ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

CAT4 imminent

[Aric Dunn]

CAT4 imminent

https://i.imgur.com/Eyn97iK.gif

It is going to happen fast and with recon only doing two passes we will likely miss peak.

[Iceresistance]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Ummm, that is 3 weeks from now.

[aspen]

Of course MPIs decided to skyrocket ahead of Eta. Now it's possible for this to go sub-900 mbar....in NOVEMBER.

[chaser1]

Just amazing to just sit back and watch the rate of organization from T.D. up to know. Rate of pressure falls and recent eye contraction suggests it's a lock that Eta will be a major hurricane at landfall. The only solace for those in it's general path is that the wind field being so tight, that only a relative small area will be directly impacted by it's deadly core of intense wind. From best I can tell, there's minimal population density (more like protected natural lands) for that part of the coastline. Still, for those in it's direct path this will feel like a Topeka Kansas F2 tornado with a 15' storm surge thrown in for good measure. Worse yet however will be the rain induced flooding along the Rio Coco river that could possibly overwhelm the many small towns along it. If a Greek name could ever be retired, I'm afraid Eta might be the first in line for consideration.

[Blown Away]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Ummm, that is 3 weeks from now.

It was subtle Storm2k humor.

[Aric Dunn]

[TallyTracker]

Eta reminds me a ton of Hurricane Felix 2007. The track and intensity are similar. Just not sure if Eta will pull off Cat 5 at landfall the way Felix did.

[kevin]

Looks like Eta is doing what Delta never managed to do: to me it looks like a pinhole eye has formed on IR.

[Navyseal81]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

[wxman57]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Ummm, that is 3 weeks from now.

Yeah, but Louisiana is the hot spot for hurricane landfalls this year, and I have vacation plans for Thanksgiving week. The stars are all aligned for such a landfall.

[wxman57]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

Of course I am kidding about Louisiana. It appears that the jet stream will remain entrenched across the northern Gulf for weeks. I think Eta will regain hurricane strength in the NW Caribbean next Tuesday or so then meander for a while, waiting for the next trof to pick it up and carry it north and eastward. Can't rule out a threat to Florida in 10-13 days. Eta will likely be around for a while.

[AutoPenalti]

It's slowed down noticeably.

[SFLcane]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

You are correct unlikely this moves towards the gulf coast. IF a storm is indeed meandering in the NW Caribbean at that time it could very well be a serious threat to fl in my opinion.

[aspen]

The eye is warmer than anything Delta had during its pinhole ERI phase.

[SFLcane]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

Of course I am kidding about Louisiana. It appears that the jet stream will remain entrenched across the northern Gulf for weeks. I think Eta will regain hurricane strength in the NW Caribbean next Tuesday or so then meander for a while, waiting for the next trof to pick it up and carry it north and eastward. Can't rule out a threat to Florida in 10-13 days. Eta will likely be around for a while.

[tomatkins]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Ummm, that is 3 weeks from now.

Its obviously a joke - but the GFS does still have this storm around on November 18 (albeit moving out towards Bermuda) and honestly, it looks like if that run went any further, it might get left behind by the front.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on the dramatic improving presentation on IR, I'd go with 90-95 knots at 10 AM EST.

[Navyseal81]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

Of course I am kidding about Louisiana. It appears that the jet stream will remain entrenched across the northern Gulf for weeks. I think Eta will regain hurricane strength in the NW Caribbean next Tuesday or so then meander for a while, waiting for the next trof to pick it up and carry it north and eastward. Can't rule out a threat to Florida in 10-13 days. Eta will likely be around for a while.

haha I figured you were but just wanted to make sure. Although the CMC yesterday did show a Louisiana landfall. I guess I just worry that HP could build and guide it to the Northern Gulf Coast like last week.

Watched the news last night in Pensacola and meteorologist said something similar to you, that this could meander a while but said he's not sure there's enough to pull it north of Cuba anytime in the next week. He said the hope is it sits down there and just waits for a trough to kick it NE and out to sea, not affecting anyone. Watching the GFS and Euro long-term, it seems like that is the question. Is there enough to pull this north into the Gulf or Florida straits?

[supercane4867]

Landfall still a long way to go with the system slowing down as expected. Plenty of time for this to get to MPI