Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

GFS MOS extended for DFW (statistical) afternoon high of 7 on Monday (12 early in the day after midnight) and a low of 4 Tuesday morning. NWS loves MOS, will they tag along with it?

Code: Select all

KDFW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/10/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17|THU CLIMO
 N/X  28  38| 24  31| 21  25| 20  24|  6   7|  3  20| 11  27| 20 38 60
 TMP  30  35| 26  27| 23  23| 22  20| 12   7|  4  19| 13  25| 21     
 DPT  22  25| 17  13| 14  14| 15  12|  1  -2| -2   7|  8  14| 15     
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV     
 WND  17  17| 18  18| 16  16| 15  21| 24  22| 16   9|  9  10| 12     
 P12  70  17|  9  11| 22  34| 29  39| 68  57| 13  17| 21  27| 32 15 14
 P24      70|     15|     34|     48|     69|     17|     49|       21
 Q12   1   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  4   2|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       1|      0|      1|      1|      3|      0|       |         
 T12  15   3|  2   2|  2   2|  2   3|  3   2|  1   2|  3   4|  5     
 T24        |  3    |  2    |  2    |  3    |  2    |  5    |  5     
 PZP  53  24| 28  34| 40  39| 39  22| 26   5|  7   9| 14  14| 11     
 PSN   0  17|  4  52| 59  46| 60  68| 66  81| 78  65| 57  49| 42     
 PRS  18   0| 25   2|  0  15|  0  10|  6   5|  2   0|  3   7|  5     
 TYP   Z   R|  Z   Z|  Z   Z|  Z   S|  Z   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S     
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      1|      2|      0|       |         

Just as wild for Austin.

Code: Select all

KAUS   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/10/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17|THU CLIMO
 N/X  36  41| 33  38| 30  37| 26  33| 11  11|  3  30| 20  34| 26 42 65
 TMP  40  38| 35  35| 32  32| 28  27| 19   9|  7  29| 21  33| 27     
 DPT  31  32| 29  26| 24  23| 23  22|  8   0|  3  18| 19  25| 22     
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV     
 WND  15  18| 15  16| 15  16| 14  13| 29  29| 14  12| 12  10| 19     
 P12  21  82| 54  23| 18  41| 21  25| 75  51| 11  11| 17  38| 42999999
 P24      82|     59|     41|     35|     75|     11|     43|       27
 Q12   0   3|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  4   2|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       3|      1|      1|      1|      4|      0|       |         
 T12  30  17|  4   4|  2   3|  3   3|  4   4|  1   3|  4   5|  5     
 T24        | 19    |  4    |  3    |  4    |  4    |  6    |  8     
 PZP   9   9|  7  22| 23  38| 36  36| 36  11|  8  15| 21  26| 18     
 PSN   0   0|  2   7|  9  12| 18  22| 15  65| 67  48| 45  35| 25     
 PRS   4   3|  4   5| 11  19| 16   2| 19   6|  0   0|  0   1|  4     
 TYP   R   R|  R   R| RS   Z|  Z   Z|  Z   S|  S   S|  Z   Z|  Z   

I think you nailed it. They just updated long term and got pretty close at my house with a low of 7. WOW

[wxman57]

Near 90 at the beach in Darwin today. I hear y’all may get a winter storm up there? Well, you’ve been wanting this. Going to have my butler fill up 6 Home Depot 5-gallon tubs of water on Sunday, as he’ll be shutting off water to the house and draining the pipes Sunday afternoon to maybe noon Tuesday. Will need water for cleaning and toilets. Won’t have to worry about food spoiling in the freezer, as we can just have him put the stuff outside.

Think I’ll go snorkeling tomorrow. Have fun with the cold.

[jasons2k]

Some light returns starting to appear on radar headed towards DFW, no idea if its making it to the ground tho


instagram photo full size download

What map are you using? Haven’t seen that one.

[SoupBone]

Near 90 at the beach in Darwin today. I hear y’all may get a winter storm up there? Well, you’ve been wanting this. Going to have my butler fill up 6 Home Depot 5-gallon tubs of water on Sunday, as he’ll be shutting off water to the house and draining the pipes Sunday afternoon to maybe noon Tuesday. Will need water for cleaning and toilets. Won’t have to worry about food spoiling in the freezer, as we can just have him put the stuff outside.

Think I’ll go snorkeling tomorrow. Have fun with the cold.

Are you really shutting your water off?

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

[SoupBone]

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

I just can't agree with this for Houston, typical Joe.

[HockeyTx82]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Is he being serious or just trying to get attention/followers?

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 put out their forecast at 4:20 PM

Storm #1: 1-3 inches of snow

Storm #2: 6-12 inches of snow

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV NWS issued WWA for tonight and tomorrow morning for the their NW TX counties and north of Red River.

[WeatherNewbie]

Some light returns starting to appear on radar headed towards DFW, no idea if its making it to the ground tho

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wzmv8qx/Capture1.png [/url]
instagram photo full size download

the sky looks quite dark and saturated to the southwest from downtown dallas right now.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like I peaked at 32 and am dropping/steady. One thing that can’t be emphasized enough is that this long period of freezing or maybe later before the big dump near-freezing weather is that it will prime us for efficient snowfall. You won’t have to waste an hour of snow before it accumulates. The first flake will stick both on ground and streets. That is so rare for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Time to stock up on milk sandwiches and whiskey.

[HockeyTx82]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Time to stock up on milk sandwiches and whiskey.

What's a milk sandwich?

[cheezyWXguy]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Time to stock up on milk sandwiches and whiskey.

Milk sandwiches are my favorite

[orangeblood]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Is he being serious or just trying to get attention/followers?

He has some great points, this is an extremely dangerous situation setting up...particularly when it comes to road maintenance in emergency situations, agricultural/livestock businesses and our homeless population that's been sky rocketing!!

[cstrunk]

SHV NWS issued WWA for tonight and tomorrow morning for the their NW TX counties and north of Red River.

With the freezing line creeping farther south and east, I have to wonder if Longview will be included by late tonight or early morning... It's 40F here currently, but 37F in Gilmer, 34F in Sulphur Springs, and 31F in Paris. A NNW or NW wind would bring those temps this way. The Ouachita mountains are doing a fair job at keeping the colder air a bit farther west, for the time being.

[Haris]

Im down to 36F W of Austin, no way i dont ice tomorrow. this is colder than any model

[Ntxw]

I think you nailed it. They just updated long term and got pretty close at my house with a low of 7. WOW

Even so they are taking a conservative approach which I think they will continue to do until late week. It's looking more like some areas will go below zero if snow is on the ground and optimal cooling takes place. Snow may even start earlier on Sunday for some areas in the north with the sharp gradient deeper Arctic front. Baroclinic instability zone can overachieve sometimes. Afternoon highs on Monday if you take a dynamic approach could struggle to get above 10F. Just ridiculous stuff.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV NWS issued WWA for tonight and tomorrow morning for the their NW TX counties and north of Red River.

With the freezing line creeping farther south and east, I have to wonder if Longview will be included by late tonight or early morning... It's 40F here currently, but 37F in Gilmer, 34F in Sulphur Springs, and 31F in Paris. A NNW or NW wind would bring those temps this way. The Ouachita mountains are doing a fair job at keeping the colder air a bit farther west, for the time being.

I am wondering that myself.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

If I recall the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks, it took awhile even to get close to normal down here in South Texas. I want to say we even had a few "weaker" fronts come the following two or three weeks that put us below freezing for night time lows more than a handful of times and it remained kind of cloudy and damp too. The sun was MIA for the most part.