Jr0d wrote:DestinHurricane wrote:for Laura they predicted 15-20 and 17 feet was recorded. Sally had higher than expected surge, particularly from Pensacola to Destin.
Laura's surge was not as widespread as originally forecast....the 17' recorded surge was in a rural area.
With Sally, Mobile Bay got lucky because where Sally hit. The surge there was no where near the forecast in Mobile Bay.
While most of us on here know why the left side of the storm will have much less surge or even lower water levels, this is not the case for many in the warning area. When the surge is significantly lower than forecast(as a result of being on the left side), this can lead to complacency for future storms.
As for Laura: That's not how the surge forecasts work. The given values have a 10% chance of being exceeded for each area, and the values are given as a potential for surge. Because there's track uncertainty these will cover a wider area than surge actually occurs in. The 15-20ft area was all prone to surge at that level with potential track deviations. A more specific surge forecast would be misleading and could be catastrophic with last minute shifts.
Think NHC + the media needs to work on messaging because A LOT of people missed this with Laura, seemingly you included.
