Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2627
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4761 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:12 pm

You need good conditions in the dendritic growth zone for snow as well, and with colder temps, that's more likely. Can help add things up in a hurry. There's a lot I don't understand about this, but I know from growing up in KS they talked about the DGZ all the time in forecast discussions. When it was ideal, snow dumped.

BigB0882 wrote:
ztshanklin wrote:Forgive my ignorance.

What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1


I always think of it this way. If it is warmer, with temps closer to freezing or even hovering just above at the surface, the snow is usually big wet flakes. They are heavy and they just weigh down each other as they pile up so they tend to kind of condense and pack in on themselves. When it snows with temps well into the 20s and colder, the snow is extremely frozen and much lighter. So the flakes tend to sit on top of each other more and really can pile up higher. Does that make any sense at all?
3 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4762 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:12 pm

TheProfessor wrote:East Texas gets CRUSHED on the CMC. DFW still sees 12-18", but one issue that occurs is that it's a bit dry where snow is created, but the whole column below that isn't so it's not likely to be virga. Snow ratios are comfortable 12-15 to 1.

It really gets things going Wed after it crosses I-35.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

UTSARoadrunner4
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 250
Age: 28
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:19 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4763 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:14 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Bexar County (San Antonio) added to winter weather advisory

Like I said earlier, not surprised.
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4764 Postby gboudx » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:16 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:Stupid Question:

So, every time the temperature gets in the low 20's for about 2 days our pipes ALWAYS freeze (along with the neighborhood). We have pex tubing in the attic. I'm a little concerned with temperatures dropping in the single digits or WORSE.

So the question is, if I simply leave the water running (not full blast, but much more than a drip), will that keep the pipes from freezing?


First, not a stupid question. Is the whole house affected or just specific faucets? In our case, the water supply to our island kitchen sink has frozen. I was stumped until I went into a house being built that is the same as ours and realized the pex is run in the attic, then down an exterior wall to the slab where it connects to plumbing to the sink. I figure it was freezing in the exterior wall so now when the temps get low like this, we leave the cabinets open.
0 likes   

cstrunk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 638
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4765 Postby cstrunk » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:19 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:I am am concerned about temps this afternoon here along I-20 in E TX. The Central Texas precip shield will graze us after lunch.


Yeah, from about Tyler westward, it could get nasty. Temps are slooowly moderating here. NWS has Longview at 34F (MyRadar is showing 36F, however), but Gilmer and Tyler both at 30F. Tyler hasn't updated for the 11 AM hour yet, though.
2 likes   

User avatar
JDawg512
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1078
Age: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:56 pm
Location: Austin
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4766 Postby JDawg512 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:20 pm

I have no idea what they are thinking at work but they are currently open. I haven't gone in but I said I would even though I don't really want to. Ice is really building up on branches and power lines and my car is covered in a solid sheet.
3 likes   
Resident Rain Miser

I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4767 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:21 pm

cstrunk wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:I am am concerned about temps this afternoon here along I-20 in E TX. The Central Texas precip shield will graze us after lunch.


Yeah, from about Tyler westward, it could get nasty. Temps are slooowly moderating here. NWS has Longview at 34F (MyRadar is showing 36F, however), but Gilmer and Tyler both at 30F. Tyler hasn't updated for the 11 AM hour yet, though.

Personal weather stations in NW Smith County are around 28 with eastern Van Zandt around 26. If rain gets up here it could be bad. Overpasses around here are bad already but so far surface roads are OK.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4768 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:22 pm

12z CMC

Image

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

Image
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
G'TownGirl
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:58 am
Location: Blue Ridge Mountains (Ga.)

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4769 Postby G'TownGirl » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:24 pm

JDawg512 wrote:I have no idea what they are thinking at work but they are currently open. I haven't gone in but I said I would even though I don't really want to. Ice is really building up on branches and power lines and my car is covered in a solid sheet.


I work in Westlake (drive in from WillCo), and there are a few in my office.... don't know WHAT they are thinking.
3 likes   

cstrunk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 638
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4770 Postby cstrunk » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:25 pm

The best snowstorms are always a week away. :lol:
5 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4771 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol


GFS-P is on crack putting down 30" of snow in the Falls.



It looks like it reduces snow totals as you head SE from the Falls because it has the qpf as freezing rain.
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Wntrwthrguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:48 pm
Location: North Austin

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4772 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:33 pm

If models couldn’t even get the ice storm happening in central Texas correct, who knows what’s going to happen 2-5 days from now.
3 likes   
Any post should not be taken as a forecast. I am just an amateur living the dream.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4773 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:35 pm

A true definition for a Possible PDS Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch for the 12z GFS-Para. :eek:

Image

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall
Image
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 703
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4774 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:38 pm

Light snow and sleet mix outside my workplace right now. Snow sticking to grass immediately. 28F. Belton ISD changed the school day to early release. :D
2 likes   
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4775 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:47 pm

Light snow outside, heavier in bands every once in a while. 18°F
5 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

BigD938
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:32 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4776 Postby BigD938 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:51 pm

Is the precip down south going to make it up to Dallas bad east? Seeing if I need to think about heading home early today
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4777 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:56 pm

What are the 12z GEFS Ensembles Snowfall & Mean Snowfall looking like? COD Meteorology is a complete no-go!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Shoshana
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1414
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: NE Austin

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4778 Postby Shoshana » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:58 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Thanks for asking this. Our neighborhood FB page says our insulation in the attic is good. But, I seriously doubt it can handle single-digit temps. But, I don't think we can bring portable electric heaters up there, that would be dangerous. May have to get pipe insulation. They say Pex handles cold better at least.


Yup, I mentioned to my wife about putting a couple of heaters in the attic, but she said probably not a good idea.... so idk...




Another option is pulling down the ladder and leaving it down during the entirety of the cold snap so that some of the heat goes up into your attic. I would do that in combination with running the water at a little more than just a drip. I'd rather pay a higher electricity and water bill than have busted pipes in an attic. We have the same thing but I don't think our temps should get that low, even though the latest GFS has us hitting 9 degrees. I'm hoping that's out to lunch for us in SELA.


That’s an interesting idea about the ladder. We had the pipes freeze a few years back in the kitchen (our sink is on the north wall) but they unfroze when we turned the stove on (east wall). I ordered a little ceramic heater from Amazon and it is supposed to get here Sunday. Will open bottom cabinets and run the heater in the kitchen when it goes below 25 or so for extended time. Getting it for the extended below freezing forecasted here.

Current weather, wet surface roads, ice on elevated surfaces, rain/sleet/frozen rain/snow mix officially 34, gauge doesn’t work below freezing and it’s currently not working..l
2 likes   

User avatar
JDawg512
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1078
Age: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:56 pm
Location: Austin
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4779 Postby JDawg512 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:11 pm

The temp here at the Rain Cave has gotten to 33 and I am seeing the ice on my car begin to melt. Because I've been running around here covering pipes and stuff, I'm not really following the forecasted temp for today. Earlier I got an alert about staying below freezing for 12 hours, so I'm not sure of this bump in temp will continue or if it will drop below freezing again. Thoughts?
2 likes   
Resident Rain Miser

I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.

Brandon8181
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 424
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:52 pm
Location: Tyler, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4780 Postby Brandon8181 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:14 pm

gboudx wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:Stupid Question:

So, every time the temperature gets in the low 20's for about 2 days our pipes ALWAYS freeze (along with the neighborhood). We have pex tubing in the attic. I'm a little concerned with temperatures dropping in the single digits or WORSE.

So the question is, if I simply leave the water running (not full blast, but much more than a drip), will that keep the pipes from freezing?


First, not a stupid question. Is the whole house affected or just specific faucets? In our case, the water supply to our island kitchen sink has frozen. I was stumped until I went into a house being built that is the same as ours and realized the pex is run in the attic, then down an exterior wall to the slab where it connects to plumbing to the sink. I figure it was freezing in the exterior wall so now when the temps get low like this, we leave the cabinets open.


Unfortunately, when it freezes it is the entire home that freezes. That is why I'm wondering if we simply just run the water if it will keep it from freezing.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist. Any post from me should be taken as hobby or fun educational information, but not an accurate source for weather information. Please, refer to your local weather station or National Weather Service for the most up to date information. :flag:


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest