Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:TorSkk wrote:I think that Eta demonstrates quite convincingly why Dvorak constraints are out there
Imagine if Eta was in the WPac and the JTWC went with 130 kt like the NHC. We would be going berserk that they didn’t upgrade it to 160-180 kt, not knowing that even 145 kt is an aggressive estimate.
That makes me doubt the intensity of some November/December storms like Kammuri. I don't even think Kammuri was a Cat 4 honestly
I think duration needs to be taken into account. Eta hit raws of T#8.5, but it’s massive CDG CDO only lasted for 12 hours maximum. By comparison, last year’s Halong, which also occurred in early November, had extremely deep convection from day 1 and throughout its RI phase, and it hit T#7.5 and higher on ADT for most of the day on November 5th. It wasn’t a sudden T#7.5-8.0 like Eta, so it had enough time to get close to the official 165 kt/888 mbar estimate.
If I recall correctly, Kammuri didn’t have much ground-based evidence to support a Cat 4 intensity, and pressure readings near the center only down down to the 960s.