ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#861 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:38 am

Comparison to Wilma at about the same lat/lon:

Wilma:
Image

Delta:
Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#862 Postby TorSkk » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:39 am

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#863 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:40 am

Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:That <-80C perfectly circular CDO with a pinhole starting to show up on visible is a terrifying sight. Imagine how nuts Delta is going to be once that clears out...

The HWRF showed that pinhole a couple days ago... It has been pretty impressive with storm structure this year.


...but not consistent run to run (a few runs later it had the system much weaker). Just looking at the oceanic and atmospheric conditions; anyone even passingly familiar with tropical cyclogenesis wouldn't need a model to tell them what were seeing now was always a strong possibility. :eek:
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#864 Postby plasticup » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:41 am

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#865 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:41 am

One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#866 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:41 am

Lots of lightning activity in the eyewall
 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1313471560573833216


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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#867 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:42 am

Store Run 1 completed. That was 6 cases of spring water, 2 handles of Jim Beam, some Red Bulls, snacks and milk. We have one case freezing in the freezer which we always do just to have extra cold in the refrigerator if we need it or can use the frozen bottles to cool an ice cheset. This is pretty insane considering it's like the 4th time I've stocked up on hurricane supplies so far only to see a wind gust around 40mph once or twice. We'll still need to gas up and position the cars if necessary, but that will happen on Thursday if we have to do it. I think we got rain from 6 or 7 systems (or former systems) in 2002. We got like 4 in 2005. This is up there with 2002 but with generally bigger threats that missed or storms that didn't take off. Batteries, chargers, flashlights and candles are still around from Sally and Beta.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#868 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:42 am

BigB0882 wrote:One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.


With respect to Levi, but he's incorrect in this case. The system has definitely dropped nearly 7 mb in a little over an hour per dropsonde.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#869 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:43 am

Uh, woah there.

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#870 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:43 am

Image

Welp.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#871 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:44 am

Eye warming. About to clear out.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#872 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:45 am

113 knots on the dropsonde but likely a gust. However, this supports an upgrade to 100 knot major hurricane status when considering reduction from gusts.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#873 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:46 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.


With respect to Levi, but he's incorrect in this case. The system has definitely dropped nearly 7 mb in a little over an hour per dropsonde.

No I think in this case Levi is right, it currently is going through some mid-level shear based on Satellite. Nothing to weaken it of course. That dropsonde looks like a gust FWIW.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#874 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:46 am

ThetaE wrote:Uh, woah there.

https://i.imgur.com/ZjEp4GV.png


Looks like a major at 11 am coming right up! :eek:
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#875 Postby plasticup » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:47 am

ThetaE wrote:Uh, woah there.

https://i.imgur.com/ZjEp4GV.png


Unreal. Maybe just a gust. Probably. This feels like watching Wilma again. Thank God it's a slow day at work!
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#876 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:50 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:113 knots on the dropsonde but likely a gust. However, this supports an upgrade to 100 knot major hurricane status when considering reduction from gusts.


I dunno about "likely a gust-" note that winds averaged 115 kt in the lowest 150 m and 112 kt in the lowest 500 m. If this was just a gust I don't imagine you'd see such a deep layer of strong winds, however I do think that surface wind is still a bit too high/should not be taken literally. I'd say 105-110 kt.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#877 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:51 am

ThetaE wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:113 knots on the dropsonde but likely a gust. However, this supports an upgrade to 100 knot major hurricane status when considering reduction from gusts.


I dunno about "likely a gust-" note that winds averaged 115 kt in the lowest 150 m and 112 kt in the lowest 500 m. If this was just a gust I don't imagine you'd see such a deep layer of strong winds, however I do think that surface wind is still a bit too high/should not be taken literally. I'd say 105-110 kt.


We've seen this before. With Laura, for example, we saw winds averaging well over 140 knots along the lowest 500 meters; however, Laura was not upgraded to Category 5 status.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#878 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:52 am

75 mm/hr rain rate.
Massive latent heating
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#879 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:52 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.


With respect to Levi, but he's incorrect in this case. The system has definitely dropped nearly 7 mb in a little over an hour per dropsonde.

No I think in this case Levi is right, it currently is going through some mid-level shear based on Satellite. Nothing to weaken it of course. That dropsonde looks like a gust FWIW.


He's right on that point, he's wrong that the storm hasn't deepened more than 2 mb/hr. Recon clearly shows that not to be the case.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#880 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:52 am

Hi all,

please remember that if you post tweets you are responsible for the information in those tweets being reasonably accurate. I don't want to scare anyone away from posting a tweet but if you know or suspect it's not accurate don't post it. Treat it like you would if you posted the information yourself. Contents of tweets should not violate S2K standards.

Thanks!
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