Texas Winter 2020-2021

[JDawg512]

You know I honestly would prefer that we don't see low teens or single digit temps. Temps like that in this region will most definitely cause trouble regardless if we see any precipitation. I don't mind the cold, in fact I prefer it over the heat... well actually I prefer it raining more than anything but that's beside the point. Anyways, hoping it doesn't get too crazy this weekend but will prepare just in case.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS showing that only 3 Ensemble Members has no snow in Central Oklahoma. Mean is 2-3 inches in DFW, 5-6 in Central Oklahoma



Personal Favorites: 1, 2, 3, 4 (Also includes DFW), 5, 11 (Also in DFW as well), 12, 14, 15, 17 & 18.

0z GEFS, more Ensembles saying snow, Mean is 2-4 inches in DFW, 6-8 inches in Central Oklahoma



Personal Favorites: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 (A LOT of snow!), 11, 12, 14, 15, 19 & 20.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS Animation



24-hour Snowfall (Kuchera Ratio)



Vs. 0z GFS, less snow from the BIG Weekend Winter Storm, but more snow from other systems . . .



24-hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[CaptinCrunch]

For winter wx lovers this is a dream setup, focus on 29 degress, when do we hit that mark, and how long will we stay in that zone ? Yes, temps are running 5-6 below most model solutions, that's key for the DFW area starting Wednesday morning. The guys over in the NWS office FTW are busy playing catch-up and you have already seen changes to the forecast just in the last 18 hrs. We are going to see a stretch of below 32 days, we are going to have precip within the same period, it's really just a matter of how much precip, and where if falls.

Watch the dew point continue to slowly drop as the drier Arctic air continues to settle in. DP at all 3 airports in Tarrant as of 4am had dropped below 32 degrees. Once that DP gets down to 30 then we have a better chance for temps to drop closer to that DP. Wichita Falls shows a temp of 23 @ 4am, that's about 4-5 colder than models forecast. Denton is currently @ 32, DFW @ 34, Grand Prairie @ 36, these are 3-4 lower than forecast and the trend will continue. DFW could make it back up to 40 today but I doubt it, I think we are going to remain in the upper 30s for this afternoon and then drop to freezing or below tonight. Tomorrow my be close as highs will remain in low 30s to near the freezing mark, again keep an eye on dew points, the lower it goes the more likely we see a significant ice event heading into Thursday.

[BrokenGlass]

Well. Just stepped out to let the dogs out and there is some light drizzle falling...




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[Ntxw]

DFW has fallen to 32F.

It is a significant temp bust by guidance.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW has fallen to 32F.

It is a significant temp bust by guidance.

This will change the forecast again
Once we get down to 32 this evening it's just a gradual decline from there.

[Ntxw]

DFW has fallen to 32F.

It is a significant temp bust by guidance.

This will change the forecast again
Once we get down to 32 this evening it's just a gradual decline from there.

Cold air advection continues and with overcast I doubt there is much of a temp recovery.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW has fallen to 32F.

It is a significant temp bust by guidance.

This will change the forecast again
Once we get down to 32 this evening it's just a gradual decline from there.

Cold air advection continues and with overcast I doubt there is much of a temp recovery.

Yes Sir, icing conditions may begin earlier as in tomorrow and through Thursday. I have that feeling NWS FTW will issue winter wx advisory later today for most of NTX

[WacoWx]

My weather station in Dallas currently:

32.7 temp
32.0 dew point

[Ralph's Weather]

Shreveport NWS has come around as of this morning. They have Sat with a high of 34 and chance of mix. Sunday 15/26 and sunny. Monday 18/28 with a chance of snow. They have us in the upper 40s today and tomorrow. Around here that is a very tough call with the warm front sitting on top of us.

[Ntxw]

Also FW AFD mentioned wind chill/hard freeze language for the weekend. Likely wind chill advisories or warnings to come later in the week.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
529 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The cold front has nearly cleared the entire CWA to the southeast
as of 5am. The entire region has become engulfed in post-frontal
stratus with some patchy mist and drizzle also occurring. As
previously mentioned, the NAM is the lone piece of guidance that
has adequately handled this shallow arctic airmass, as is often
the case, and the short term forecast will continue to heavily
rely upon it. Fortunately, drizzle is largely only occurring in
areas that are at or above freezing, and no significant travel
issues should arise this morning. The main focus through the short
term is the potential for widespread drizzle to occur tonight,
some of which could result in icing in parts of North Texas as
temperatures fall into the low/mid 20s. The remainder of the
short term forecast below remains on track at this time.

-Stalley

[Texas Snow]

32 vs forecasted 44 in Far North Dallas

[somethingfunny]

From KTEN

Northbound traffic on 75 in Denison has come to a stop. Ice on bridges/overpasses has led to several accidents all across Texoma this morning. Be very careful if you have to be out. Black ice is a major issue today and will be the next several days.

[Ntxw]

32 vs forecasted 44 in Far North Dallas

Looks like a forecast from the Euro. So far temp wise with this shallow air mass I give it a firm F- score.

[HockeyTx82]

29.8 here in Ponder right now. 32 was my forecasted low......

Looks like I'm matching Denton Airport. So yup, it's colder then forecasted and here we go.

[Ntxw]

31F now at DFW airport.

[bubba hotep]

Station at the airport is down to 30F but have to wait for the next update by NWS. That would continue the trend of temps busting the hi-res models. The 03z SREF tried to play catch up after the 21z fell behind but no luck. However, this cold is very shallow and models show the freezing line retreating back towards the Red River through the day. Now to see if that happens.

[Yukon Cornelius]

There appears to be light snow falling up this way. 19 F

[rwfromkansas]

31 here IMBY.

Mystified why the Euro puts DFW above freezing Saturday. Don’t see it after a few days anyway. The first round will be easier to push.

Also winter weather advisory just issued. Just north of DFW.