ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1781 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1323431727612788737

We're actually seeing a bonefide T8.0 in the Atlantic...in November.

Gilbert peaked T8.0 on TAFB analysis and T7.9 on ADT. Eta may not get to T8.0 from either TAFB or SAB but may very well exceed that on ADT.


I think we've learned that the original DT underestimated how rapid some storms can intensify. The original technique says this can't even be above a 6.0 because of where it was 24 hours ago.
3 likes   

User avatar
sgastorm
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 66
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:30 pm
Location: Valdosta, GA

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane in NW Caribbean

#1782 Postby sgastorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks to be going more south than expected


https://i.imgur.com/6ylWAH5.gif



Probably doing a cyclonic loop is my take on it.
Last edited by sgastorm on Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16013
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1783 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 pm

Between now and 3 hours, say an ERC begins and CI does not hit 8.3. Can the Raw numbers still officially count?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1784 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:29 pm

An absolute fever dream. The rate of intensification is just hard to even grasp. Suffice to say the category five streak continues but going to be apocalyptic in Central America.
7 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4769
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1785 Postby psyclone » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:29 pm

What an extraordinary event to watch unfold. Just stunning. The latter portion of this season has certainly erased any deficit of quality systems. Another small extreme storm. a high end tropical tornado.
7 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1786 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:30 pm

-90C cloudtopfest

Image

Image

Image
15 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1787 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:30 pm

Outside of being impacted by a storm directly, the anticipation of this recon mission is what I live for.
2 likes   

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1788 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:30 pm

Thiccccc like an overfed grizzly bear

Image
Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
16 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9290
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1789 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:31 pm

aspen wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:Anyone see any signs of an oncoming ERC?

I just see a positive temp pinhole eye within a <-85C CDO and frequent eyewall lightning. No sign of an EWRC yet — just absolute insanity.

Eta may be the perfect storm. . .
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9290
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1790 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:31 pm

1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3731
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1791 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:32 pm

Image
11 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1792 Postby toad strangler » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:32 pm

psyclone wrote:What an extraordinary event to watch unfold. Just stunning. The latter portion of this season has certainly erased any deficit of quality systems. Another small extreme storm. a high end tropical tornado.


ACE hand wringers FOR THE LOSS :lol:
6 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9290
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1793 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:32 pm

Will Recon find 200 mph winds???
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8819
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1794 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:32 pm

Recon is starting to descend...great ready for one of the craziest recon passes in history.
6 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1795 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Between now and 3 hours, say an ERC begins and CI does not hit 8.3. Can the Raw numbers still officially count?

Even an ERC does come to fruition, the CDO won't begin to really warm up until the inner eyewall start to contract and dissipate. Gilbert had a concentric eyewall at peak intensity and the ERC had already started at landfall on Yucatan but it was still 900mb/145kt at that point(second strongest landfall in the Atlantic behind Labor day storm)
1 likes   

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1796 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm

If we all blow really hard at once maybe recon will be slightly faster via butterfly effect. It's all I have right now
4 likes   

shiny-pebble
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1797 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm

Buckle up
Last edited by shiny-pebble on Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
-Jack 8-)

ClarCari
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1798 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm

The southern outflow band is now starting to mirror the north. I can’t help but think of Patricia’s record breaking peak intensity Satellite shot and how perfectly symmetric it was...
1 likes   

User avatar
Owasso
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1799 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm

Image
Here we go.
6 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1800 Postby skyline385 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:34 pm

They going for the strongest side
3 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests