Texas Winter 2020-2021

[losf1981]

Local meteorologist friend thinks this pushes much further north. Fingers Crossed!

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looks pretty steady at 500mb. It keeps DFW in the mid 30s while all this is happening which almost perfect. In fact the precip shield expands even further north and heavier compared to 12z.

1-2" qpf liquid which if is slightly colder would be a huge hit.

[gpsnowman]

18z GFS looks pretty steady at 500mb. It keeps DFW in the mid 30s while all this is happening which almost perfect. In fact the precip shield expands even further north and heavier compared to 12z.

1-2" qpf liquid which if is slightly colder would be a huge hit.

Man that is a lot of qpf. So if it is mid 30's with heavy precip, below freezing air will be dragged down to the surface, correct? I'm wondering how much starts as rain and ends as snow.

[Brent]

18z GFS looks pretty steady at 500mb. It keeps DFW in the mid 30s while all this is happening which almost perfect. In fact the precip shield expands even further north and heavier compared to 12z.

1-2" qpf liquid which if is slightly colder would be a huge hit.

how much QPF did February 2010 have

I mean assuming we don't lose some to rain

But then again February 2010 was supposed to be mostly rain too

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS looks pretty steady at 500mb. It keeps DFW in the mid 30s while all this is happening which almost perfect. In fact the precip shield expands even further north and heavier compared to 12z.

1-2" qpf liquid which if is slightly colder would be a huge hit.

Yep, a 24hr hit like this combined with the tendency of the GFS to be warm biased at the surface during these events

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looks pretty steady at 500mb. It keeps DFW in the mid 30s while all this is happening which almost perfect. In fact the precip shield expands even further north and heavier compared to 12z.

1-2" qpf liquid which if is slightly colder would be a huge hit.

how much QPF did February 2010 have

I mean assuming we don't lose some to rain

Aloft is plenty cold. If surface trends a little colder then it's all snow, which I assume would be so since we start out cold.

It was 1.66" of liquid on the bulk of the snow day on the 12th and another 0.34 the day before (night before) so around 2". The forecast had rain changing to snow but it was just cold enough the first band came through as snow and dumped 2-4" alone the rest history.

[bubba hotep]

Can't wait until the SREF gets into range, we will probably see some members with historic like totals for many areas.

[Cpv17]

That doesn’t look good for southeast Texas. Good thing I didn’t get my hopes up lol

[Haris]

I’m on the edge in Austin. Very nervous. Rain snow line may be over us

[Cpv17]

I’m on the edge in Austin. Very nervous. Rain snow line may be over us

Bad trends for us today. The Euro still looks good though!

[EnnisTx]

Wow. Been away a bit feeling like crap and come back to new pages and excitement all around.

This looks like the real deal for us! Come on 2010 we deserve it.....

[Ntxw]

Wow. Been away a bit feeling like crap and come back to new pages and excitement all around.

This looks like the real deal for us! Come on 2010 we deserve it.....

Nothing is promised in the model world! However once you get below 100hr models these days they tend to lock in, it usually sticks hard except minor details and small shifts.

It's almost Thursday and event is coming by Monday. Last system the big shifts happened in the 120-144 hr range.

[Brent]

Wow. Been away a bit feeling like crap and come back to new pages and excitement all around.

This looks like the real deal for us! Come on 2010 we deserve it.....

Nothing is promised in the model world! However once you get below 100hr models these days they tend to lock in, it usually sticks hard except minor details and small shifts.

It's almost Thursday and event is coming by Monday. Last system the big shifts happened in the 120-144 hr range.

yeah I'm thinking by tomorrow if things still look good the hype will build

Still kind of wait and see but I like the fact that it's been heavier south like I said earlier

[Texas Snow]

This is where it starts to get fun not only watching snow chances, but also watching the online user and guest counts grow.

14 winter regulars and 63 guests now.

[EnnisTx]

Wow. Been away a bit feeling like crap and come back to new pages and excitement all around.

This looks like the real deal for us! Come on 2010 we deserve it.....

Nothing is promised in the model world! However once you get below 100hr models these days they tend to lock in, it usually sticks hard except minor details and small shifts.

It's almost Thursday and event is coming by Monday. Last system the big shifts happened in the 120-144 hr range.

That's very true, I'm just being overly optimistic, maybe its the Covid vaccine and feeling like dung.

But I believe we get something this round. Fingers crossed!

[Cerlin]

Man, I’ve been super busy today so my activity has been limited but i love seeing how active the forum is again! 7 was a little worried this wouldn’t happen this year just from how long it took us to even get to 10 pages! But I’m excited to finally feel some genuine hype again!

[SnowintheFalls]

We have had some winter weather so far in the Falls. I'll be pulling for you DFW folks to get some wintry weather finally!

[WacoWx]

TWC said Dallas may be the big winner out of the entire Deep South. The hypes been fun, but that comment should seal our fate at receiving absolutely nothing. (Reverse jinx!)

[Captmorg70]

6in in Denton County on 18z GFS.

Can I lock that one in??

I have a feeling that this storm could pile up a lot of posts in the next few days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That doesn’t look good for southeast Texas. Good thing I didn’t get my hopes up lol

Anyone south of I10 should never get their hopes up. Me, on the other hand, in West-Central Montgomery County, has a much higher probability each Winter than someone in SW Houston, and that isn't saying much.

Looks like I could see a heavy rain/snow mix at the end, but I'm almost on the southern edge of accumulating snow, so that could easily go away.