Florida Weather

[toad strangler]

Looks like we will watch yet another hurricane pass us by in this record-setting year even during the month peninsula Florida is most vulnerable. Folks along the Northern Gulf coast can’t catch a break this year it seems

Yep, We are getting real close to the end of historic climo action. Only two November hurricanes have made US landfall in November since 1900. Correct me if I wrong on that ..... 1985 Kate in Michael territory (Mexico Beach) was the last. So just 3 plus more weeks and we should be sitting pretty. Should ....

[TheStormExpert]

Well after a quick two day tease two weeks ago of dew points below 70° we’ve been hovering in dew points ranging anywhere from low 70’s to upper 70’s since! The NAO is negative and you wouldn’t even notice.

[psyclone]

Record high of 94 @KTPA yesterday with mid to upper 70's dewpoints yielding triple digit heat indices. Last week's taste of Fall is a distant memory. Fortunately it is October so it won't be long before we get better...

[psyclone]

I might be tempting fate here but I suspect Nate was the late season storm in 2017 that should have hit Florida but didn't and I think Delta was the late monster we feared in 2020...and it isn't headed here. I no longer fear cane season this year for Florida and accordingly...i have begun consuming my cane season supplies... Now watch this become the ultimate jinx!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep me to. I had 6cases of water. Now down to 2. Peanut butter crackers and tuna and chips that were part hurricane supply is disappearing. I hope I'm not jinx either. Usually around the 20th is the last chance. So we will see.

[stpeteweathergal]

I'm not a model watcher, that's why I'm here ingesting everybody's posts. Has anybody seen long term models predicting Florida's next cool front? I'm over these 100 something "feels like" days and have my first vacation to Orlando in a couple of weeks. I'll even take dry front to drop the dew points. Any insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not a model watcher, that's why I'm here ingesting everybody's posts. Has anybody seen long term models predicting Florida's next cool front? I'm over these 100 something "feels like" days and have my first vacation to Orlando in a couple of weeks. I'll even take dry front to drop the dew points. Any insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

I’m not buying anything in the models beyond 3-5 days as they’ve been horrendous this year in the tropics.

[TheStormExpert]

I might be tempting fate here but I suspect Nate was the late season storm in 2017 that should have hit Florida but didn't and I think Delta was the late monster we feared in 2020...and it isn't headed here. I no longer fear cane season this year for Florida and accordingly...i have begun consuming my cane season supplies... Now watch this become the ultimate jinx!

I’ve been downplaying things with the invisible Florida hurricane shield and nothing has happened yet.

[TheStormExpert]

After about a week of gloomy, damp, dreary conditions with over 10” of rain, we FINALLY got a nice almost cloud-free day here in South Florida. Dew points are just at 70°, and humidity is currently 58%.

I guess we’re in the subsidence just east of Delta.

[gatorcane]

Might be another front on the way looking at the long-range Euro, just maybe it makes it through South Florida although wishful thinking since usually we need to wait until around 3rd of 4th week of October for the first real front and the rainy season to end.

[chaser1]

I'm not a model watcher, that's why I'm here ingesting everybody's posts. Has anybody seen long term models predicting Florida's next cool front? I'm over these 100 something "feels like" days and have my first vacation to Orlando in a couple of weeks. I'll even take dry front to drop the dew points. Any insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Well, for what it's worth the dew points have lowered just a bit here in the Orlando area. That said, two of my friends went into Magic Kingdom today and said that the oppressive heat was not enjoyable or magical. I don't see enough on the horizon yet to make me believe that Central Florida will experience any chilly days .... like in the low 80's haha any time soon. Next front could bring a wind shift but that'll quickly be from the northeast (with minimal lowering of mid level heights). Add LaNina to the mix and this may be a pretty warm Fall - Yuck!

I think I hear Mt. Washington calling my name

[psyclone]

CPC outlooks are showing cooler and drier conditions over the next 14 days. I suspect if we get more tropical development in the western caribbean it will lift out east of Florida. The season isn't technically over...but the writing is on the wall and it's getting louder each day.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Anybody look at CPC nao/ao outlook. Damn negative if it holds.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

[gatorcane]

Anybody look at CPC nao/ao outlook. Damn negative if it holds.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

Looks really negative. Some cool weather could be on the way and the rainy season could be ending if that holds.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Might be another front on the way looking at the long-range Euro, just maybe it makes it through South Florida although wishful thinking since usually we need to wait until around 3rd of 4th week of October for the first real front and the rainy season to end.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXY9PLpL/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-us-fh120-240.gif

Yeah by next weekend onwards I'm expecting dry season to completely take a firm hold!

[psyclone]

My NWS point and click shows a high of 80 next saturday after a low of 65. dry, cool and refreshing air is going to flood the field in a week. this looks to hang around for awhile. between that and the calendar this will really turn the screws on hurricane season stateside. I am ready to haul this hurricane season and summer (the hottest on record in the bay area) right to the dumpster and the end for both is reeling in fast...

[toad strangler]

My NWS point and click shows a high of 80 next saturday after a low of 65. dry, cool and refreshing air is going to flood the field in a week. this looks to hang around for awhile. between that and the calendar this will really turn the screws on hurricane season stateside. I am ready to haul this hurricane season and summer (the hottest on record in the bay area) right to the dumpster and the end for both is reeling in fast...

Not so quick for true S FL ... the final slug of CONUS that can see real threats right to Halloween .... we'll see

[FlaWeatherDude]

My NWS point and click shows a high of 80 next saturday after a low of 65. dry, cool and refreshing air is going to flood the field in a week. this looks to hang around for awhile. between that and the calendar this will really turn the screws on hurricane season stateside. I am ready to haul this hurricane season and summer (the hottest on record in the bay area) right to the dumpster and the end for both is reeling in fast...

This Friday's front is definitely happening and will give us a refreshing weekend but thereafter some models bring the front back up to Miami and south Florida. Epsilon could develop in the west Caribbean. Whether it goes north up the Florida Peninsula then up the eastern seaboard OR heads northeast just east of us is up in the air(second scenario would keep us dry)! Regardless cooler drier air should sweep in behind Epsilon. Thou the Euro OP off and on is showing a ridiculous western bias with the trough mid-late next week!

[chaser1]

My NWS point and click shows a high of 80 next saturday after a low of 65. dry, cool and refreshing air is going to flood the field in a week. this looks to hang around for awhile. between that and the calendar this will really turn the screws on hurricane season stateside. I am ready to haul this hurricane season and summer (the hottest on record in the bay area) right to the dumpster and the end for both is reeling in fast...

Ah, be wary of tempting 2020 Whatever rotting vestiges lying dormant in the bowels of that dumpster, might just creepily find it's way back to the Clearwater area

[Hurricane Alexis]

"The front does little for the
temperatures across the area, but it should bring in slightly
drier air, which will help bring down the apparent temperatures
for at least a few days by 5 to 10 degrees."

That's a big change forecasted by NWS Miami for this upcoming week.