ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Highteeld
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1521 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

Warmer eye. Hurricane Allen might be going down.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1522 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

Now the deepest hurricane of the year, stronger than Laura.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1523 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

Highteeld wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I see, but that did not make sense at first.

Actually, not even the WPAC produces this kind of CDO very often. Eta resembles a SPAC system more than any other basin. SPAC cyclones are known to produce insanely cold cloudtops.

This. WPAC storms will have more pronounced banding features while SPAC tends to have smaller CDO's but larger area of visible ventilation/spin. Eta is more like SPAC

Reminds me a bit of Winston, though Winston's eye was bigger
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1524 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 2
Location: 14.4°N 82.4°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Stronger than Paloma 2008!

:shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1525 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

The way it's looking right now... I think we may see a special advisory coming after the recon pass. :double:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1526 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:finally clearling out.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vqm5zvp/Capture.png[url]

Thought I was on LSD for a moment.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1527 Postby TorSkk » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:57 pm

SAB

TXNT22 KNES 022351
TCSNTL

A. 29L (ETA)

B. 02/2331Z

C. 14.3N

D. 82.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24H. FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1528 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:58 pm

TorSkk wrote:SAB

TXNT22 KNES 022351
TCSNTL

A. 29L (ETA)

B. 02/2331Z

C. 14.3N

D. 82.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24H. FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE


LOL. But yeah it just comes down to the frame they use.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1529 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:58 pm

Raw T of 7.4... i'd estimate the eye has warmed 20 degrees since the 2320z measurement. I think a RAW T of 7.7 is next with a correct ADT center location.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1530 Postby jackdets » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:59 pm

With the eye temps rising like that Delta T could get to C5 levels before recon even gets there. Safe to say this is one of the most anticipated recon passes in a long while
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ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1531 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:59 pm

I should have stuck with my original 933 estimate...

This is a record for November Rapid Intensification...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1532 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:00 pm

rapidly warming eye now..

nearly positive with a tiny eye..

if it was not a cat 5 before it is now lol

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1533 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:00 pm

jackdets wrote:With the eye temps rising like that Delta T could get to C5 levels before recon even gets there. Safe to say this is one of the most anticipated recon passes in a long while

If not, ever.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1534 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:00 pm

Almost there...almost.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1535 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:01 pm

This is just unreal. And you're telling me this season produced this monster in November??!?

Image
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1536 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:01 pm

Obvious category 5 is obvious
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1537 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:01 pm

Not that anyone is surprised but operationally this dethrones Paloma 2008 as the 3rd most intense November cane. Lenny is for sure next. 1932’s spot is not impossible for Eta...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1538 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:01 pm

Recon is now at the point of no return.

Eye temp. now around -8C

Eyewall now around -100C
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1539 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:02 pm

Weather Dude wrote:The way it's looking right now... I think we may see a special advisory coming after the recon pass. :double:


It would be too close to the 10 pm advisory, but that would be reflected in it.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1540 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:02 pm

Remember August when we were talking quantity over quality? Those were good times.
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