ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sure seems like the track is gonna take ETA further South down into Ft. Myers instead of Tampa. Thoughts?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Umm, that LLC is still there
you can see it rapidly weakening..
very light winds now. pressure is nearly the same farther east.
And very enlongated right now, it's reforming.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I wonder if a further east reformation may bring SEFL back in the wind field.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
caneman wrote:Sure seems like the track is gonna take ETA further South down into Ft. Myers instead of Tampa. Thoughts?
I think you could be onto something. A system approaching the coast at an oblique angle doesn't need to lose much longitude to have a vastly differing landfall point. The irony here is such a development would likely force TS warnings at the next advisory south of the existing watches issued with the last complete advisory. the 10 pm update should be interesting...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Watchin more closely now, might get some TS sustained winds by thursday here.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Watching the i.r. loop it almost seems like there is an eye. Its also more clearly shows the NNE movement. Maybe Tampa to Sarasota but lopsided so I'm sure all the way down to Ft. Myers would get a good whack too
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think it is the best it has looked in several days!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
[quote="AutoPenalti"]I wonder if a further east reformation may bring SEFL back in the wind field.[/quote
I’m thinking the same thing because this is moving ENE.It doesn’t look like Eta wants to deviate from that heading.
I’m thinking the same thing because this is moving ENE.It doesn’t look like Eta wants to deviate from that heading.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
caneman wrote:Watching the i.r. loop it almost seems like there is an eye. Its also more clearly shows the NNE movement. Maybe Tampa to Sarasota but lopsided so I'm sure all the way down to Ft. Myers would get a good whack too
Again you're on point. near and right of the center gets the buffet. nothing to the west is the most likely outcome
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon needs to be very careful, the lightning there is nonstop on radar
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cjrciadt wrote:Watchin more closely now, might get some TS sustained winds by thursday here.
i teach in a portable between you and lakeland...wondering if we will have school Thursday and Friday
(with us doing half of our students learning via zoom/online, maybe they just convert everyone to virtual for a few days)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
If Eta doesn’t stop the ENE movement, I see TS warning for the lower Keys coming soon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Recon needs to be very careful, the lightning there is nonstop on radar
Lightning shouldn’t be much of a risk. But could indicate strong turbulence.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This position comes from the model file in the "aid_public" directory of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System. CARQ stands for "Combined Automated Response to Query".
CARQ Storm Position
Date: Nov. 11, 2020 0:00 Z (Wednesday)
Coordinates: 23.5N 84.6W
Wind Speed: 55 kts (63.3 mph, 101.9 km/h, 28.3 m/s)
MSLP: 990 mb (29.24 inHg, 990 hPa)
Storm Direction: NNE (25°)
Storm Speed: 8 kts (9.2 mph, 14.8 km/h)
System Depth: Deep
Last closed isobar press.: 1009 mb (29.8 inHg, 1009 hPa)
Last closed isobar radius: 300 nm (345.2 miles, 555.6 km)
Radius of Max Winds: 20 nm (23 miles, 37 km)
CARQ Storm Position
Date: Nov. 11, 2020 0:00 Z (Wednesday)
Coordinates: 23.5N 84.6W
Wind Speed: 55 kts (63.3 mph, 101.9 km/h, 28.3 m/s)
MSLP: 990 mb (29.24 inHg, 990 hPa)
Storm Direction: NNE (25°)
Storm Speed: 8 kts (9.2 mph, 14.8 km/h)
System Depth: Deep
Last closed isobar press.: 1009 mb (29.8 inHg, 1009 hPa)
Last closed isobar radius: 300 nm (345.2 miles, 555.6 km)
Radius of Max Winds: 20 nm (23 miles, 37 km)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GeneratorPower wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Recon needs to be very careful, the lightning there is nonstop on radar
Lightning shouldn’t be much of a risk. But could indicate strong turbulence.
It acutally does, In Sept. 2020, a recon plane had to abort while on the way to TD 22 because it was struck by lightning and it caused the radar system to fail.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Takes me back to Charley. Forecast to go near Tampa - the sniffed out Charlotte Harbor -and made a right. I am in Englewood
But Charley was 140-145 mph. May be close call here. 2020 - the planet spins in reverse
But Charley was 140-145 mph. May be close call here. 2020 - the planet spins in reverse
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not sure what to make of this storm.... round two south Florida?
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
-90C cloud tops has been detected
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter 2020-2021

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The old LLC is dying and a new one will form under the deep convection, very obvious at this point.
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