Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

With the actual temps staying this low in DFW for a couple days in a row that is really going to play havoc if the temps are cold enough for freezing rain Thursday morning with that much QPF. I did a sounding at my house on the HRRR and it showed 30 as opposed to the generic 32 for all of Dallas. If that misses by another degree or 2 (or 3), bridges are easily bad but also trees and some roads.


And look here we are at 200 pages with a major Polar Outbreak and chances for winter mischief across the entire state for another week. It's gonna be FUN!

[txtwister78]

Definitely something to keep an eye on for Thursday (freezing rain threat making it into the Hill Country) per the extended 18z HRRR.

[hriverajr]

Everyone has been referencing model busts which were too warm ... well, I've got one one for ya ... the NAM busted way too cold today. This morning it was showing temps holding in the upper 40s to near 50 here in Austin. Instead we have rising temps close to 60 degrees now after an initial cool down. Very shallow cold air just along the surface and the frontal boundary is between us and San Antonio. Definitely making for problematic forecasts by computer and human alike!

79 outside my house here in Del Rio

[Portastorm]

Everyone has been referencing model busts which were too warm ... well, I've got one one for ya ... the NAM busted way too cold today. This morning it was showing temps holding in the upper 40s to near 50 here in Austin. Instead we have rising temps close to 60 degrees now after an initial cool down. Very shallow cold air just along the surface and the frontal boundary is between us and San Antonio. Definitely making for problematic forecasts by computer and human alike!

79 outside my house here in Del Rio

Wxman57 flew all the way down to Australia and, instead, he could have just driven down ol' Highway 90 to Del Rio for nice, sunny, warm weather!

[rwfromkansas]

Del Rio is the torch of Texas. No offense to anybody living there, but it's always so hot.

[HockeyTx82]

31 at Denton, still has a high of 38 for today? Not seeing that happen.

[Rgv20]

Everyone has been referencing model busts which were too warm ... well, I've got one one for ya ... the NAM busted way too cold today. This morning it was showing temps holding in the upper 40s to near 50 here in Austin. Instead we have rising temps close to 60 degrees now after an initial cool down. Very shallow cold air just along the surface and the frontal boundary is between us and San Antonio. Definitely making for problematic forecasts by computer and human alike!

79 outside my house here in Del Rio

Currently 82 in McAllen

[bubba hotep]

Anyone want to take a stab at what's going on with the 18z 3k NAM? 21z forecast shown.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville just updated the forecast for my area...Looks like they are discounting the ECMWF.

Code: Select all

Sunday Night
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Washington's Birthday
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Texas Snow]

31 at Denton, still has a high of 38 for today? Not seeing that happen.

I made it to 34.2 but since its bobbing back to to 33.8 now I guess I have peaked for the day. How low can we go is the question now with precip in the mix.

[Iceresistance]

Still Snow outside trying to mix with Freezing Mist, 19°F

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean and Control runs are showing snowfall amounts over 1 inch, with the potential for a major winter storm across much of the northern half of the state on Monday.

What are the 12z CMC Ensembles looking like in terms of Mean & Ensemble Snowfall?

Seems a little low to me. 1 inch in Oklahoma but 0.50 inch down to Houston.

[Captmorg70]

Anyone want to take a stab at what's going on with the 18z 3k NAM? 21z forecast shown.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021020918/nam3km_T2m_scus_3.png

So it may have missed by a little bit...



Wonder how the temperatures effect the next 2 days. The freezing rain forecasts don't seem as bad if we stay right around freezing or slightly above through the next cold front.

However if the short range models are off on Temps, the freezing rain could be more of an issue right?

[hriverajr]

Del Rio is the torch of Texas. No offense to anybody living there, but it's always so hot.

Unfortunately it is, as is Eagle Pass and Laredo.

[Quixotic]

31 at Denton, still has a high of 38 for today? Not seeing that happen.

46 was what they predicted yesterday. Quite a bust.

[wxman57]

You are above freezing. 32.0 is freezing

32.4 is still 32 degrees. 31.5 is the same thing as 32.4. It’s rounded to 32.

But when talking the freezing point of water 32.0 is when it freezes, right? Water would not freeze at 32.4. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

At 32F and standard atmospheric pressure, water will generally freeze. However, you can have freezing rain on trees and power lines when the 2m air temperature is 34-36 degrees. Some objects cool down below the air temperature, allowing water to freeze when surface temps are above 32F.

[Quixotic]

Anyone want to take a stab at what's going on with the 18z 3k NAM? 21z forecast shown.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021020918/nam3km_T2m_scus_3.png

Unless they're anticipating a break in cloud cover.

[captainbarbossa19]

NWS Brownsville just updated the forecast for my area...Looks like they are discounting the ECMWF.

Code: Select all

Sunday Night
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Washington's Birthday
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Why are they referring to Washington's birthday? His birthday is February 22 not the 15th.

[gboudx]

I'm a teacher also, and also a hs coach. Our girl's basketball team is supposed to have a playoff game this Thursday night. What are the chances it gets postponed due to road conditions that evening? Or will it get better after the early morning hours and throughout the day? Thanks for your thoughts.

It may just depend on where both teams are coming from for the game, and if the roads have a chance to recover from any initial icing. My son's varsity soccer team has a game Friday evening at 7:30 and the other team is coming from Tyler. I'm thinking that's in jeopardy.

BTW, I'm a bit jealous of your basketball game which is indoors. Why does high school soccer have to be a winter sport?

[Texas Snow]

NWS Brownsville just updated the forecast for my area...Looks like they are discounting the ECMWF.

Code: Select all

Sunday Night
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Washington's Birthday
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Why are they referring to Washington's birthday? His birthday is February 22 not the 15th.

Perhaps because that's when the National Holiday is for it this year? Its odd because its called both that and President's Day