Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

2nd big winter storm is cranking on the Euro a few days later.

Edit: Surface looks a little dry with this one on this run, but potential is there.

[txtwister78]

One thing that needs to be watched across S. Central/Central Texas region is the potential for significant icing overnight into early Thursday morning. Models are becoming a little more bullish on that potential.

[Iceresistance]

I have tried to post video of the Abilene snow from their Facebook page, but it's definitely snow, and not just snow grains. I give up trying to post it. I uploaded it to Img, but it just shows image blank when I share it here. Only a dusting so far, but it's definitely legit snow.

Have the Photo uploaded to GIF sites like Gifyu, that is what I do for my photos . . .

[Ntxw]

FW has expanded the WWA down to central Texas part of the CWA (Temple) covering 2/3rds of the WFO.

[ATCcane]

Just saw a TXDOT truck north of Bryan on Hwy 6 headed north treating the road.

[Iceresistance]

FW has expanded the WWA down to central Texas part of the CWA (Temple) covering 2/3rds of the WFO.

Up to 1/4 inch of Ice down there . . .

[txtwister78]

FW has expanded the WWA down to central Texas part of the CWA (Temple) covering 2/3rds of the WFO.

My guess is EWX (AUS/SAT) will probably add this to the Hill Country area later today

[rwfromkansas]

Would it be accurate that it's increasingly looking like DFW will get spared tonight? Looks like mainly drizzle with the rain south.

[Ntxw]

Would it be accurate that it's increasingly looking like DFW will get spared tonight? Looks like mainly drizzle with the rain south.

For us, it's about how much qpf spawns. Temps not the issue, more qpf will mean more serious event. For Central Texas it's the other way round, if they run colder then more icing for them.

[cheezyWXguy]

Would it be accurate that it's increasingly looking like DFW will get spared tonight? Looks like mainly drizzle with the rain south.

For us, it's about how much qpf spawns. Temps not the issue, more qpf will mean more serious event. For Central Texas it's the other way round, if they run colder then more icing for them.

Forecast has been updated, at least for Dallas county, to include accumulations of 0.1-0.3”

With temps colder than expected, I would imagine totals have been increased a county or two south as well where the models show the highest totals

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like they extended the advisory into tomorrow afternoon and south and are talking now of travel becoming hazardous. Ope, somebody else mentioned this, sorry. So many posts.

[orangeblood]

Glacial Onslaught from both the GFS and Euro for the Lower 48 next 10 days, Incredible!!! About as wild of a 7-10 days you'll find during any season!

[bubba hotep]

Glacial Onslaught from both the GFS and Euro for the Lower 48 next 10 days, Incredible!!! About as wild of a 7-10 days you'll find during any season!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/total_snow_kuchera/1612958400/1613822400-fKTH898e0T8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/total_snow_kuchera/1612958400/1613822400-fZ3qDdADSjU.png

Haven't seen maps like that with the solution being considered legit since moving to Dallas. It seems like all of the big events, since I've been here, started as rain with snow amounts being uncertain because of change over timing.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Curious what the main elements are that would drive the precipitation shield more southerly like the Canadian and GFS vs, say, the Euro.

What should I be watching for as this event starts? I'm supposed to be operating a flight out of AUS on Monday around noon, and wouldn't complain about just getting stuck at home.

[rwfromkansas]

I wonder if the cold will have an impact on the upper MS River shipping areas once it settles up there. I am already seeing photos of icy rivers up in KS.

[gpsnowman]

I wonder if the cold will have an impact on the upper MS River shipping areas once it settles up there. I am already seeing photos of icy rivers up in KS.

Ice floes down to New Orleans? Not impossible.

[TheAustinMan]

Watching this unfold here in Austin is more interesting than being perpetually below freezing in Ithaca, I must say.

Temps are slowly crawling their way up the 40s, but with cloud cover and northerlies in place, I doubt it'll get to the 48F Euro was suggesting for this afternoon.

As has often been mentioned here, this cold spell + winter precip event has historic implications for the record books. The model guidance, even the ensembles, point to quite a doozy of an event for the Austin area, not to mention the other folks around the entire state down to the Rio Grande.

Taking the 12z GFS guide, we'd have the following metrics for Austin (Camp Mabry, specifically):

• A low of 1°F on Mon/Tue night :: This would rank as the 2nd lowest temperature on record, lowest for February
• An afternoon high of 15°F on Monday :: This would rank as the lowest daytime high on record, the old record being 21F.
• Daily record lows would be set on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
• 117 consecutive hours below freezing.
• 4 consecutive days with highs below freezing :: This would be a tie for 2nd along with late January 1951, and 1 day short of 1983.
• 7 consecutive days with lows below freezing.

Of course, there's also the possible snow-related stats, but I'll keep those aside for now given the variability of snow outputs on model guidance. It's worth noting that January 1985 was the last time Austin received more than 3" of snow from a single event. There was a 7" event in 1944 and a 6.5" event in 1949.

[Iceresistance]

Snowing outside right now, 20°F

[cheezyWXguy]

18z HRRR has a cluster of heavy freezing rain approaching dfw at hour 24. This won’t be good...

[Ntxw]

Still 30F at DFW, sounds like a broken record.

It's not out of the question some areas may not get above freezing (even if so not by much) until next weekend (10 days) especially if there is meaningful snow cover. At this point if the forecasts verify, not much you can do to save the cold intolerant plants aside from bringing them in if you can. The stretch of cold will likely be too much and with the conditions possible Sun-Tues, hard to do anything about it. Mother nature reminding us killer freezes can still happen.