2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/HP5mdJX.gif

6z will probably be into Belize

It's clearly picking up on something down there so i am watching.

[boca]

The fact that the westerlies are moving south and the time of year would show a NE track across central Cuba and thru the central Bahamas. If the storm forms closer to the Yucatan which is 85 west and doesn’t form at 80 west, then it’s threat to Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point it depends where abouts this area of interest is when the trough catches it that will determine whether or not Florida is in play. A further west area of interest will get pulled NE closer to Florida, especially if it is near or over the Yucatán like Wilma.

GEFS is all over the place on the 12z and 18z runs.

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that the westerlies are moving south and the time of year would show a NE track across central Cuba and thru the central Bahamas. If the storm forms closer to the Yucatan which is 85 west and doesn’t form at 80 west, then it’s threat to Florida.

It’s not uncommon to see tracks out of the Western Caribbean completely missing Florida to the south and east while still affecting Cuba and The Bahamas at least. Can’t remember the last storm to take such a track but it’s happened more so than not.

[toad strangler]

The fact that the westerlies are moving south and the time of year would show a NE track across central Cuba and thru the central Bahamas. If the storm forms closer to the Yucatan which is 85 west and doesn’t form at 80 west, then it’s threat to Florida.

It’s not uncommon to see tracks out of the Western Caribbean completely missing Florida to the south and east while still affecting Cuba and The Bahamas at least. Can’t remember the last storm to take such a track but it’s happened more so than not.

dude we ALL KNOW THAT. But these are 10 plus day runs ....

[toad strangler]

0z CMC also has something brewing in the far SW Caribbean at the end of run...

[SFLcane]

I will leave this here the GEFS at 168hrs already has a couple hurricanes down there.

[TheStormExpert]

Most 00z GEFS Ensembles miss Florida to the east @ 258hrs.

[caneman]

Most 00z GEFS Ensembles miss Florida to the east @ 258hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/lHIU4Sd.png

That is 258 hours out!! That chances of that being exactly correct are about the same as my odds of winning the lotto.

[gatorcane]

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/85xpF7qj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh192-312.gif

Indeed...

[kevin mathis]

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane formed at about 80 west...Landfall on October 24...Hmmmm

[SFLcane]

Look who’s walking up...

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS...

[AutoPenalti]

It only takes a finger ridge like what we saw with Delta...

[GeneratorPower]

It only takes a finger ridge like what we saw with Delta...

All the gulf activity this year shows that Dorian-like recurve isn’t a guarantee.

[otowntiger]

It only takes a finger ridge like what we saw with Delta...

All the gulf activity this year shows that Dorian-like recurve isn’t a guarantee.

Never a guarantee- but hopefully still likely. But all it takes is one to slip thru the cracks. Let’s hope 2020 has already done all it’s going to do in terms of tropical weather calamity.

[Blown Away]

O6z GEFS...

https://i.postimg.cc/7YW82yLZ/AEFD78-D4-1438-4-DF9-9428-BB1-BB42-D5-F93.jpg

Nearly all October hurricanes that impact SFL from the NW Caribbean moved W of Havana... That is a good benchmark watching the modeling, the 06z GFS has a hurricane moving just E of Havana and missed SFL...

[boca]

O6z GEFS...

https://i.postimg.cc/7YW82yLZ/AEFD78-D4-1438-4-DF9-9428-BB1-BB42-D5-F93.jpg

Nearly all October hurricanes that impact SFL from the NW Caribbean moved W of Havana... That is a good benchmark watching the modeling, the 06z GFS has a hurricane moving just E of Havana and missed SFL...

Good point the track looks to be 40 or 50 miles east of Havana on the latest run.

[ronjon]

Most 00z GEFS Ensembles miss Florida to the east @ 258hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/lHIU4Sd.png

That is 258 hours out!! That chances of that being exactly correct are about the same as my odds of winning the lotto.

Well probably slightly better than winning the lotto but not much. Seriously, anything that forms in the western Caribbean or south of Cuba is a danger to Florida this time of year. All we have to do is think back to 2005 or look in the history books at Tampa's last major hurricane in 1921 to be on our guard. Models increasingly pointing to genesis with the GFS, CMC, and ensembles originating low pressure in the SW Caribbean in 10 days.