Texas Winter 2020-2021

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Models do seem to be backing off on the extreme cold next weekend. Still a lot of differences in the models. Won't be more confident until maybe next Tue-Wed. By the way, I have a beef with that groundhog. It was clearly overcast and snowing when he came out of his hole on Tuesday. How did he see his shadow? The whole thing is rigged!

If the cold air does get in place by next Fri/Sat, then the pattern in the Euro would be a quite favorable one for snow across TX.

It’s good to see you posting again. Hope you’re feeling better. Missed you keeping us grounded on the two near miss snow storms last month in dfw.

[Haris]

GFS keeps warming Tuesday's front a wee bit every run.. Not that I respect these models when it comes to shallow fronts but they keep doing this. The real cold always stays far out and the actual reality seems much milder. Makes sense given climatology I guess. Bright side, marginal cold = better winter wx chances with more moisture

Edit: GFS went way warmer lol

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS keeps warming Tuesday's front a wee bit every run.. Not that I respect these models when it comes to shallow fronts but they keep doing this. The real cold always stays far out and the actual reality seems much milder. Makes sense given climatology I guess. Bright side, marginal cold = better winter wx chances with more moisture

Getting closer to that mid range where models tend to back off a bit. No way of knowing whether it’s accurate or not, but I’m enjoying the ride. Winter storm is still there in some form on the 12z gfs

[utweather]

GFS keeps warming Tuesday's front a wee bit every run.. Not that I respect these models when it comes to shallow fronts but they keep doing this. The real cold always stays far out and the actual reality seems much milder. Makes sense given climatology I guess. Bright side, marginal cold = better winter wx chances with more moisture

Edit: GFS went way warmer lol

We may set a record high temp today.

[Iceresistance]

GFS keeps warming Tuesday's front a wee bit every run.. Not that I respect these models when it comes to shallow fronts but they keep doing this. The real cold always stays far out and the actual reality seems much milder. Makes sense given climatology I guess. Bright side, marginal cold = better winter wx chances with more moisture

Edit: GFS went way warmer lol

But, at Hour 210 on GFS 12z, It's MUCH colder compared to 6z.

[Haris]

GFS keeps warming Tuesday's front a wee bit every run.. Not that I respect these models when it comes to shallow fronts but they keep doing this. The real cold always stays far out and the actual reality seems much milder. Makes sense given climatology I guess. Bright side, marginal cold = better winter wx chances with more moisture

Edit: GFS went way warmer lol

But, at Hour 210 on GFS 12z, It's MUCH colder compared to 6z.

This has been the case all the time LOL. Anything beyond hour 180 is useless in this pattern

[Iceresistance]

GFS keeps warming Tuesday's front a wee bit every run.. Not that I respect these models when it comes to shallow fronts but they keep doing this. The real cold always stays far out and the actual reality seems much milder. Makes sense given climatology I guess. Bright side, marginal cold = better winter wx chances with more moisture

Edit: GFS went way warmer lol

But, at Hour 210 on GFS 12z, It's MUCH colder compared to 6z.

This has been the case all the time LOL. Anything beyond hour 180 is useless in this pattern

I've just noticed that the air is more colder when it's more compact even though it's farther North.


It's more broader on 6z, but colder to the South

[orangeblood]

Just a suggestion...until we get within 120 hrs or 5 days out, put much more weight into the Ensembles and their trends. Looking at every Operational run is a wild roller coaster ride until you get within the 4-5 day mark!!

[txtwister78]

The GEFS is incoming now and it continues to look colder. I would rely/put more weight behind those than individual model runs either way. Operational models will "catch up" should those ENS trends continue. One other thing to note in the short term is the GEFS also shows high temps for Sunday coming down a bit as well than what was indicated just a few days prior.

[bubba hotep]

GFS-P is wild with a major ice storm for NE Texas into Northern Louisiana and some hefty snow totals across portions of N. TX & OK.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is calling for a winter storm next week



24-Hour Snowfall (Higher Amounts within snowbands)


NASTY cold for several days, but it's mostly farther north than 6z


Also, a 1050 MB High centered in Missouri, don't see that every day in Winter.

[Iceresistance]

GFS-P is wild with a major ice storm for NE Texas into Northern Louisiana and some hefty snow totals across portions of N. TX & OK.

Yikes!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says what cold? Moved the 500mb low from Missouri to James Bay late next week. Very progressive pattern. Cold air shifts east. Only a light freeze in Houston next weekend.

[rwfromkansas]

So the parallel GFS says v16 is that an old version or a new model in testing?

[wxman57]

12Z Canadian is much warmer for TX, too.

[Iceresistance]

Animation of the 5 storms in the Southern Plains for the 12z GFS-Para

[HockeyTx82]

12Z GFS says what cold? Moved the 500mb low from Missouri to James Bay late next week. Very progressive pattern. Cold air shifts east. Only a light freeze in Houston next weekend.

Stop messing with the models please.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Most likely a fluke. Otherwise they are expecting the so called pacific atmospheric river to set up once again which is the only thing that could push that high quick enough to force it that far east over Kentucky.

[Ntxw]

So the parallel GFS says v16 is that an old version or a new model in testing?

Parallel is the new updated version slated to take over the current GFS. Plan was for this month however I expect more testing is needed and they may wait another month.

[Ntxw]

12Z Canadian is much warmer for TX, too.

Maybe! Both guidance still keeps DFW at best in the middle 30s (though likely hovering freezing) after Monday night and through to the end of the week. If you're taking them verbatim at the surface.