ATL: ETA - Models

[Iceresistance]

12z Track Guidance. TVCN shoots it through the Yucatán Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/BtAwBcz.png

The closest 7 AM CST Closest NHC track to the models is the OFCI & OFCL

[SFLcane]

12z Gfs brings this into the upper keys putting SFL into dirty side of what ever develops.

[Cat5James]

12z Gfs brings this into the upper keys putting SFL into dirty side of what ever develops.

Very heavy rainfall for SE FL Monday afternoon

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/qmvzSIV.gif

What is that? 1-2mb stronger?

[gatorcane]

Heaviest rainfall offshore and over the Bahamas:

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/qmvzSIV.gif

What is that? 1-2mb stronger?

Just looking at track Not intensity by any means. Yes around 995-997mb

[Nuno]

Heaviest rainfall offshore and over the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/6pzmtgpy/gfs-apcpn-seus-20.png

That would be pretty ugly for Homestead though.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Trend north also on the gem...

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF:...

FSU (re-)genesis probability calculations are interesting this a.m.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/WdPuDEC.gif

The NAVGEM brings a Cat.2 into Palm Beach.

[wxman57]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.



HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

[CyclonicFury]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etatrack.png

HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etaintensity.png

How is the HWRF a big loser for intensity, when it consistently showed Eta becoming a Category 4 hurricane before it formed while the Euro showed only a TS/weak C1?

[Jr0d]

https://i.imgur.com/WdPuDEC.gif

The NAVGEM brings a Cat.2 into Palm Beach.

So Palm Beach wont get a direct hit from Eta....j/k sort of....

Tomorrow is ine of the few days I get to sleep in. When I wake up I will either start getting ready, secure loose items, fire up and fuel up the generator and get a few supplies that we dont already have OR not if the evolution of the system keeps it away from the Keys or shows a weak TS that wont be much of a threat.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/WdPuDEC.gif

The NAVGEM brings a Cat.2 into Palm Beach.

So Palm Beach wont get a direct hit from Eta....j/k sort of....

Tomorrow is ine of the few days I get to sleep in. When I wake up I will either start getting ready, secure loose items, fire up and fuel up the generator and get a few supplies that we dont already have OR not if the evolution of the system keeps it away from the Keys or shows a weak TS that wont be much of a threat.

Usually when the NAVGEM shows it, it usually never happens.

Where about are you in South Florida?

[AutoPenalti]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etatrack.png

HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etaintensity.png

Am I reading this wrong? HWRF seems to be quite the opposite of big loser. It's not the lowest but it's not the highest either..

[MJGarrison]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etatrack.png

HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etaintensity.png

Am I reading this wrong? HWRF seems to be quite the opposite of big loser. It's not the lowest but it's not the highest either..

Wxman specifically was calling out Day 4


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[AutoPenalti]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etatrack.png

HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etaintensity.png

Am I reading this wrong? HWRF seems to be quite the opposite of big loser. It's not the lowest but it's not the highest either..

Wxman specifically was calling out Day 4


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Oh, the way he wrote it out I thought he was saying all 4 days.

[SFLcane]