ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

In the cone again . I've honestly lost count.

[aspen]

Based on the 5pm discussion, TD28’s biggest impediment is its LLC/MLC misalignment, and faster intensification won’t happen until the two align. It could take a while or it could happen in a flash, like with Sally.

[Weatherboy1]

Still say this system ends up landfalling further East .. even NHC discussion sounds like they are skeptical, talking about difficulty of “trough ejection scenario” forecasting

[Blown Away]

Still say this system ends up landfalling further East .. even NHC discussion sounds like they are skeptical, talking about difficulty of “trough ejection scenario” forecasting

Tampa to Marco Island my prediction zone for landfall... JMHO

[Nimbus]

New burst of convection will help center the storm temporarily.
Shear doesn't look too bad except further NW so persistent convection might center the storm overnight.

[Hurricaneman]

My area for possible landfall could be anywhere from Beaumont to Naples depending on how far west this gets before the recurve NNE to NE

[Blown Away]

My area for possible landfall could be anywhere from Beaumont to Naples depending on how far west this gets before the recurve NNE to NE

Pretty good odds that will happen...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1320111830677606400

[Blown Away]

17.8N/82.8W... The LLC is there and the convection is building to the NW of the reformed LLC and on the SE of the dying LLC the NHC used as its initial position... Of course don’t listen to me and trust NHC, but I’ll bet the 00z position gets adjusted SE...

[aspen]

TD28 will have a good amount of time in the OHC-rich WCar due to the weak steering currents, anywhere between 48 and 72 hours. The high OHC means that upwelling will not be an issue. What will be, though, is the center misalignment. If the LLC and MLC snap together within 24 hours, TD28/Zeta could go bonkers like Gamma and Delta before it. If it takes a while, the NHC’s intensity estimate could be close to reality.

I’m going to estimate a maximum possible intensity of 100 kt/965 mbar, assuming we have TS Zeta at 45 kt/1000 mbar in 12-18 hours and an intensification rate of 1.5mb/hr lasting for a full day. Regardless of how strong this gets in the Caribbean, the environment in the Gulf won’t be friendly and will weaken it.

[Dean4Storms]

Will need to keep in mind that depending on how strong this gets by the time it begins to get absorbed by that strong ULL coming Eastward it's forward motion speed could move it fast enough that it doesn't lose so much wind energy before it reaches the coast.

[underthwx]

Still say this system ends up landfalling further East .. even NHC discussion sounds like they are skeptical, talking about difficulty of “trough ejection scenario” forecasting

I also feel that it may be further east...

[Loveweather12]

Still say this system ends up landfalling further East .. even NHC discussion sounds like they are skeptical, talking about difficulty of “trough ejection scenario” forecasting

I also feel that it may be further east...

How Far East you think it might go?

[ronjon]

Be watching this one carefully on the nature coast...I don't want a repeat of Hurricane Hermine. Odds are likely that this landfall will trend east with time given the time of year and an approaching trough 3-5 days down the line. Future track highly dependent on forward speed and how long in wobbles around south of Cuba.

[hurricanehunter69]

A near ideal environment for the next three days. It is perfectly understandable why the NHC has to play the conservative card. However, I would bet that intensity estimates are wayyy too low. This thing is gonna be a beast. I'm definitely all in on our fifth major of the year. Especially if it passes through the channel.

[sphelps8681]

My area for possible landfall could be anywhere from Beaumont to Naples depending on how far west this gets before the recurve NNE to NE

Pretty good odds that will happen...

Say it ain't so. I am just 8 mins north of Beaumont.

[underthwx]

Still say this system ends up landfalling further East .. even NHC discussion sounds like they are skeptical, talking about difficulty of “trough ejection scenario” forecasting

I also feel that it may be further east...

How Far East you think it might go?

Florida panhandle possibly...just my personal feeling, past couple storms had alot of track changes, have to wait and see...

[ozonepete]

True center is consolidating between the old LLC that NHC leaned towards and the MLC to the southeast of it that we watched all day. There's a clear bias towards the MLC location now so that the center is a little southeast of where they have it - notice the big convective blowup where the real center is consolidating. The very slow motion of the entire structure is probably what's causing this. Of course with such a slow official forward motion the final location within the next few hours is not that important and won't change the forecast track much at all. It's when it approaches the Yucatan Channel that the forecast gets really tough.

[SFLcane]

My area for possible landfall could be anywhere from Beaumont to Naples depending on how far west this gets before the recurve NNE to NE

Naples? As odd as this is not one model thus far implies such a scenario. Persistent High pressure will essentially block any movement towards Florida.

[SFLcane]

This should put to sleep any thoughts of a threat to Florida. Enjoy the rainy wx.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1320136141547491329