Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

Not to be left out, the 15z SREF

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Ensembles not as Aggressive as it was at 12z

No Ensembles have no snow for Central Oklahoma

Member 19 is less than 1-2 inches, & Members 4, 9, & 20 are under 4-5 inches of snow in Central Oklahoma.



Mean snowfall is 8-9 inches in Central Oklahoma & 5-7 inches in DFW.

[gboudx]

18z GEFS Ensembles not as Aggressive as it was at 12z

No Ensembles have no snow for Central Oklahoma

Member 19 is less than 1-2 inches, & Members 4, 9, & 20 are under 4-5 inches of snow in Central Oklahoma.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_3845d6b1fa8d4f2633b.png

Mean snowfall is 8-9 inches in Central Oklahoma & 5-7 inches in DFW.

I have no idea what those images are that you're posting, but I get that they're showing some form of wintry precip at different time intervals. Since you've posted those over several days, I wonder have we reached the time frame where any of the earlier one's you've posted can be scrutinized for accuracy? Maybe keep a screenshot of these to see just how close they resemble reality when we get to their time frames. I see them when you post them, but I don't know if they're to be taken seriously, or eye-candy and entertainment purposes only.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Ensembles not as Aggressive as it was at 12z

No Ensembles have no snow for Central Oklahoma

Member 19 is less than 1-2 inches, & Members 4, 9, & 20 are under 4-5 inches of snow in Central Oklahoma.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_3845d6b1fa8d4f2633b.png

Mean snowfall is 8-9 inches in Central Oklahoma & 5-7 inches in DFW.

I have no idea what those images are that you're posting, but I get that they're showing some form of wintry precip at different time intervals. Since you've posted those over several days, I wonder have we reached the time frame where any of the earlier one's you've posted can be scrutinized for accuracy? Maybe keep a screenshot of these to see just how close they resemble reality when we get to their time frames. I see them when you post them, but I don't know if they're to be taken seriously, or eye-candy and entertainment purposes only.

The storms are 3-7 days apart, likely to change, but no sign of anything that could drop the chances for snow, currently trusting the Ensembles more than the Operational Models until there is more agreement on the timing & amount of Winter Precip. that is still coming.

I'm taking them Seriously when it's this close right now, but it used to be like "Well, Look at this!".

Don't want to do the Loop because Ensemble Member 20 in COD Meteorology (Where I'm getting the GEFS Ensembles from) is kinda weird . . .

[SnowintheFalls]

18z GEFS Ensembles not as Aggressive as it was at 12z

No Ensembles have no snow for Central Oklahoma

Member 19 is less than 1-2 inches, & Members 4, 9, & 20 are under 4-5 inches of snow in Central Oklahoma.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_3845d6b1fa8d4f2633b.png

Mean snowfall is 8-9 inches in Central Oklahoma & 5-7 inches in DFW.

I have no idea what those images are that you're posting, but I get that they're showing some form of wintry precip at different time intervals. Since you've posted those over several days, I wonder have we reached the time frame where any of the earlier one's you've posted can be scrutinized for accuracy? Maybe keep a screenshot of these to see just how close they resemble reality when we get to their time frames. I see them when you post them, but I don't know if they're to be taken seriously, or eye-candy and entertainment purposes only.

Unfortunately that is over 2 weeks away. Those are probably just eye candy for now.

[Iceresistance]

WPC calling for a 'likely' chance of snow over Northern Texas & Central Oklahoma Next Monday . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GEFS Ensembles not as Aggressive as it was at 12z

No Ensembles have no snow for Central Oklahoma

Member 19 is less than 1-2 inches, & Members 4, 9, & 20 are under 4-5 inches of snow in Central Oklahoma.
I
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_3845d6b1fa8d4f2633b.png

Mean snowfall is 8-9 inches in Central Oklahoma & 5-7 inches in DFW.

I have no idea what those images are that you're posting, but I get that they're showing some form of wintry precip at different time intervals. Since you've posted those over several days, I wonder have we reached the time frame where any of the earlier one's you've posted can be scrutinized for accuracy? Maybe keep a screenshot of these to see just how close they resemble reality when we get to their time frames. I see them when you post them, but I don't know if they're to be taken seriously, or eye-candy and entertainment purposes only.

Unfortunately that is over 2 weeks away. Those are probably just eye candy for now.

t’s not, it’s the total snowfall accumulation between now and the end of the run

[Haris]

HRRR which handled temps decent in Austin (upper 50s for today ) now showing a high of 39F for Wednesday, not Thursday . Coldest run yet. Wow

[AubreyStorm]

Dropped 2 degrees to 32 IMBY so clearly CAA still ongoing as sun goes away.

I don't think Denton got above 32 today........

Right now at 7:31pm
Feels Like 21

[Iceresistance]

Okay then, I'll do the GIFs for the Potental Triple Trouble on the GEFS Ensembles from now on . . .

(Something is weird with Member 20)



Ensemble Snowfall



Mean snowfall up to +276 hours

[Ntxw]

WPC calling for a 'likely' chance of snow over Northern Texas & Central Oklahoma Next Monday . . .

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf144.gif

This is likely why the FW forecasters are so bullish and willing to exclusively predict it. They often mention "national forecasts" and my belief is the statistical forecasts provided by the WPC.

It's probably too early to dive too deep but there's a deep arctic boundary that may set up for a highway of strong frontal dynamics. We'll have to see, some impressive snow totals of over 20" was had in 2011 where the boundary was in Oklahoma and Arkansas back then.

[gboudx]

The storms are 3-7 days apart, likely to change, but no sign of anything that could drop the chances for snow, currently trusting the Ensembles more than the Operational Models until there is more agreement on the timing & amount of Winter Precip. that is still coming.

I'm taking them Seriously when it's this close right now, but it used to be like "Well, Look at this!".

Don't want to do the Loop because Ensemble Member 20 in COD Meteorology (Where I'm getting the GEFS Ensembles from) is kinda weird . . .

Thanks. I have noticed that the later graphics posted are either moving the wintry precip further south, or extending it. Seems like a good thing for us Tx folks.

[opticsguy]

20+ degree temperature bust from Saturday models. Courtesy of Iowa State meterology

[SoupBone]

Weather Underground gives Houston a VERY small window for snow on Monday. I've played that game before and usually bust. Not buying it this time.

[Haris]

Ooooh I’m intrigued. HRRR now suggesting sleet and freezing rain near the Austin area Thu am

[TexasSam]

He did in 2011!

Let's no go there. On the upside in 2011 I only had to mow the yard 2 times that year. no rain.

[Iceresistance]

He did in 2011!

Let's no go there. On the upside in 2011 I only had to mow the yard 2 times that year. no rain.

Urgh, the heat wave of 2011 was awful . . .

Over 60 days over 100°F & over 120 days over 90°F . . . it was very bad

[SnowintheFalls]

I have no idea what those images are that you're posting, but I get that they're showing some form of wintry precip at different time intervals. Since you've posted those over several days, I wonder have we reached the time frame where any of the earlier one's you've posted can be scrutinized for accuracy? Maybe keep a screenshot of these to see just how close they resemble reality when we get to their time frames. I see them when you post them, but I don't know if they're to be taken seriously, or eye-candy and entertainment purposes only.

Unfortunately that is over 2 weeks away. Those are probably just eye candy for now.

t’s not, it’s the total snowfall accumulation between now and the end of the run

Oops, I guess I let the pessimism get the best of me!

[SnowintheFalls]

He did in 2011!

Let's no go there. On the upside in 2011 I only had to mow the yard 2 times that year. no rain.

Urgh, the heat wave of 2011 was awful . . .

Over 60 days over 100°F & over 120 days over 90°F . . . it was very bad

It was brutal! I remember walking the bottom of Lake Arrowhead wondering if life was ever going to return to our lakes. We got out of the drought with a few days of flooding and torrential downpours. It was craziness!

[InfernoFlameCat]

2011 an EF5 took out my lake house I was only 8