Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[AutoPenalti]

Would like to here wxman57’s recent thoughts on this system.

Isn't he in Disney?

Lol I think so. Either way the gfs is rolling. Will it continue shifting westward?

We most likely will continue seeing shifts here and there until about Wednesday when we start to zero in on something.

[aspen]

12z ICON has zero development but gets Epsilon to a high end Cat1 or low end Cat 2.

[LarryWx]

As of day 7, the 12Z GFS is the strongest of at least the last 4 runs.

[SFLcane]

As of day 7, the 12Z GFS is the strongest of at least the last 4 runs.

Yes and also a bit further south.

[LarryWx]

As of day 7, the 12Z GFS is the strongest of at least the last 4 runs.

Yes and also a bit further south.

I wonder if this run is going to go into Central America.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMCF plots:

[Hurricaneman]

As of day 7, the 12Z GFS is the strongest of at least the last 4 runs.

Yes and also a bit further south.

I wonder if this run is going to go into Central America.

Looks like an 1999 Irene track looking at the 500

[SFLcane]

As of day 7, the 12Z GFS is the strongest of at least the last 4 runs.

Yes and also a bit further south.

I wonder if this run is going to go into Central America.

Na I highly doupt it.

[aspen]

12z GFS has much quicker genesis. The vorticity signature midday October 21st seems good enough for a TD upgrade.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS has much quicker genesis. The vorticity signature midday October 21st seems good enough for a TD upgrade.

And for the non mathematicians out there that's within 5 days

[chris_fit]

Further E than the 06Z in the long rang at 200+ hrs - Should be safely away from FL

[SFLcane]

It’s up and out.

[aspen]

949 mbar into Cuba at 210 hours. It goes from a TS on the 22nd to a Cat 4 on the 25th.

[toad strangler]

949 mbar into Cuba at 210 hours. It goes from a TS on the 22nd to a Cat 4 on the 25th.

That seems to be the bullseye but we know what it means for a bullseye over a week out .... it won't be the bullseye.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

The GFS shifts east. Not as far as the 00Z but more east than the 06Z. Saved loop.

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

[gatorcane]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

It is more about how the other area NHC is watching in the SW Atlantic erodes the Bermuda High as can be seen here:

[blp]

12 CMC stronger and ejects this further East.

[SFLcane]

Even the CMC is wide right.