Texas Winter 2020-2021

[srainhoutx]

Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think

There's a heavy Houston area posters list here. Notice it's fairly quiet? That's about all I need to know right now.

Oh it's busy over at Wx Infinity with the SE Texas folks..

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is calling for a literal Blizzard from Storm #1 this weekend

[SoupBone]

There's a heavy Houston area posters list here. Notice it's fairly quiet? That's about all I need to know right now.

Not much new to add based on the 18z models so far. GFS is likely too warm. Favoring a blend of the Euro, Canadian, and ICON right now, which bring some ice and snow accumulations down to Victoria and Houston.

Yeah, the defeatist or trolling posts are annoying when they can't back up claims. This board is DFW centric with a lesser focus on Austin/Houston.

What I posted wasn't a defeatest post, nor was it a troll. I've posted on this board regularly since 2005, this might be the first time I've been called a troll. My post referenced the old saying, no news is good news or certainly neutral. If the forecast for Houston were to drastically change, this thread would be filled with Houston posters, of which there are a lot, talking about this being a bust. There isn't.

[Iceresistance]

If you thought that the 18z GFS was scary enough, try the 18z GFS-Para . . .
18z GFS:

18z GFS-Para:



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio snowfall



I've not seen ANYTHING like the 18z GFS-Para in YEARS!

Also, the ratios are between 15:1 & 20:1 . . .

The true definition for the "Storm of the Century"

[iorange55]

Interesting that it has the precip as a mixture of sorts down in North-Central Texas.

Hard to believe it'll be anything but snow.

[TheProfessor]

If you thought that the 18z GFS was scary enough, try the 18z GFS-Para . . .
18z GFS:

18z GFS-Para:

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021021118.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio snowfall

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021021118.snku_024h.us_sc.gif

I've not seen ANYTHING like the 18z GFS-Para in YEARS!

Also, the ratios are between 15:1 & 20:1 . . .

The true definition for the "Storm of the Century"

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc82fab617f5cc445b.png

I know many in DFW would probably be happy with 4-6" of snow, but wow, that would probably hurt personally if I saw OKC manage 3 feet of snow and DFW couldn't even get a foot.

[iorange55]

I know many in DFW would probably be happy with 4-6" of snow, but wow, that would probably hurt personally if I saw OKC manage 3 feet of snow and DFW couldn't even get a foot.

I think it's because it doesn't have the heaviest precip falling as snow in the DFW area, for whatever reason.

[Ntxw]

I know many in DFW would probably be happy with 4-6" of snow, but wow, that would probably hurt personally if I saw OKC manage 3 feet of snow and DFW couldn't even get a foot.

I think it's because it doesn't have the heaviest precip falling as snow in the DFW area, for whatever reason.

Low track is more favorable for Oklahoma with those wild totals on the Para while the GFS is south with the later system.

[Brent]

this has been trending colder since yesterday

[Ntxw]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens?

the eastern half of the state WFOs (I-35 east) have yet to record one.

[cheezyWXguy]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens?

I’ll bet on it. I still think the globals are too far north.

[SoupBone]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens? the eastern half of the state WFOs (I-35 east) have yet to record one.

Has DFW ever been under a blizzard warning?

[sphelps8681]

Not much new to add based on the 18z models so far. GFS is likely too warm. Favoring a blend of the Euro, Canadian, and ICON right now, which bring some ice and snow accumulations down to Victoria and Houston.

Yeah, the defeatist or trolling posts are annoying when they can't back up claims. This board is DFW centric with a lesser focus on Austin/Houston.

What I posted wasn't a defeatest post, nor was it a troll. I've posted on this board regularly since 2005, this might be the first time I've been called a troll. My post referenced the old saying, no news is good news or certainly neutral. If the forecast for Houston were to drastically change, this thread would be filled with Houston posters, of which there are a lot, talking about this being a bust. There isn't.

This is called the Texas Winter post not just DFW. I understand that ya'll will face it first but discussions need to be made as well for others who are in the line of fire.

[Ntxw]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens? the eastern half of the state WFOs (I-35 east) have yet to record one.

Has DFW ever been under a blizzard warning?

DFW proper no. I think the far western counties may have in the Xmas Eve 09 event. Or if not I think they did both "winter storm warning+high wind warning" which I thought was odd at the time.

[TheProfessor]

If I had to bet, the GFS Para is too far north. If this was on the leaning edge of the cold then I'd be scared of a northwest trend. If I was scared of anything I'd be scared of a south trend due to possibly the line of baroclinicity being further south.

[Ntxw]

If I had to bet, the GFS Para is too far north. If this was on the leaning edge of the cold then I'd be scared of a northwest trend. If I was scared of anything I'd be scared of a south trend due to possibly the line of baroclinicity being further south.

Too far south and the spigot shuts off. Dry air wins.

[TheProfessor]

If I had to bet, the GFS Para is too far north. If this was on the leaning edge of the cold then I'd be scared of a northwest trend. If I was scared of anything I'd be scared of a south trend due to possibly the line of baroclinicity being further south.

Too far south and the spigot shuts off. Dry air wins.

That's the danger, but with how cold it already is ahead of the system, that's the only failure mode I see for DFW and more likely OKC right now.

[Ntxw]

If I had to bet, the GFS Para is too far north. If this was on the leaning edge of the cold then I'd be scared of a northwest trend. If I was scared of anything I'd be scared of a south trend due to possibly the line of baroclinicity being further south.

Too far south and the spigot shuts off. Dry air wins.

That's the danger, but with how cold it already is ahead of the system, that's the only failure mode I see for DFW and more likely OKC right now.

That was the scare I had a couple days ago when the qpf to the south was really strong. Sure the snow totals looked great but the thinking was at any moment the north end would start getting a strong cutoff. Looking for a south trend these days is easier than hoping for a north trend.

[KatDaddy]

A strong heading and summary from this afternoon’s HOU-GAL NWS Area Forecast Discussion regarding our upcoming significant Winter event.
The Houston-Galveston areas are also part of the Winter Weather Party.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...

...Sunday night plan on staying where you are with travel being
impacted to severe impacted through Tuesday morning...

*** OVERVIEW ***

* Surge of Arctic air arrives on Saturday with temperatures
approaching freezing across most of the area by Sunday night.

* First of two disturbances arrives on Saturday, bringing mostly
rain with higher chances of mixed precip north of I-10.

* Second system arrives late Sunday into early Monday. With
colder temperatures in place, widespread wintry precipitation could
impact most of the area during this time.

* Behind the second system, prolonged stretch of below freezing
and potentially historically low temperatures will last well into
next week. Another round of precipitation may arrive by mid-week.

[Ralph's Weather]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens? the eastern half of the state WFOs (I-35 east) have yet to record one.

Has DFW ever been under a blizzard warning?

I saw a graphic recently showing days since every WFO last issued a Blizzard Warning. FW CWA was null indicating they never have.