2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.

Well anything is possible of course. It would just be highly anomalous.

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The lster we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of sereng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°

It may well be that the hurricane season runs later than usual this year. 2005 was pumping out storms until Dec 31. Not really expecting that here but an encore presentation seems plausible.

[SFLcane]

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Check this out. It could very come from the Caribbean. If this ridging is around its 2020 who says no from the east. Eventually though I suspect this current pattern will break down to more of an east coast trof as we get deeper into Oct.

[Loveweather12]

When could the is possibly form? Couldn’t see the dates? And I was surprised a storm might form ATL and come in from East?

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Check this out. It could very come from the Caribbean. If this ridging is around its 2020 who says no from the east. Eventually though I suspect this current pattern will break down to more of an east coast trof as we get deeper into Oct.

https://i.imgur.com/4EUhXkS.gif

[MarioProtVI]

There’s been a wall of shear over the western Caribbean since at least 2011. Why should it let up just now? Furthermore, shear thus far has been consistently higher than in a typical Niña year, hence lower-than-expected ACE to date. At this point I think the western Caribbean will continue to be a “dead zone” as far as major hurricanes are concerned, owing to the influence of Niño-like TUTT and STJ activity. As someone previously mentioned, another Michael in the Gulf of Mexico would be exceptional.

This aged extremely poorly given the current situation.

[Hurricaneman]

Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The later we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of seeng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°

And a wave currently near the CV islands I believe so it looks like it’s not a phantom but need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean by late this month again it looks like

[SconnieCane]

Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The later we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of seeng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°

And a wave currently near the CV islands I believe so it looks like it’s not a phantom but need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean by late this month again it looks like

...and Delta is booking right along over waters where the warmth goes very deep...a cold wake won't be much if any of an issue.

[TheStormExpert]

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.

In mid-late October threats to Florida and the remainder of the U.S. East Coast from the east are very uncommon. Don’t even think I can recall of one. Now if it’s another wave or something that manages to get into the Western Caribbean then that seems far more believable.

[SFLcane]

Who’s ready to this this Caribbean thing again?

[SFLcane]

Still loading but strong long range signal from the GEFS. Development starts around 240hrs from the far SW Caribbean heading north.

[Loveweather12]

More runs are hinting at development?

Who’s ready to this this Caribbean thing again?

[Shell Mound]

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.

In mid-late October threats to Florida and the remainder of the U.S. East Coast from the east are very uncommon. Don’t even think I can recall of one. Now if it’s another wave or something that manages to get into the Western Caribbean then that seems far more believable.

There have been four (M)H impacts on the east coast of Florida in October/November since 1851: 1904 (C1), 1935 (C2), 1941 (C2), and King ‘50 (C4). (Additionally, Inez ‘66 [C1] also struck the Keys from the east.) While quite rare, these impacts do occur from time to time. The 1935 “Yankee” hurricane is noteworthy standout, as is Cat-4 King ‘50, the latter of which rapidly deepened pre-landfall. The October ‘41 system intensified into a 105-knot Cat-3 in the Bahamas before striking Dade County as a Cat-2.

[SFLcane]

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/uAvc6gk.gif

Cue "Jaws" theme...

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

LOL watch this one go way wide right of the peninsula. Maybe we can name it Norwood.

[Loveweather12]

Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

LOL watch this one go way wide right of the peninsula. Maybe we can name it Scott Norwood.

[northjaxpro]

Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.

[LarryWx]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

Look at the progged rainfall from these active members! Arguably, this is as strong a long range signal as any yet from the W Caribbean on the GEFS! So, it looks like we MAY get a 3rd Oct W Car TC. When I get time, I'd like to find the years that had 3+ in Oct.



As noted, by you, climo would very strongly favor anything developing there that late (10/17-19) to recurve either over or east of FL per this:

[toad strangler]

Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come

Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.

I'm not complacent. It was a joke.

[northjaxpro]

Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come

Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.

I'm not complacent. It was a joke.

No problem. Just a friendly reminder though!