ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Delta could make landfall near Cancun as a major hurricane or pass very close to there.

That seems very likely now - the threat has ramped up dramatically for them. I would honestly say cat 4+ can't be ruled out. That could also weaken it before final landfall, since it may have a hard time re-strengthening if it loses the inner core over the Yucatan, as it would need the time over good conditions (southern Gulf) just to get itself back together.

[KWT]

Delta could make landfall near Cancun as a major hurricane or pass very close to there.

That seems very likely now - the threat has ramped up dramatically for them. I would honestly say cat 4+ can't be ruled out. That could also weaken it before final landfall, since it may have a hard time re-strengthening if it loses the inner core over the Yucatan, as it would need the time over good conditions (southern Gulf) just to get itself back together.

Getting more than a little whiff of Wilma there given its location and time of year. Whilst I'm not saying its going into hyper mode like Wilma did, I wouldn't be all that shocked to see a 4/5 into landfall on NE Yucatan.

Impressive pressure as well, thats more akin to a WPAC type system and if it does really get going tomorrow, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see it make a run towards 900mbs, the waters in this region are well known to pumping out these sorts of systems on occasion.

[Emmett_Brown]

The short term motion of Delta has been interesting today... Delta lost almost a degree of latitude, and slowed to 8 mph. The 5am track forecasted Delta to track near W Cuba, but now may clip the Yucatan. These are pretty substantial short term track changes. This is a great example of how models can be tightly clustered in the short term, and all of them be completely wrong.

[aspen]

Recon is heading in for another pass at 3100-3200 gpm through the NE quadrant. It’s possible they could find hurricane-force winds.

[cycloneye]

After acending, Kermit goes down again to operational and is now going to make the second pass.

[Extratropical94]

978.4 extrapolated

[Nimbus]

The short term motion of Delta has been interesting today... Delta lost almost a degree of latitude, and slowed to 8 mph. The 5am track forecasted Delta to track near W Cuba, but now may clip the Yucatan. These are pretty substantial short term track changes. This is a great example of how models can be tightly clustered in the short term, and all of them be completely wrong.

Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane in the southern gulf but may run out of fuel if she gets far enough west and ingests some dry inflow. Stronger storm may also amplify any kind of nearby trough which would be good news but I'll have to wait and see what the models do with the new information.

[Blinhart]

I don't think the tip of the Yucatan will have any effects on this system that much. Also all of you are acting like there is a giant pool of cool water at the coast of the Gulf, it is all at 79 degrees or higher all over. The areas that are under 84 degrees is only maybe 100 miles out from the coast, so unless this system slows down to a crawl it won't have that much time to lose all it's strength. The big deciding factor will be the wind shear that is suppose to pick up at the end of the week, but not guaranteed.

[kevin]

978.4 extrapolated

Strap in everyone, it's gonna be a long and steep journey down the coming days.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

978.4 mb
(~ 28.90 inHg

[aspen]

978.4 extrapolated

Holy crap, that’s 7 mbar lower than the last pass!

[ElectricStorm]

978.4 extrapolated

Whoa already in the 970s...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR was 60 knots, but was flagged.

Very rapid deepening occurring. That was a huge drop from the last pass.

[CrazyC83]

The next 24 hours are going to be wild...and extremely suspenseful for those in the Yucatan.

[Argcane]

Buckle up guys, it's going bonkers as we speak

[Blinhart]

Will they wait until the 7pm (Central) advisory to upgrade to Hurricane or post a Special Advisory??? That is the big question now. Because most likely they will find the necessary winds shortly.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR was 60 knots, but was flagged.

Very rapid deepening occurring. That was a huge drop from the last pass.

Overall seems to support the 60 kt intensity, although you wonder if there are stronger winds elsewhere? Especially with the pressure tumbling.

[edu2703]

978 mb, but winds are still under hurricane intensity

I don't know if this is a record for the lowest pressure recorded in a Tropical Storm

[kevin]

That's a 6.9 mbar drop in 100 minutes. How rare are pressure drops like this?

[CrazyC83]

Will they wait until the 7pm (Central) advisory to upgrade to Hurricane or post a Special Advisory??? That is the big question now. Because most likely they will find the necessary winds shortly.

I think they will wait for the intermediate. It's only a 5 knot increase, and the winds from this pass support the current 60 kt.