Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

Hmm, I see the ensembles are a little happier with this disturbance...maybe it actually has a shot now.

Today’s 12z GFS-Para had some weak slop entering the Gulf. Not much, but it’s something. Hard to believe we went from consistent 920s to practically nothing in just a few days.

[LarryWx]

Hmm, I see the ensembles are a little happier with this disturbance...maybe it actually has a shot now.

Today’s 12z GFS-Para had some weak slop entering the Gulf. Not much, but it’s something. Hard to believe we went from consistent 920s to practically nothing in just a few days.

But the key is and what I think is making this harder to follow is that there isn't just one disturbance. It is clearly a 2nd disturbance that the 12Z UKMET/EPS, and GEFS are harping on now and which may or may not even be showing up yet. If it is, it is now in the SW Caribbean, not NW Car.

Edit: Upon further review of models, I do think the followup being developed is now in the SW Caribbean. Whereas the 12Z NAVGEM didn't develop it, the 18Z does as a second distinct area that is now in the SW Caribbean. At hour 138, it has it almost exactly where the 12Z UKMET has it at 144.

[SFLcane]

[GeneratorPower]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/L69Z9VPw/BD018115-9055-4715-A260-F85799-BCFFC9.jpg

Oh boy here we go again. Is it another case of the boy who cried wolf?

[LarryWx]

I don't normally post the NAVGEM, but I think it (18Z) may be onto something with what's now in the SW Caribbean in light of the 12Z UKMET/EPS and 18Z GEFS:



Note that had this gone out further, it may have gotten blocked just off FL as ridging looks like it is about to build back in to its north.
Got to watch this one, folks! It may be sneaking up on us.

[LarryWx]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/L69Z9VPw/BD018115-9055-4715-A260-F85799-BCFFC9.jpg

Oh boy here we go again. Is it another case of the boy who cried wolf?

This is different as it now has the UKMET and a good number of the EPS members developing it.

Could those old GFS runs end up right after all after dropping it??

The 18Z EPS goes out to 144 and that will be just far enough to give us a hint if it is as interested in this.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, NAVGEM is at least establishing a low.

[ElectricStorm]

I see it's trying to make a comeback in the models... We are not done here folks!

[HurricaneBelle]

[jaxfladude]

Hoax or something real regardless of how strong/weak?

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/L69Z9VPw/BD018115-9055-4715-A260-F85799-BCFFC9.jpg

Oh boy here we go again. Is it another case of the boy who cried wolf?

Not another Halloween trick I hope!?

[TheStormExpert]

Who was it that said the GFS might drop it for several runs once development grows closer? I think they're right!

[SouthFLTropics]

Who was it that said the GFS might drop it for several runs once development grows closer? I think they're right!

That would be me. We've seen the GFS many times before drop something in the mid-range only to bring it back later. Normally, it would be relatively clear that this is what the GFS may have been doing. However, given the other models reluctance to come on board right away, the GFS may have lulled most of us into a false sense of security, thinking it was for real. In the end, perhaps no development is what will happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I'll be very interested in seeing what tonight's 00z runs bring.

[LarryWx]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/L69Z9VPw/BD018115-9055-4715-A260-F85799-BCFFC9.jpg

Oh boy here we go again. Is it another case of the boy who cried wolf?

This is different as it now has the UKMET and a good number of the EPS members developing it.

Could those old GFS runs end up right after all after dropping it??

The 18Z EPS goes out to 144 and that will be just far enough to give us a hint if it is as interested in this.

Well, folks, the 18Z EPS 144 also has a signal that is almost as strong as the 12Z EPS 150 signal. It also suggests that anything that might be just off FL then may get trapped shortly thereafter by a rebuilding high to its north.

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh boy here we go again. Is it another case of the boy who cried wolf?

This is different as it now has the UKMET and a good number of the EPS members developing it.

Could those old GFS runs end up right after all after dropping it??

The 18Z EPS goes out to 144 and that will be just far enough to give us a hint if it is as interested in this.

Well, folks, the 18Z EPS 144 also has a signal that is almost as strong as the 12Z EPS 150 signal. It also suggests that anything that might be just off FL then may get trapped shortly thereafter by a rebuilding high to its north.

Terrific... I feel like General Beringer in the movie War Games. Stay at Defcon 2, we may have to go through this after all.

[TheStormExpert]

Who was it that said the GFS might drop it for several runs once development grows closer? I think they're right!

That would be me. We've seen the GFS many times before drop something in the mid-range only to bring it back later. Normally, it would be relatively clear that this is what the GFS may have been doing. However, given the other models reluctance to come on board right away, the GFS may have lulled most of us into a false sense of security, thinking it was for real. In the end, perhaps no development is what will happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I'll be very interested in seeing what tonight's 00z runs bring.

Tonights GFS runs will be telling to see if you're onto something. Good job if so.

Maybe the GFS isn't so crazy after all.

[Spacecoast]

[gfsperpendicular]

Don't think it's really a follow-up disturbance so much as the merger of the current SW Carib low and the following tropical wave. Regardless, the resurrection on the models is interesting.

[Nuno]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/L69Z9VPw/BD018115-9055-4715-A260-F85799-BCFFC9.jpg

Oh boy here we go again. Is it another case of the boy who cried wolf?

Not another Halloween trick I hope!?

Joker's trick

[LarryWx]

https://i.ibb.co/DfCTM1W/Capture1017a.jpg

No 18Z TC genesis technically, but as I posted it does have a surface low at hour 138 just off S FL right where the 12Z UKMET 144 has its TD.

Edit: Mods please delete this. I accidentally did a double post and the later one has a correction that was needed.