ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Maybe a little off course?

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

It has been steadily strengthening all morning and the organization is much better than even 4 hours ago, so I would NOT say it is done intensifying, in fact it could intensify quite a bit more. The trend is a better looking storm.

[Blinhart]

Evidently RECON is out there, but the RECON thread isn't being updated, why is that??? I would love to see these data points as they come in.

Anyway back to DELTA discussion, looking at the satellite, looks like the eye is starting to clear out some, and the opening in the eyewall is rotating around, as soon as it closes off again, I think this storm has a chance to get to Cat 4 (130 MPH) again. However even if it doesn't get that strong it will be still very destructive with some extreme surge, and I'm afraid I will be without electricity for a few days.

[GCANE]

Eye shining thru on IR

[tolakram]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

While recon observation, model output, satellite trend, and official NHC forecast clearly indicate additional strengthening into a CAT3? I'm curious why people love to draw conclusions based on personal opinion instead of facts. It's not like there are no available data.

It's just an opinion, people are allowed to give their opinions. I don't see any facts either, especially in the realm of intensity where models and the NHC struggle. This isn't a bash on the NHC, they do better at it than anyone else, but intensity forecasts are historically difficult and inaccurate. S2K has a disclaimer posted at the top of the forum, we removed the requirement to include it in individual posts a few years ago. Opinions and respectful disagreements are acceptable.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Steve]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

It has been steadily strengthening all morning and the organization is much better than even 4 hours ago, so I would NOT say it is done intensifying, in fact it could intensify quite a bit more. The trend is a better looking storm.

NAM's 12km @ 12z shows that while it may fluctuate a bit between now and landfall, it keeps it around the same pressure (970's). Maybe it will be starts and stops as different forces act on and with it. ICON 06z is around 972 at landfall as well. You'd think that 960-975 range at landfall is likely at this point, at least that's what I think.

[Blinhart]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

While recon observation, model output, satellite trend, and official NHC forecast clearly indicate additional strengthening into a CAT3? I'm curious why people love to draw conclusions based on personal opinion instead of facts. It's not like there are no available data.

It's just an opinion, people are allowed to give their opinions. I don't see any facts either, especially in the realm of intensity where models and the NHC struggle. This isn't a bash on the NHC, they do better at it than anyone else, but intensity forecasts are historically difficult and inaccurate. S2K has a disclaimer posted at the top of the forum, we removed the requirement to include it in individual posts a few years ago. Opinions and respectful disagreements are acceptable.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

That is why I kept the disclaimer on my posts.

[tolakram]

Evidently RECON is out there, but the RECON thread isn't being updated, why is that??? I would love to see these data points as they come in.

Anyway back to DELTA discussion, looking at the satellite, looks like the eye is starting to clear out some, and the opening in the eyewall is rotating around, as soon as it closes off again, I think this storm has a chance to get to Cat 4 (130 MPH) again. However even if it doesn't get that strong it will be still very destructive with some extreme surge, and I'm afraid I will be without electricity for a few days.

Why? There's no one with time to do it at the moment is my guess. I'm at work, and we're all volunteers. You can monitor aircraft recon here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Snowman67]

This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.

Agree completely. I went through Ike which was a category 2. I am probably 80 miles from the coast and had significant damage in my area. It was such a massive storm that it had impacts that were very far reaching from the center.

[Cyclenall]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

Is it okay to bump this quote on Thursday to see if it evolved like you laid out here so well? Your analysis is incredible and no matter what you're amazing.

Sure OK to bump. Much thanks for the complement.

So how are we doing today GCANE? How similar is it from forecast?

[cheezyWXguy]

Evidently RECON is out there, but the RECON thread isn't being updated, why is that??? I would love to see these data points as they come in.

Anyway back to DELTA discussion, looking at the satellite, looks like the eye is starting to clear out some, and the opening in the eyewall is rotating around, as soon as it closes off again, I think this storm has a chance to get to Cat 4 (130 MPH) again. However even if it doesn't get that strong it will be still very destructive with some extreme surge, and I'm afraid I will be without electricity for a few days.

Why? There's no one with time to do it at the moment is my guess. I'm at work, and we're all volunteers. You can monitor aircraft recon here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

I started a thread a while back on this over in talking tropics, but I don’t think it got much visibility. Do you or anyone on here know of a way this could be automated so that people like CrazyC83 don’t have to put so much manual work into this? I know the discord has a recon bot.

[FLpanhandle91]

Keep in mind, the further west this goes, the higher the OHC of the waters under it.

[kevin]

New center pass has an Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure of 962.3 mbar so it seems like Delta is still steadily intensifying atm, at least in terms of pressure.

[FLpanhandle91]

Is it okay to bump this quote on Thursday to see if it evolved like you laid out here so well? Your analysis is incredible and no matter what you're amazing.

Sure OK to bump. Much thanks for the complement.

So how are we doing today GCANE? How similar is it from forecast?

Not GCANE, but I feel that once this eyewall closes and clears, we could see some moderate intensification to at least cat 3 status.

[davidiowx]

This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.

Agree completely. I went through Ike which was a category 2. I am probably 80 miles from the coast and had significant damage in my area. It was such a massive storm that it had impacts that were very far reaching from the center.

Yeah I think this is going to be another Ike type scenario. Ike was much stronger than most people think. I was in the med center inside the 610 loop and chimneys were blown off entire apartment blocks. Reliant Stadiums roof had parts of it torn off and it was supposedly rated to handle Cat 5 winds.

Ike had a huge storm surge and a massive wind field with it, which cause destruction for hundreds of miles. Delta appears to be on track to arrive in a similar size (maybe a tad smaller?) with some significant storm surge as well.

[Tireman4]

Evidently RECON is out there, but the RECON thread isn't being updated, why is that??? I would love to see these data points as they come in.

Anyway back to DELTA discussion, looking at the satellite, looks like the eye is starting to clear out some, and the opening in the eyewall is rotating around, as soon as it closes off again, I think this storm has a chance to get to Cat 4 (130 MPH) again. However even if it doesn't get that strong it will be still very destructive with some extreme surge, and I'm afraid I will be without electricity for a few days.

Why? There's no one with time to do it at the moment is my guess. I'm at work, and we're all volunteers. You can monitor aircraft recon here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Mark, how could you? You know S2K is your only priority. Sheesh young man. LOL....

[dukeblue219]

Evidently RECON is out there, but the RECON thread isn't being updated, why is that??? I would love to see these data points as they come in.

Anyway back to DELTA discussion, looking at the satellite, looks like the eye is starting to clear out some, and the opening in the eyewall is rotating around, as soon as it closes off again, I think this storm has a chance to get to Cat 4 (130 MPH) again. However even if it doesn't get that strong it will be still very destructive with some extreme surge, and I'm afraid I will be without electricity for a few days.

Why? There's no one with time to do it at the moment is my guess. I'm at work, and we're all volunteers. You can monitor aircraft recon here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

I started a thread a while back on this over in talking tropics, but I don’t think it got much visibility. Do you or anyone on here know of a way this could be automated so that people like CrazyC83 don’t have to put so much manual work into this? I know the discord has a recon bot.

Honestly there are so many other websites that present live recon data in various graphical or textual ways that I've never bothered with the recon forum. Apologies to those who take the time to update it, but why not just use Tropicalatlantic.com or tropicaltidbits.com?

[tolakram]

Evidently RECON is out there, but the RECON thread isn't being updated, why is that??? I would love to see these data points as they come in.

Anyway back to DELTA discussion, looking at the satellite, looks like the eye is starting to clear out some, and the opening in the eyewall is rotating around, as soon as it closes off again, I think this storm has a chance to get to Cat 4 (130 MPH) again. However even if it doesn't get that strong it will be still very destructive with some extreme surge, and I'm afraid I will be without electricity for a few days.

Why? There's no one with time to do it at the moment is my guess. I'm at work, and we're all volunteers. You can monitor aircraft recon here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

I started a thread a while back on this over in talking tropics, but I don’t think it got much visibility. Do you or anyone on here know of a way this could be automated so that people like CrazyC83 don’t have to put so much manual work into this? I know the discord has a recon bot.

Not at the moment, decent idea though.

[supercane4867]

Eye is clearing out on IR

[GCANE]

Is it okay to bump this quote on Thursday to see if it evolved like you laid out here so well? Your analysis is incredible and no matter what you're amazing.

Sure OK to bump. Much thanks for the complement.

So how are we doing today GCANE? How similar is it from forecast?

The big fly in the ointment was the unforeseen collapse before Cancun.
It just came into the GoM weaker than expected.
Conditions in the GoM look about the same relative to that discussion.
So, about one notch down from initial estimates.