ATL: DELTA - Models

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro, gets further West in the gulf than any run so far

[SoupBone]

18z Euro, gets further West in the gulf than any run so far

https://imgur.com/DngP5r2

Yeah, even with a west bias this isn't good for SW/Central Louisiana. But how much further west will it go?

[Blinhart]

18z Euro, gets further West in the gulf than any run so far

https://imgur.com/DngP5r2

Yeah, even with a west bias this isn't good for SW/Central Louisiana. But how much further west will it go?

Looks like it is trying to stay away from the little bit of cooler water around the Delta of the Mouth of the Mississippi.

[SoupBone]

The GFS-Para scrapes the Texas coast headed to SWLA. Wow...

[stormlover2013]

Gfs para sw la

[Blinhart]

The GFS-Para scrapes the Texas coast headed to SWLA. Wow...

No, I don't want this storm, let it just die in the Gulf like Gamma.

[SoupBone]

The GFS-Para scrapes the Texas coast headed to SWLA. Wow...

No, I don't want this storm, let it just die in the Gulf like Gamma.

I can't imagine why these west shifts keep happening but if they don't stop, this will end up scraping the Texas coast and end up being a Texas system. I keep reading and people saying it won't happen, but these shifts west have been going on for a day now with no east shifts in sight.

[HouTXmetro]

With Laura, didn't the models shift west at night only to shift east during the day? If I recall correctly that happened for several days. Tonight's runs should be interesting.

[SoupBone]

With Laura, didn't the models shift west at night only shift east during the day? If I recall correctly that happened for several days. Tonight's runs should be interesting.

Yes, but they've been going west with no east shifts for almost a day now. So far, it's not like Laura.

[LSU2001]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

https://i.imgur.com/xBNXWsM.png

Getting very nervous here in Thibodaux

I am very nervous as well down the bayou in Cut Off!!

[La Breeze]

The GFS-Para scrapes the Texas coast headed to SWLA. Wow...

No, I don't want this storm, let it just die in the Gulf like Gamma.

I don't want it either, Blinhart.

[Blown Away]

Fortunately for now the models see Delta weakening before making landfall as a Cat 1-2.

[St0rmTh0r]

The upcoming pattern favors strong ridging this will likely get further west than forecast

[LarryWx]

Fortunately for now the models see Delta weakening before making landfall as a Cat 1-2.

The 18Z HWRF has it as a cat 4 at peak and it then weakens but it still looks to me like a cat 3 at LF in LA with 950s pressure.

[cheezyWXguy]

Fortunately for now the models see Delta weakening before making landfall as a Cat 1-2.

The 18Z HWRF has it as a cat 4 at peak and it then weakens but it still looks to me like a cat 3 at LF in LA with 950s pressure.

And 18z gfs was 961mb

[Blown Away]

Fortunately for now the models see Delta weakening before making landfall as a Cat 1-2.

The 18Z HWRF has it as a cat 4 at peak and it then weakens but it still looks to me like a cat 3 at LF in LA with 950s pressure.

HWRF does have a error on the high side bias, but most of the models see weakening before landfall, let’s hope that’s accurate.

[cheezyWXguy]

Fortunately for now the models see Delta weakening before making landfall as a Cat 1-2.

The 18Z HWRF has it as a cat 4 at peak and it then weakens but it still looks to me like a cat 3 at LF in LA with 950s pressure.

HWRF does have a error on the high side bias, but most of the models see weakening before landfall, let’s hope that’s accurate.

Maybe on weak storms, but it has hit the nail on the head for the stronger ones recently, has an excellent track record this season in general.

[Steve]

The upcoming pattern favors strong ridging this will likely get further west than forecast

Maybe? The steering ridge is moving in from the east. western edge is the push. We need to look NW to follow along and see if anything is depicted to pick it up. Clearly with the expected acceleration, the flow will get it at some point even if a trough doesn’t pick it up.

[LarryWx]

Per Levi's new video, folks as far east as the W FL Panhandle, though unlikely to be hit directly as of now, are still are not out of the danger zone. The reason is that if it were to slow down more than expected when near Gamma, it's turn could be sharper and go NE.

[LarryWx]

Fortunately for now the models see Delta weakening before making landfall as a Cat 1-2.

The 18Z HWRF has it as a cat 4 at peak and it then weakens but it still looks to me like a cat 3 at LF in LA with 950s pressure.

HWRF does have a error on the high side bias, but most of the models see weakening before landfall, let’s hope that’s accurate.

1. I agree about the high side bias of the HWRF. So, when it is off, it is usually because it is too strong, not too weak.
2. Regardless of the peak strength it is almost a given that it will weaken at least some. But it won't be crawling like Sally. So, there likely won't be enough time for major weakening.