ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Based on the dramatic improving presentation on IR, I'd go with 90-95 knots at 10 AM EST.

Don’t forget that the last pass found SFMR of 90 kt, so Eta is probably around 90-95 kt right now. They’ll probably have a much higher landfall intensity (110-120 kt).

[tomatkins]

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

Of course I am kidding about Louisiana. It appears that the jet stream will remain entrenched across the northern Gulf for weeks. I think Eta will regain hurricane strength in the NW Caribbean next Tuesday or so then meander for a while, waiting for the next trof to pick it up and carry it north and eastward. Can't rule out a threat to Florida in 10-13 days. Eta will likely be around for a while.

haha I figured you were but just wanted to make sure. Although the CMC yesterday did show a Louisiana landfall. I guess I just worry that HP could build and guide it to the Northern Gulf Coast like last week.

Watched the news last night in Pensacola and meteorologist said something similar to you, that this could meander a while but said he's not sure there's enough to pull it north of Cuba anytime in the next week. He said the hope is it sits down there and just waits for a trough to kick it NE and out to sea, not affecting anyone. Watching the GFS and Euro long-term, it seems like that is the question. Is there enough to pull this north into the Gulf or Florida straits?

Not affecting anyone in the US. Its basically impossible to get out to sea without hitting something from the Western Caribbean.

[kevin]

In terms of the Atlantic season (so of course not including storms like Goni) this has to be THE IR picture of the year. The eye is getting clearer by the minute.

[Iceresistance]

The eye is warmer than anything Delta had during its pinhole ERI phase.
https://i.imgur.com/iAzFwkL.png

Uh oh

[lando]

Not sure if you're kidding on Louisiana, but wouldn't a trough push it NE and ENE and out to sea from the Caribbean?

Of course I am kidding about Louisiana. It appears that the jet stream will remain entrenched across the northern Gulf for weeks. I think Eta will regain hurricane strength in the NW Caribbean next Tuesday or so then meander for a while, waiting for the next trof to pick it up and carry it north and eastward. Can't rule out a threat to Florida in 10-13 days. Eta will likely be around for a while.

haha I figured you were but just wanted to make sure. Although the CMC yesterday did show a Louisiana landfall. I guess I just worry that HP could build and guide it to the Northern Gulf Coast like last week.

Watched the news last night in Pensacola and meteorologist said something similar to you, that this could meander a while but said he's not sure there's enough to pull it north of Cuba anytime in the next week. He said the hope is it sits down there and just waits for a trough to kick it NE and out to sea, not affecting anyone. Watching the GFS and Euro long-term, it seems like that is the question. Is there enough to pull this north into the Gulf or Florida straits?

The models right now are forecasting the high pressure to build back in over Florida resulting in almost 180 degree motion change, from NE to W or NW, before getting picked up by a Troph and heading back e or NE, towards central Florida or the big bend perhaps

[Iceresistance]

When is the next Recon? They need one very soon!

[supercane4867]

[Nuno]

Eta looks to be moving just south of due west now as it slows down.

[kevin]

Eta's current IR reminds me of those monster WPac systems. One hours ago recon data supported a decent cat 2, but I'd be very surprised if it isn't a cat 3 yet atm.

[Aric Dunn]

possible early turn the wsw/sw maybe?

the last 30 min is either a big wobble or something more.

[Nuno]

possible early turn the wsw/sw maybe?

the last 30 min is either a big wobble or something more.

That what it looks like. Could be the start of a more pronounced WSW motion approaching the coast.

[Chemmers]

Think it will peak at sub 920 and 150 knots

[AutoPenalti]

possible early turn the wsw/sw maybe?

the last 30 min is either a big wobble or something more.

Most likely a Trochoidal wobble.

[Iceresistance]

It seems like that when the storm is stronger, it gets slower. (Dorian in 2019 did the exact same thing.)

[ElectricStorm]

Think it will peak at sub 920 and 150 knots

That's bold. Unfortunately it could very well be a possibility if it gets that eye cleared. I'm going to more conservative and say it peaks at 130kts/935mb

[Iceresistance]

How fast is Eta now moving?

NHC said West at 10 mph.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well on its way to 100 knots.

[Iceresistance]

Think it will peak at sub 920 and 150 knots

That's bold. Unfortunately it could very well be a possibility if it gets that eye cleared. I'm going to more conservative and say it peaks at 130kts/935mb

I'd say 150 mph & 940s

[kevin]

How fast is Eta now moving?

NHC said West at 10 mph.

Latest ADT data suggests 7.9 kts so 9.1 mph with a very slight SW component (259.2 degrees).

[Iceresistance]

Well on its way to 100 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/0kOYK4D.jpg

How warm is the eye? Windy.com said -68C