Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

Imagine the ratios

https://i.ibb.co/fnKTdBc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-27.png

However if you look at the totals it dies over i35e or so and doesn’t total that much. Not that the specific details matter this far out however.

[bevolon]

Does it seem like every evening the models turn warmer or is it just me? just curious.

[TheProfessor]

I know this is not Texas, but I always find these overperformers interesting. Also I'd be pretty miffed if I was still in Columbus.

https://twitter.com/NWSILN/status/1358994279113236480

[EnnisTx]

Imagine the ratios

https://i.ibb.co/fnKTdBc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-27.png

20 to 1 sounds good!

[weatherdude1108]

EWX is lowering temps.


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
935 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

.UPDATE...
We have trended temperatures down for tomorrow across the northeast
CWA, including the Austin metro area. The new 00Z NAM12, which
typically handles the shallow cold/dense air masses well, and the
HRRR are showing a further south progression of the front into our
area tomorrow morning. This may not be too far off based on the
current position of the front, density of the airmass, and latest
upstream pressure rises across North Texas. Locations near and north
of a Llano to Austin to Giddings line may be stuck in the 50s
tomorrow, and potentially upper 40s across Burnet and Williamson
county if the NAM12 fully verifies. South of the front highs in the
70s to low 80s are forecast, so quite the gradient in temperatures
tomorrow across the CWA. Significant changes downward in temps could
be required beyond tomorrow as well, but will allow the mid shift to
get a better look at the 00Z guidance before making additional
changes.

[Cpv17]

Yeah that’s a pretty decent warmup on the GFS. Still plenty cold though but nothing extreme anymore.

[Rgv20]

12zCMC Monday Morning....What can you say?

[Cerlin]

I don’t blame the forecasters for taking this conservatively, as it’s a fine line between icemaggeddon and overhyped panic, but at some point they have to start looking at a model other than the Euro.

Every model is initializing warm and they are still showing these insane solutions. The chances of a bust are slimmer every day. I’d expect the forecast offices and news channels to swiftly change their tones over the next day or two.

[harp]

CMC doesn't sustain the cold as long. Big difference than the 12Z run.

[Cerlin]

Currently going on 15 hours below freezing so far in Norman and it doesn’t look like that will change anytime soon. There’s been light drizzle and patchy fog all day and freezing fog is expected overnight and into the morning. Sustained freezing fog at 21° could end up being hazardous and cause a lot of untreated spots to ice over if it’s thick enough.

[HockeyTx82]

I'm sensing another round of jumping off the cliff. Perhaps when posting trending warmer or not as long can you all post what you mean with actual numbers?

Warmer from 0F can still be pretty darn cold.

Also, at what point do we toss out long range and go with the NAM and other models that handle the short range better?

[Ntxw]

I'm sensing another round of jumping off the cliff. Perhaps when posting trending warmer or not as long can you all post what you mean with actual numbers?

Warmer from 0F can still be pretty darn cold.

Also, at what point do we toss out long range and go with the NAM and other models that handle the short range better?

Warmer as in not historically breaking all time record lows below zero cold. Cliff diving days are over I think. It's about how low can it go now. It is a few degrees warmer than the 12z run but overall all of the guidance are in a general ballpark now and converging up until about Sunday. It's like wobble watching since we're so used to looking at insanely low temp maps.

Edit: We're also watching the Pacific system, it puts up a lot of SW flow (keep repeating this term). We're watching several features that also play a part in how low it goes.

[txtwister78]

I'm sensing another round of jumping off the cliff. Perhaps when posting trending warmer or not as long can you all post what you mean with actual numbers?

Warmer from 0F can still be pretty darn cold.

Also, at what point do we toss out long range and go with the NAM and other models that handle the short range better?

Warmer as in not historically breaking all time record lows below zero cold. Cliff diving days are over I think. It's about how low can it go now. It is a few degrees warmer than the 12z run but overall all of the guidance are in a general ballpark now and converging up until about Sunday. It's like wobble watching since we're so used to looking at insanely low temp maps.

Exactly. I think folks would be wise not to take every model at face value. Consider where things stand tonight (front making much more progress than globals had initially) and so why would you then take them at face value a few days later? The good rule of thumb (at least in my opinion) is take the extremes from both sides (colder and "warmer") and throw that out and then take the middle route (with current trends factored in) as it relates to temps. We are still likely to see a few minor adjustments either way but overall this is still a very cold outbreak headed our way.

As we get closer to the weekend, the HI Res models will become even more important.

[Cerlin]

Models will always shift around. Ralph and STX Storms were very consistent on disregarding warmer shifts and calling for a colder snap like this over the past week. Sometimes sticking to your guns and understanding the nuances of complex patterns like this can also yield greater returns than just amalgamating the models.

[Ntxw]

I'm sensing another round of jumping off the cliff. Perhaps when posting trending warmer or not as long can you all post what you mean with actual numbers?

Warmer from 0F can still be pretty darn cold.

Also, at what point do we toss out long range and go with the NAM and other models that handle the short range better?

Warmer as in not historically breaking all time record lows below zero cold. Cliff diving days are over I think. It's about how low can it go now. It is a few degrees warmer than the 12z run but overall all of the guidance are in a general ballpark now and converging up until about Sunday. It's like wobble watching since we're so used to looking at insanely low temp maps.

Exactly. I think folks would be wise not to take every model at face value. Consider where things stand tonight (front making much more progress than globals had initially) and so why would you then take them at face value a few days later? The good rule of thumb (at least in my opinion) is take the extremes from both sides (colder and "warmer") and throw that out and then take the middle route (with current trends factored in) as it relates to temps. We are still likely to see a few minor adjustments either way but overall this is still a very cold outbreak headed our way.

As we get closer to the weekend, the HI Res models will become even more important.

Yeah we still have some busting to do short range as it is. I'm still amazed at what is happening upstream and even in the area right now. Any maps or temps we post beyond Sunday is 7 days away so folks should be aware of that cold or warm.

[BigD938]

So this starting like mid week and going through mid week next week? Total newb here

Kaufman co by the way

[Lagreeneyes03]

Fox 4 going very conservative. Curious to see what they do going forward over the next day or two.

Whoever was on Channel 8 in for Delkus just said no travel issues no big storm

I get they don't want to alarm people but that's just irresponsible. People may be stuck indoors for 5+ days. I did a costco run this evening for bottled water and TP. Told the guy at the check out that it's about to get nuts as the off TV mets know that we are in for some cold and 2 to 3 winter weather events in the next week.

[Brent]

So this starting like mid week and going through mid week next week? Total newb here

Kaufman co by the way

Yeah it's a step down basically possibly ice Thursday and then turns even colder Saturday and Sunday and maybe another storm or two at some point by early next week before it warms up basically

[Brent]

Heh the euro is much warmer again Saturday is near 40 in Dallas

Only mid to upper 20s Sunday morning

Sunday near freezing lol

Snow moving in Monday morning

[SnowintheFalls]

I sense a bit of skepticism from you but I get it! lol I am rooting for your your drought to end with this pattern and you won't have to travel to see snow!