Florida Weather

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Shell Mound
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Re: Florida Weather

#16501 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:20 pm

NDG wrote:As always, the freeze warnings for Orlando didn't materialize, only the farther northern areas in northern Lake County and inland areas Volusia county was where temps briefly reached 32 degrees, the Euro and MOS guidance did a good job.

https://i.imgur.com/Q7racpd.gif

Interestingly, there was little variation among lows recorded at various METAR sites, both inland and coastal, sited to the south of the I-4 corridor. The difference between Miami and Orlando International Airports was just 7°F, for instance. 45°F at MIA is very impressive for the 2020s vs. earlier decades, given that winds across the peninsula were essentially light or even calm, however “offshore” vectors were oriented. Prior to urbanisation (urban heat islands or UHI), this would have been a historic radiational freeze, typical for La Niña, whereas El Niño tends to produce advective freezes. Had the UHI been absent, the lows at MCO, MIA, and other urban locales would have likely been ten or more degrees lower than observed, placing this radiational event among the truly historic on record in Florida. Adjusting for UHI yields upper 20s °F at PBI and mid-30s °F well into southern Miami-Dade County. Lows in the Keys would likely still be similar, given the relative sparsity of condominiums, modulation vis-à-vis the Loop Current and limited areal coverage of land vs. water, etc.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16502 Postby psyclone » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:57 pm

Finally those CPC outlooks are painted in a lovely shade of orange.. with the deeper shading off to the north....which is moating us off from deep winter cold as we dive into January.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16503 Postby boca » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:22 pm

psyclone wrote:Finally those CPC outlooks are painted in a lovely shade of orange.. with the deeper shading off to the north....which is moating us off from deep winter cold as we dive into January.


Do you have the link, the link I have no longer works.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16504 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:19 am

psyclone wrote:Finally those CPC outlooks are painted in a lovely shade of orange.. with the deeper shading off to the north....which is moating us off from deep winter cold as we dive into January.


The NAO forecast actually looks quite strongly negative, but from what I have been able to gather from Twitter weather enthusiasts, it is going to be a west-based NAO- which seems to leave us under warm anomalies for some reason. Someone is going to get slammed with crazy cold air, it just may not be us.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16505 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:10 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:Been a Floridian since 1976 (my family moved down shortly after we experienced Hurricane Belle on Long Island, hence the user name), so aside from remembering the time it actually snowed here in Florida in January 1977 (which I didn't fully appreciate at the time), I recall some big-time Xmas freezes. 1983 saw us in the Tampa Bay Area down into the 20s, and it was followed a week later by another freeze on New Year's 1984. Then in 1989 we had another serious cold outbreak, with the high on Christmas Eve being something like 38 - with sun. And on the 23rd we had sleet which stuck to the cars (North Florida esp. the Jacksonville area had a White Christmas). Finally I recall Christmas Eve 1993 being a cold, raw day with rain and temps in the 40s.

But yeah it's been ages since Christmas was truly cold around here, so it'll be a nice change.


ahhhh, thanks for the memories :D It's been some years ago for sure but you're right..... "Florida surely has had some historical cold events over the years. Just goes to show how remarkable those were and how infrequent they occur.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16506 Postby chaser1 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:11 am

boca wrote:The storm expert is MIA too because he would chime in too as well during the non hurricane season I did like him he was a good poster.


You're right?! I had forgotten about him as well. Seemingly a number of regular posters from Fla seem to be MIA. Burn out??
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Re: Florida Weather

#16507 Postby NDG » Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:18 pm

Yes, the west based NAO will keep the colder pattern in the western US.
FL looks to go into at least an average temp pattern and drier conditions.

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Re: Florida Weather

#16508 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:39 pm

Nothing really noteworthy in the Miami long range forecast....looks like we've got upper 50s for a night on Monday, then potentially some 50s around Jan 14-16. I would have expected a lot more with a prolonged negative NAO and AO's, but I guess the exact position of that blocking high combined with what's going on in the Pacific has much to do with that.

Quite the intense extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific....920 mb? :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16509 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:04 am

Happy New Years fellow Floridians :D It's looking like our continued chilly weather for the State will continue in spite of La Nina, over the next week or two. EURO and GFS are both projecting several frontal passages and I'm seeing no torch in sight
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Re: Florida Weather

#16510 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:29 pm

Yup still looks cool for the next 2 weeks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ns/814day/
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Re: Florida Weather

#16511 Postby NDG » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:21 am

Cool wx but the heart of the coldest temps will stay to our west and north over the next couple of weeks, but at least will give our A/C systems a break compared to the last few winters, for a nice change.

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Re: Florida Weather

#16512 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:53 pm

The GFS is signaling the possibility of some arctic air intrusion into the lower 48 and deep into the south later in January. For now it is in the long-range but worth noting.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16513 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:06 pm

https://mashable.com/article/polar-vortex-explained/
Don't know if this will effect Florida end of Jan. or not but interesting read
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Re: Florida Weather

#16514 Postby boca » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:28 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:https://mashable.com/article/polar-vortex-explained/
Don't know if this will effect Florida end of Jan. or not but interesting read


I’m hoping it does affect us in some way because honestly we rarely get rain during the winter months and frankly it’s boring.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16515 Postby Nuno » Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:59 am

boca wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:https://mashable.com/article/polar-vortex-explained/
Don't know if this will effect Florida end of Jan. or not but interesting read


I’m hoping it does affect us in some way because honestly we rarely get rain during the winter months and frankly it’s boring.


The real downer of winter. I can deal with the never-ending lack of rain as long as its cool outside like this winter has been but otherwise its just boring for us.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16516 Postby psyclone » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:07 pm

Another chilly weekend on tap. this winter has been delivering the goods for the cold weather fans. Peak of the freeze season is here so watching any arctic airmass invasions in the east is definitely worth keeping tabs on.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16517 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:22 pm

12Z Euro looks to have gone colder with next weekend’s front. Has 36F in Orlando and 37F in Tampa Sat night Jan 16th. The GFS is about 5 degrees warmer around 42F. :cold:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16518 Postby MetroMike » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:18 pm

The 3-4 week outlook from the CPC has warmer than average temps for most of Florida?
I doubt this will come to reality unless we see a great pattern change, but won't keep my hopes up for this mean season we have.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16519 Postby boca » Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:55 pm

MetroMike wrote:The 3-4 week outlook from the CPC has warmer than average temps for most of Florida?
I doubt this will come to reality unless we see a great pattern change, but won't keep my hopes up for this mean season we have.


I like to read the NWS discussions since my home area is in the Miami weather service I also read Melbourne, Tampa and Key West just to get the different takes on our weather. The interesting thing was out of Key West and they said that in 7 to 10 days the long wave pattern will change and stronger cold fronts would affect the area and the east coast as well.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16520 Postby boca » Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:59 pm

boca wrote:
MetroMike wrote:The 3-4 week outlook from the CPC has warmer than average temps for most of Florida?
I doubt this will come to reality unless we see a great pattern change, but won't keep my hopes up for this mean season we have.


I like to read the NWS discussions since my home area is in the Miami weather service I also read Melbourne, Tampa and Key West just to get the different takes on our weather. The interesting thing was out of Key West and they said that in 7 to 10 days the long wave pattern will change and stronger cold fronts would affect the area and the east coast as well.


Tuesday night, flushing out the
attempts at low level moisture modification on Wednesday. Once
again, the gradient will be limited on the backside of the low`s
departure into the western North Atlantic. A significant pattern
change will take place across the CONUS on days 6 and 7 as the
nearly weeks-worth of transient Pacific energy is replaced by a
long wave trough across the Eastern United States. This may result
in a few strong cold frontal passages through the Florida Keys
between days 7 through 10 and beyond.

Snippet out of Key West
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