Great news!
https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120
2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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CyclonicFury
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Kazmit
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:Great news!
https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120
That's awesome! I assume it will take a little time for Levi to add it to Tropical Tidbits?
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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chris_fit
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.
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SFLcane
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
chris_fit wrote:Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.
Come on now this model has been asleep most of the year until a tropical cyclone is formed.
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GeneratorPower
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:chris_fit wrote:Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.
Come on now this model has been asleep most of the year until a tropical cyclone is formed.
The problem is so bad, now they're *giving* it away.
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SFLcane
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GeneratorPower wrote:SFLcane wrote:chris_fit wrote:Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.
Come on now this model has been asleep most of the year until a tropical cyclone is formed.
The problem is so bad, now they're *giving* it away.
Yep and with those graphics from 2007 lol.
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SFLcane
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GEFS... 
These heading north and east across SFL. We will see if signal there in a week.
These heading north and east across SFL. We will see if signal there in a week.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
That’s 3/4 runs that propagates something from the Western Caribbean.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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SFLcane
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Last edited by SFLcane on Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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SFLcane
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
06z GEFS is now showing development under 200 hrs.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 06z GFS and 00z CMC both show a TC developing in the central MDR this weekend. It looks to be a pretty low latitude, so it could end up in the Caribbean eventually, even if it barely develops in the MDR.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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TheStormExpert
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
With all due respect, it is way too early to be sounding the all clear for South Florida. Let's remember that Wilma didn't hit till late in the month. We're not out of the woods yet.
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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AutoPenalti
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
You’re basing this off a storm that has yet to form???
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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chris_fit
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
You mean like they did a few times with Gamma and Delta? You can't look at track at all this far out, especially with nothing developed yet. Ens/Models at this stage just give us hints of possible development in a general region.
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SFLcane
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
oh lord...nothing has even formed yet we are watching for the potential in the ensembles. No one is breathing easy.
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TheStormExpert
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.
Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.
With all due respect, it is way too early to be sounding the all clear for South Florida. Let's remember that Wilma didn't hit till late in the month. We're not out of the woods yet.
We might not be just yet but we’re quickly getting there! 00z GEFS Ensembles were limited, while 06z shifted east to completely missing Florida now.
Not sure how much more lucky we can get IF we manage to make it the next few weeks without something as the other two seasons like this (1933 and 2005) featured multiple hurricane threats to the peninsula.
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