ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galvbay]

Sitting on the edge of my chair now here in East Chambers county. Not wishing this storm on anybody but it can start that northern turn anytime now. Tides have actually dropped since this morning with this north wind. Will be standing by in Smith Point, TX

[northjaxpro]

GCANE, you have been right on top of this! I thought it would definitely re-intensify, but it is doing it much quicker than I anticipated. I am fearful that Delta is really beginning to deepen. Terrible trend going into the evening here..

Much thanks Northjaxpro.
The setup in the mid GOM was pretty evident while it was still in the W Carib.
Thank God or for what ever reason it feel apart before Cancun.
I shudder to think what this would be now if it didn't.

Part of me wonders if falling apart before Cancun is what let it become the beast it is now. If it had kept the intact core than we might be looking at a slightly stronger but much smaller storm. Right as the core fell apart the interaction with what was left of it over land broadened the circulation significantly, which was a crucial step in the development of the Delta we know now. I think this will have far more effects than even a cat 5 tiny pinhole right over SW LA

Yep. Great observation. Also, the frictional effects of passing over the Yucatan yesterday helped to facilitate this process with the circulation as well.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Predicted second peak of 110 knots. May very well make landfall as a major in LA.

[ElectricStorm]

I would say the black M ball gets a lot closer to the coast.

Yep. It's pretty close to the coast now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

From the discussion.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on
this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period
of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends,
although the various rapid intensification indices are not
enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the
global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing
over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening
is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The
system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following
shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

[northjaxpro]

From the discussion.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on
this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period
of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends,
although the various rapid intensification indices are not
enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the
global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing
over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening
is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The
system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following
shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Yep, my instincts were correct. No doubt, we are seeing a period of RI, which I alluded to previously.

[Beef Stew]

Some impressive mixing going on.

[KimmieLa]

Comparing the Delta thread to f.e. Laura and Sally it is still surprisingly quiet. I think this one might surprise a lot of people by how strong is is/will become. I think many people checked out once the Wilma level potential wasn't realized, but this is shaping up to be one massive major hurricane right now.

The people this will most be impacted by most might not have access to internet yet?

Or they could be getting ready to bug out...

Or, we are just plain old hurricane weary. It's certainly been a long season. Praying for my fellow Louisianians! Stay safe, regardless of where this heads.

[Nimbus]

I don't see a strong trough on the water vapor loop yet?
00z runs will have a new initialization but its getting late for any *new* warnings.

[TheStormExpert]

From the discussion.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on
this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period
of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends,
although the various rapid intensification indices are not
enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the
global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing
over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening
is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The
system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following
shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Global models have been showing this for a few days so it's not all too surprising. Should start gradually weakening (hopefully) tomorrow.

[aspen]

Recon found a closed eyewall this time...oh ****

[Fancy1001]

Looks like delta is trying to get back to cat 4.

[Blinhart]

From the discussion.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on
this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period
of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends,
although the various rapid intensification indices are not
enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the
global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing
over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening
is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The
system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following
shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Global models have been showing this for a few days so it's not all too surprising. Should start gradually weakening (hopefully) tomorrow.

Looking at the advisory, looks like it won't be really weakening until the outer edges of the core starting to interact with land, so not looking good.

[kevin]

Looks like delta is trying to get back to cat 4.

[SoupBone]

It definitely seems to have picked up a much more north movement now. Is this earlier than forecast?

[ConvergenceZone]

has the peak intensity forecast gone up? The said something on the weather channel of a potential Cat at landfall now. I didn't see that earlier. Having difficulty pulling up maps at the moment.

[Nimbus]

It definitely seems to have picked up a much more north movement now. Is this earlier than forecast?

Traveling in nearly the same direction as the forecast shear isn't going to help the cause much.

[Ubuntwo]

has the peak intensity forecast gone up? The said something on the weather channel of a potential Cat at landfall now. I didn't see that earlier. Having difficulty pulling up maps at the moment.

Yeah, they forecast a 110kt peak. Landfall is between forecast points but the one before is 105kt, so could be low end Cat 3/high end Cat 2 then.

[Nimbus]

has the peak intensity forecast gone up? The said something on the weather channel of a potential Cat at landfall now. I didn't see that earlier. Having difficulty pulling up maps at the moment.

Yeah, they forecast a 110kt peak. Landfall is between forecast points but the one before is 105kt, so could be low end Cat 3/high end Cat 2 then.

They just flew over buoy 42002 where wind gusts are near 60 mph and that is about 105 miles from the eye.

[MissKandi]

Currently raining pretty heavily here. On and off all day.

ETA: Location is 15 miles East of Lafayette, LA