ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[EquusStorm]

I suspect they'll go with 90-95kt for now since they're quite conservative and prefer to blend but clearly if the organization continues yeah, could easily become official a major

[aspen]

I suspect they'll go with 90-95kt for now since they're quite conservative and prefer to blend but clearly if the organization continues yeah, could easily become official a major

They might hold off until 5pm to pull the trigger on Epsilon, since this is only the first pass. They would probably want at least one more pass to confirm it’s a major.

[Iceresistance]

Dropsonde found 959 MB at the eye.

[CrazyC83]

They may only do one pass as it is a long distance to base.

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa just checked in after a couple hours and we nearly have a major!

[aspen]

Dropsonde found 959 MB at the eye.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0127A-EPSILON_dropsonde7_20201021-1658.png

They found a closed eyewall too. At this rate, Epsilon will likely continue intensification until it runs out of OHC. Maybe it’ll end up as a 105-110 kt Cat 3 before intensification halts.

[Ubuntwo]

They may only do one pass as it is a long distance to base.

They're scheduled to be on station until 4:30 eastern, so last pass might be around 3:30.

[supercane4867]

Looks like Olga 2001 on steroids. WV is amazing

[NotoSans]

NHC goes with 95kt in its update statement.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
130 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON STRONGER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Epsilon has continued to strengthen and now has maximum
sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. A Special
Advisory will be issued by 200 PM AST (1800 UTC) to reflect the
higher initial intensity and adjust the intensity forecast. This
special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 200 PM AST (1800
UTC) intermediate public advisory.


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 59.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[kevin]

They say a special advisory will be issued in ~half an hour so does that mean they still want to wait for another pass so they can perhaps scale it up to a major?

[supercane4867]

Deeper convection just started to wrap up. Expect a major very soon.

[Iceresistance]

Hurricane Epsilon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
130 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON STRONGER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Epsilon has continued to strengthen and now has maximum
sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. A Special
Advisory will be issued by 200 PM AST (1800 UTC) to reflect the
higher initial intensity and adjust the intensity forecast. This
special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 200 PM AST (1800
UTC) intermediate public advisory.


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 59.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

Oh my goodness! That thing has explosively intensified!

[Iceresistance]

Deeper convection just started to wrap up. Expect a major very soon.

https://i.imgur.com/iTtwRVt.gif

https://i.imgur.com/iqMvmqq.gif

NHC has upgraded Epsilon to 110 mph already.

[Do_For_Love]

That escalated quickly

[aspen]

Recon heading in for a N to S pass.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m rooting for you Epsilon to become the 4th major hurricane of the season!!

[kevin]

New pass has an Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure of 956.7 mbar with 95 kts FL winds so 1.2 mbar lower than the previous pass.

[Cyclenall]

I was thinking recon would find 964 mb or so but instead 959!! And here I thought that was too low of a guess . The dropsone was also in line with the HDOB instead of higher.

Where is Hurricane Epsilon the S2K user and met at? This is HIS time!!

[JRD]

So, Epsilon is going to be a major hurricane, and it was a tropical storm just barely over half a day ago. Seems like a classic case of tropical rapid intensification. And once it turns extratropical, it's forecast to also undergo bombogenesis. Interesting to see both kinds of rapid deepening in a single cyclone.