ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3321 Postby Jr0d » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:38 pm

The Keys are still part of Florida and we are certainly not in the clear here.

Eta is not looking healthy right now, looks almost more like a trough axis than a strong tropical storm. Much different than earlier today. We will see what land interaction will do. I do not think we can rule out Eta strengthening after Cuba, however looking less likely given the satellite presentation.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3322 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:03 pm

The GFS has been suggesting that at least a moderate TS reaching the loop current in the Gulf could end up being pretty bad, because it’ll stall over deep warm waters and could become a hurricane. It depends on what’s left after Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3323 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:06 pm

aspen wrote:The GFS has been suggesting that at least a moderate TS reaching the loop current in the Gulf could end up being pretty bad, because it’ll stall over deep warm waters and could become a hurricane. It depends on what’s left after Cuba.


Where does it go after the loop current?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3324 Postby lhpfish » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:07 pm

Due east?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3325 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:14 pm

lhpfish wrote:Due east?


Convection ball almost completely E of 80W, IMO either it’s SW shear and convection on R side of CoC or it’s moving @E.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3326 Postby Cat5James » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:16 pm

I strongly dislike when people use the term "Florida shield", but if events play out how the GFS is depicting them I will start to question everything I know.. It appears every time Eta tries to approach FL a high builds in from our east and shoves it away... its uncanny
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3327 Postby lhpfish » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:17 pm

She only has one way out after that. Shield can’t last forever
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3328 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:20 pm

lhpfish wrote:She only has one way out after that. Shield can’t last forever


Dissipates in GOM. :D
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3329 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:28 pm

Blown Away wrote:
lhpfish wrote:She only has one way out after that. Shield can’t last forever


Dissipates in GOM. :D


He has yet to understand the powers of the dark side which we have mastered in Florida. :slime:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3330 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:53 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
lhpfish wrote:She only has one way out after that. Shield can’t last forever


Dissipates in GOM. :D


He has yet to understand the powers of the dark side which we have mastered in Florida. :slime:

I will keep repeating, there is no Florida Shield. The NHC doesn't have a definition for one and if a storm is going to come, no one cant stop it from coming except Mother Nature.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3331 Postby Cat5James » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:05 am

Convection really blowing up right now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3332 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:23 am

65 mph, I knew this will keep getting stronger! Hurricane watches for ALL of south Florida.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3333 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:25 am

johngaltfla wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
lhpfish wrote:She only has one way out after that. Shield can’t last forever


Dissipates in GOM. :D


He has yet to understand the powers of the dark side which we have mastered in Florida. :slime:


Me reacting to your latest reply: :roflmao:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3334 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:32 am

Still impressed with that 10-15 inch rainfall prediction for Miami-Dade

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/035359.shtml?rainqpf#contents
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3335 Postby boca » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:39 am

Blown Away wrote:
lhpfish wrote:Due east?


Convection ball almost completely E of 80W, IMO either it’s SW shear and convection on R side of CoC or it’s moving @E.


I don’t see this moving NW or west it would be a naked swirl because the convection is going ENE.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3336 Postby Bluehawk » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:40 am

First of all, thank you :notworthy: all, dedicated people (professionals and amateurs alike) who continue to provide anyone coming here a trove of information. It is so good to avoid the media hype by simply following the information, and being guided in understanding the implications and limitations in interpreting possible outcomes. That being said: pretty powerful squalls :raincloud: right now in the West Boca Raton area, rain and wind. Many people were very confident today we'd be able to to stuff tomorrow (e.g. go to church), because the TS winds are not supposed to be here until tomrrow night, but I seriously doubted tomorrow would be a "waiting day", thanks to reading the posts here. If it's anything like tonight... I doubt many will want to drive in this weather.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3337 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:51 am

Closely monitoring from the Tampa Bay region. We either get a sloppy mess or a strong Cat 2 from the models. We should have a clear understanding of what weather factors will win out by Monday and give us an idea what happens to this area come middle to late in the week...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3338 Postby crimi481 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:08 am

I am in Venice Mike. Hard to know what our area will get. Time will tell
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3339 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:40 am

So this is just going to sit in the gulf for half of the week and fizzle out? I’m not sure if I’m buying that solution at this point
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3340 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:46 am

ACE as of Midnight is at 153.80 units, highest since 2017

Yes, 2020 is classified as 'hyperactive'
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