane or pass very close to there.