2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3241 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:28 pm

Fantasyland on 18z GFS...but its a nightmare for S Florida. This is the strongest run yet for the western Caribbean modeled low pressure.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020101118&fh=336
1 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3242 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:32 pm

The big question that remains and will most likely be answered in the next two weeks is whether or not South Florida has used up its 9 lives or not. Let's hope this cat still has some life in it.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3243 Postby blp » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:52 pm

GEFS stronger and more concentrated.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3244 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:59 pm

The Happy Hour GEFS is saying that 2020 will have a good chance to be only the 3rd season on record going back to 1851 with 3 October W Caribbean geneses. The other two are 2005 (3rd one was Beta with genesis on 10/26) and 1870 (3rd one had genesis on 10/29). So, 2020 would by a good number of days have the earliest 3rd Oct W Car genesis on record:

Image
7 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3245 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:38 pm

Larry, care to make a poll lol? So this year will either remain with two Caribbean storm formation, tie the record with perhaps this long range storm threat, or even exceed and beat the record with a total of 4 (or even more?) Tropical cyclones to develop in the Caribbean this record-breaking year. My guess? I think we'll see 4 storms form in the Caribbean before it's all said & done.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3246 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:00 pm

chaser1 wrote:Larry, care to make a poll lol? So this year will either remain with two Caribbean storm formation, tie the record with perhaps this long range storm threat, or even exceed and beat the record with a total of 4 (or even more?) Tropical cyclones to develop in the Caribbean this record-breaking year. My guess? I think we'll see 4 storms form in the Caribbean before it's all said & done.


Chaser1,
Just to clarify, the record I'm referring to is W Caribbean (W of 75W) TS+ geneses in October. Regarding the entire Caribbean, 2005 actually has 4 since Alpha formed on 10/22/2005 in the E Caribbean. I'm nearly 100% sure that 2005's 4 is the record for the most Oct geneses in the entire Caribbean in Oct.

Are you predicting 4+ in Oct for the entire Caribbean or just for W Caribbean? I'm currently going with tieing 2005 and 1870 for the WESTERN Caribbean at 3 based on model consensus.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3247 Postby blp » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:02 pm

Meanwhile PARA says you other models have it wrong. He says ridge pushing this into CA.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3248 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:54 pm

blp wrote:Meanwhile PARA says you other models have it wrong. He says ridge pushing this into CA.

https://i.ibb.co/FhjW8xx/gfsp-z500a-watl-51.png


300 hours lol.... he isn’t saying anything other than a potential storm
2 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3249 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:25 pm

LarryWx wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Larry, care to make a poll lol? So this year will either remain with two Caribbean storm formation, tie the record with perhaps this long range storm threat, or even exceed and beat the record with a total of 4 (or even more?) Tropical cyclones to develop in the Caribbean this record-breaking year. My guess? I think we'll see 4 storms form in the Caribbean before it's all said & done.


Chaser1,
Just to clarify, the record I'm referring to is W Caribbean (W of 75W) TS+ geneses in October. Regarding the entire Caribbean, 2005 actually has 4 since Alpha formed on 10/22/2005 in the E Caribbean. I'm nearly 100% sure that 2005's 4 is the record for the most Oct geneses in the entire Caribbean in Oct.

Are you predicting 4+ in Oct for the entire Caribbean or just for W Caribbean? I'm currently going with tieing 2005 and 1870 for the WESTERN Caribbean at 3 based on model consensus.


Ahhh, understood. Up to now I hadn't really thought out east vs west genesis, but certainly do feel that there will be 4 storms forming in the Caribbean basin as a whole. Having said that, i'd be inclined to guess that all four would in fact form west of 75W.
2 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3250 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:46 pm

toad strangler wrote:
blp wrote:Meanwhile PARA says you other models have it wrong. He says ridge pushing this into CA.

https://i.ibb.co/FhjW8xx/gfsp-z500a-watl-51.png


300 hours lol.... he isn’t saying anything other than a potential storm


Here's what I think. Pretend there's no storm in 300 hours but let's acknowledge that we are pushing deeper into a LaNina pattern. Your choices are the following:
A) A sweeping cold front will drive through South Florida like 100,000 crazed screaming banchies OR
B) A sharp trough will drop into the Mississippi Valley within a very progressive pattern, yet the trough will then quickly and sharply pull up and out leaving Southern Georgia and Florida under the influence of warm high pressure and a WSW mid to upper level flow.

I'll place my $20 on "B". Now...... if by chance there happens to be a hurricane lurking to the south at that time?? :double: But hey, that's 300 hr's away so how 'bout we just sit back and check back in 100 hours from now and see what things look like then.
2 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3251 Postby blp » Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:07 pm

chaser1 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
blp wrote:Meanwhile PARA says you other models have it wrong. He says ridge pushing this into CA.

https://i.ibb.co/FhjW8xx/gfsp-z500a-watl-51.png


300 hours lol.... he isn’t saying anything other than a potential storm


Here's what I think. Pretend there's no storm in 300 hours but let's acknowledge that we are pushing deeper into a LaNina pattern. Your choices are the following:
A) A sweeping cold front will drive through South Florida like 100,000 crazed screaming banchies OR
B) A sharp trough will drop into the Mississippi Valley within a very progressive pattern, yet the trough will then quickly and sharply pull up and out leaving Southern Georgia and Florida under the influence of warm high pressure and a WSW mid to upper level flow.

I'll place my $20 on "B". Now...... if by chance there happens to be a hurricane lurking to the south at that time?? :double: But hey, that's 300 hr's away so how 'bout we just sit back and check back in 100 hours from now and see what things look like then.


Exactly, those are the two options in the models right now. That was my only point in the post which he missed... As we work closer to the end of October even throw in option c storm heading ENE through the Carribean which is still possible. October and November have the most unpredictable paths of the season.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3252 Postby blp » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:17 am

00z GFS still holds to idea the storm heading North.
CMC moves over CA. Looks like the trough is late on the CMC and allows it to move over CA.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2651
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3253 Postby USTropics » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:50 am

LarryWx wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Larry, care to make a poll lol? So this year will either remain with two Caribbean storm formation, tie the record with perhaps this long range storm threat, or even exceed and beat the record with a total of 4 (or even more?) Tropical cyclones to develop in the Caribbean this record-breaking year. My guess? I think we'll see 4 storms form in the Caribbean before it's all said & done.


Chaser1,
Just to clarify, the record I'm referring to is W Caribbean (W of 75W) TS+ geneses in October. Regarding the entire Caribbean, 2005 actually has 4 since Alpha formed on 10/22/2005 in the E Caribbean. I'm nearly 100% sure that 2005's 4 is the record for the most Oct geneses in the entire Caribbean in Oct.

Are you predicting 4+ in Oct for the entire Caribbean or just for W Caribbean? I'm currently going with tieing 2005 and 1870 for the WESTERN Caribbean at 3 based on model consensus.


In the modern satellite era, 2005 is the only season to have experienced 4 storms in the Caribbean during October. Before this, you have to go all the way back to 1870 to see a strong case for at least 4 (possibly 5 on reanalysis):

Hurricane Six
First reported on October 5th, made landfall on October 7th in Cuba as a cat3. An estimated 1200 deaths occurred, still one of the deadliest tropical systems on record for Cuba.

Hurricane Nine
First reported in the western Caribbean on October 19th. Made landfall on October 20th in Cuba as a cat2. An estimated 52 deaths occurred.

Hurricane Ten
First reported by ship on October 23rd. While this was estimated to obtain hurricane force north of GA on the 24th, reanalysis suggests the system originated over the central Caribbean before move through the Mona Passage.

Hurricane Eleven
First reported on October 27th in the western Caribbean. Reanalysis suggests this obtained hurricane force winds before interacting with the mountainous terrain of Yucatan. It's estimated to have then headed NE towards the GOM. It was again reported on November 3rd by a passing ship as a hurricane south of Florida.
3 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1246
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3254 Postby FireRat » Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:04 am

I see the models seem to be locking on landfall or approach dates for South FL and Cuba, Oct 24 and Oct 25. This is quite interesting, because 10/24 happens to be the anniversary of Wilma in South FL and 10/25 the anniversary of the Tampa Hurricane of 1921. These dates have been historically big ones for FL during the late October time frame, and here we might go again.

It will be interesting to see if the models keep locking onto those two dates as the big dates to watch, as we get closer and closer to that time frame.
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3255 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:29 am

blp wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
300 hours lol.... he isn’t saying anything other than a potential storm


Here's what I think. Pretend there's no storm in 300 hours but let's acknowledge that we are pushing deeper into a LaNina pattern. Your choices are the following:
A) A sweeping cold front will drive through South Florida like 100,000 crazed screaming banchies OR
B) A sharp trough will drop into the Mississippi Valley within a very progressive pattern, yet the trough will then quickly and sharply pull up and out leaving Southern Georgia and Florida under the influence of warm high pressure and a WSW mid to upper level flow.

I'll place my $20 on "B". Now...... if by chance there happens to be a hurricane lurking to the south at that time?? :double: But hey, that's 300 hr's away so how 'bout we just sit back and check back in 100 hours from now and see what things look like then.


Exactly, those are the two options in the models right now. That was my only point in the post which he missed... As we work closer to the end of October even throw in option c storm heading ENE through the Carribean which is still possible. October and November have the most unpredictable paths of the season.


Boy is THAT a fact! Late season storms can be very squirrely!
2 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3256 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:49 am

Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well. :eek:

Image
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3257 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:52 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/RMfe8sp.gif


Indeed. Having said that, this is EXACTLY where you want to be 300+ hours out ;-)

Image
Last edited by chris_fit on Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3258 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:56 am

Shades of Charley and Wilma

Image
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3259 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:06 am

As wxman57 mentioned and there is your Wilma 2.0 possibility. :eek:

3 days before my 43 birthday what a present.

Image
3 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3260 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:17 am

chris_fit wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/RMfe8sp.gif


Indeed. Having said that, this is EXACTLY where you want to be 300+ hours out ;-)

https://i.imgur.com/839OC70.png


Signs of genesis are ~210 hours out, very likely this storm is not a phantom. However ultimate track and intensity still very much up in the air.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: lolitx and 51 guests