Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1317060874620882944




 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1317060763350159360

[chris_fit]

The mean GEFS for 06Z are, once again, well west, south, and slower than the operational. Yuck.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[TheStormExpert]

GEFS has definitely trended west since the 00z run.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe Hurricane Irene (1999) could be a good analog storm at least in terms of track?

I always had a funny feeling a track like this was more possible over a track like Wilma this season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(1999)

[kevin]

The GFS ensemble has been trending more ominous for Florida in the last 2 runs. The latest ensemble seems to be further west with 10/21 members directly making landfall on Florida as a TD or stronger (48%) within 300 hours.

[SFLcane]

The mean GEFS for 06Z are, once again, well west, south, and slower than the operational. Yuck.

https://i.imgur.com/JcdPx9s.png

Ouch!

[SFLcane]

[Shell Mound]

The mean GEFS for 06Z are, once again, well west, south, and slower than the operational. Yuck.

https://i.imgur.com/JcdPx9s.png

Ouch!

The good news is that the westerly members are weaker than the easterly ones, implying stronger shear. 06Z GEFS members are much weaker vs. earlier ones.

[SFLcane]

The mean GEFS for 06Z are, once again, well west, south, and slower than the operational. Yuck.

https://i.imgur.com/JcdPx9s.png

Ouch!

The good news is that the westerly members are weaker than the easterly ones, implying stronger shear.

No sir...

There some potent hurricanes there. Can’t take away if this hold it’s getting quite ominous for FL.

[TheStormExpert]

Lets see if the 12z GFS and GEFS holds firm or flips around again.

[SFLcane]

Lets see if the 12z GFS and GEFS holds firm or flips around again.

More shifting back and forth We'll finally get some better clarity next week. Should be interesting!

[chaser1]

0z Euro +216
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201016/c827fa4bd82fb3b1f94a61e1d4d55ed2.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

it still doesn't do much at all with the NW Caribbean disturbance, and instead develops a separate baroclinic low over the eastern GOMEX, which it takes rapidly NE to NNE through the SE CONUS.

Oh EURO...... ever so late to every party this season. Give 'er about another 72-96 hours and i'm guessing we'll begin to see it loudly pinging with an increasingly defined 850mb vorticity signature in the W. Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

Ouch!

The good news is that the westerly members are weaker than the easterly ones, implying stronger shear.

No sir...

There some potent hurricanes there. Can’t take away if this hold it’s getting quite ominous for FL.

The most recent run (bottom) shows fewer members in the low 950s and more in the mid to upper 950s (mb). So there is a westward, weaker shift.

I’d be more concerned if the GEFS were showing a bunch of sub-950-mb cyclones heading into FL. Threat to FL is increasing, but not strength-wise.

[toad strangler]

GEFS has definitely trended west since the 00z run.

https://i.imgur.com/1MnCM9r.gif

Many of those members fall into the Herbert Box #2 .... if you subscribe to that theory

[TheStormExpert]

The good news is that the westerly members are weaker than the easterly ones, implying stronger shear.

No sir...

There some potent hurricanes there. Can’t take away if this hold it’s getting quite ominous for FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFgdc2Mk/090-CC96-B-154-E-46-A7-BA59-69-C9-ED7-E1-EEB.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/tRfyS9sQ/38-D3-AFA2-D9-BD-43-AC-8-BF0-36-D3-AB5099-A8.png

The most recent run (bottom) shows fewer members in the low 950s and more in the mid to upper 950s (mb). So there is a westward, weaker shift.

I’d be more concerned if the GEFS were showing a bunch of sub-950-mb cyclones heading into FL. Threat to FL is increasing, but not strength-wise.

So you're saying a 950-960mb hurricane is not strong?

[toad strangler]

Lets see if the 12z GFS and GEFS holds firm or flips around again.

There will be more changes for sure but we are now quietly slipping well under the 200 hr mark in regards to position of this in the Caribbean

[Shell Mound]

No sir...

There some potent hurricanes there. Can’t take away if this hold it’s getting quite ominous for FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFgdc2Mk/090-CC96-B-154-E-46-A7-BA59-69-C9-ED7-E1-EEB.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/tRfyS9sQ/38-D3-AFA2-D9-BD-43-AC-8-BF0-36-D3-AB5099-A8.png

The most recent run (bottom) shows fewer members in the low 950s and more in the mid to upper 950s (mb). So there is a westward, weaker shift.

I’d be more concerned if the GEFS were showing a bunch of sub-950-mb cyclones heading into FL. Threat to FL is increasing, but not strength-wise.

So you're saying a 950-960mb hurricane is not strong?

No, but it’s much better than a Cat-4+ hitting FL, unless the system is large. I would be much more concerned if models were showing a Cat-4+.

[gatorcane]

0z Euro +216
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201016/c827fa4bd82fb3b1f94a61e1d4d55ed2.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

it still doesn't do much at all with the NW Caribbean disturbance, and instead develops a separate baroclinic low over the eastern GOMEX, which it takes rapidly NE to NNE through the SE CONUS.

Indeed the Euro doesn’t show much coming from the SW Caribbean low. You can track a weak area of vorticity which moves north then NE east of Florida.

On a side note, it shows a massive front dropping into the Gulf

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/FFgdc2Mk/090-CC96-B-154-E-46-A7-BA59-69-C9-ED7-E1-EEB.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/tRfyS9sQ/38-D3-AFA2-D9-BD-43-AC-8-BF0-36-D3-AB5099-A8.png

The most recent run (bottom) shows fewer members in the low 950s and more in the mid to upper 950s (mb). So there is a westward, weaker shift.

I’d be more concerned if the GEFS were showing a bunch of sub-950-mb cyclones heading into FL. Threat to FL is increasing, but not strength-wise.

So you're saying a 950-960mb hurricane is not strong?

No, but it’s much better than a Cat-4+ hitting FL, unless the system is large. I would be much more concerned if models were showing a Cat-4+.

strength either way we all know is the weakest area of modeling.