ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Wow, 954 mbar extrap is far lower than I expected. At this rate, Delta will surpass its previous lowest pressure.

With an extrapolated pressure drop from 963.2 mbar to 954.2 mbar between 1636z and 2024z, Delta is intensifying at a rate of 2.37 mb/hr. If it maintains this rate for just 7 more hours, it will surpass Laura’s peak intensity.

[supercane4867]

ADT may not be too far off. CI holding steady at 6.0

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 944.9mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[kevin]

Unflagged 119 kts flight level winds in the NE quadrant, SFMR 87 kts.

[tiger_deF]

It's a major alright

[CrazyC83]

As far as the current intensity, I'd go with 95 kt. I'd want to see higher SFMR values in the NE quad but it's only a partial sample.

[FLpanhandle91]

202900 2453N 09258W 6967 02853 9696 +129 //// 154115 118 087 006 01

Cat 4 flight level winds.

[xironman]

LOL, something is wrong

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 114 kts (131.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 kts (42.6 mph)

[ColdMiser123]

119 kt FL wind supports 105-110 kt at the surface, blending that with the peak SFMR of 91 kt found, 100 kt is a reasonable intensity to go with.

[GCANE]

IMHO would be a big shock if see an extrap below 960 mb

954.2

[wx98]

SFMR hasn’t caught up, but those FL winds are very impressive. A blend is a Cat 3 easily.

[MBryant]

New Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure measured by recon is 954.2 mbar!

https://i.imgur.com/VFjFyOL.png

Does this indicate the strongest winds are in the Southwestern portion of the Hurricane? The opposite of typical? or is the map not facing with North at the top?

[northjaxpro]

I am beginning to wonder are we seeing a period of RI? It is worrisome to me that it is looking that way right now!

[FLpanhandle91]

Slight lack of convection in the NE quad preventing those winds from mixing down. They will shortly. I believe NHC upgrades to cat 3 with 115mph at the update.

[ColdMiser123]

Unflagged 118 kts flight level winds in the NE quadrant, SFMR 87 kts.

119 kt is unflagged FL wind, the 03 at the end means that the 61 kt SFMR is questionable.

[Blinhart]

Slight lack of convection in the NE quad preventing those winds from mixing down. They will shortly. I believe NHC upgrades to cat 3 with 115mph at the update.

I agree and I would think they would have to up max intensity to 130 MPH, the way this looks if not 140. I definitely think this will be making a landfall at at least a Cat 3.

[kevin]

Unflagged 118 kts flight level winds in the NE quadrant, SFMR 87 kts.

119 kt is unflagged FL wind, the 03 at the end means that the 61 kt SFMR is questionable.

Thanks for the correction .

[GCANE]

Firing on all cylinders
72 mm/hr rain rate.
A lot of headroom to go up another notch.

[ColdMiser123]

Unflagged 118 kts flight level winds in the NE quadrant, SFMR 87 kts.

119 kt is unflagged FL wind, the 03 at the end means that the 61 kt SFMR is questionable.

Thanks for the correction .

No problem! A 02, 04, 06, or 09 at the end would indicate questionable FL winds.

[plasticup]

LOL, something is wrong

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 114 kts (131.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 kts (42.6 mph)

FL in the eyewall, SFMR in the eye

[NDG]

Dropsonde, pressure down to 959 mb, that's a 8 mb drop in 4 hours.

959mb (28.32 inHg) Surface (Sea Level)