Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

[HockeyTx82]

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

We want MOAR!!!!!

[Texas Snow]

Something I just thought about in regards to the 83 storm (actually 89 as well) since people have been asking about pipes etc.

Many, but not all, of the problems were because it happened around Christmastime and people were out of town, thus not having the heat as high and not using water multiple times a day.

In 2021 Covid times, that portion of the equation at least will be reduced.

[Texas Snow]

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

NAM, CMC and Euro around 3”. Rock back and forth to their prior runs. Not freakin out, Just sayin...

[orangeblood]

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

Lol! Well that’s still definitely on the table, my bet is going to the higher end...even early Sunday might dump a quick 1-3 inches before the main event

We want MOAR!!!!!

[TexasSam]

By the way if you need to wash clothes, do it as soon as you can. Might not have water for a week like I did in 1989. All the water valves in all of the apartment complex washers had to be replaced after. because of dumb people in the apartment complex didn't have water tried to wash clothes.

[orangeblood]

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

We want MOAR!!!!!

Lol! Well that’s still definitely on the table, my bet is going to the higher end...even early Sunday might dump a quick 1-3 inches before the main event

[Ntxw]

Something I just thought about in regards to the 83 storm (actually 89 as well) since people have been asking about pipes etc.

Many, but not all, of the problems were because it happened around Christmastime and people were out of town, thus not having the heat as high and not using water multiple times a day.

In 2021 Covid times, that portion of the equation at least will be reduced.

For the most part keeping your home warm, dripping faucets, protecting cold areas and doing some prep work will do it for most. Areas in the northern US never get above freezing for months. Now extended periods under 20F does start stressing the issues but just continue to keep your living spaces warm and for the most part it will make it just fine. If you are without power and such then it becomes a real serious threat.

[TexasSam]

Something I just thought about in regards to the 83 storm (actually 89 as well) since people have been asking about pipes etc.

Many, but not all, of the problems were because it happened around Christmastime and people were out of town, thus not having the heat as high and not using water multiple times a day.

In 2021 Covid times, that portion of the equation at least will be reduced.

One of my aunts up in Cleveland came to Houston for Christmas and left her heat off. Came home to a toilet split in half with a ice ball in the center. LOL

[orangeblood]

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

NAM, CMC and Euro around 3”. Rock back and forth to their prior runs. Not freakin out, Just sayin...

We need to account for the higher ratio snow with this event, those model output maps don’t account for that sufficiently

[jasons2k]

There was some discussion on our "local" SE Texas forum so I thought I would share what I posted here:

Re: attic doors and whatnot - I'm a researcher, so I plan to do some actual research on the topic tomorrow. But this is what I have done so far and my plans going forward.

Yesterday & today:
- Stocked-up at HEB.
- Filled the vehicles with gas in case we lose power for weeks and need to take a road trip next weekend.
- Brought-in the potted plants; started electric space heater in the garage.
- Wrapped all the exterior faucets in extra foam and added faucet covers.
- Fresh foam and tape on the main line coming into the house. I also covered the main line in a mound of dirt up to the spigot.
- Shut off sprinkler backflow and drained.
- Bought a spare backflow bonnet.
- Bought 3/4" & 1" PVC caps in case I need to cap any lines.

Plans for Monday-Wed (and beyond)?):
- Will open attic stairs. I'm in a two-story house and the attic stairs are on the 2nd level, so heat from the house should rise. My attic is massive though. I could build a third story up there. When we had our roof replaced a couple of years ago, the roofer said we had the largest roof square footage in the neighborhood...so we'll see how that works out. The water heaters are in the attic.
- Additional space heater in garage, aimed against exterior walls.
- I've decided to shut the water main, drain the pipes, and leave the faucets open. Will turn-on and cycle through usage and drainage cycles a couple times a day to shower, cook, etc., then shutoff again, especially overnight.

That's about the best I can do without going too crazy. We survived the '89 freeze up in Plano just fine and all we did was wrap the outdoor faucets - that's it. Nothing extreme. We honestly didn't put too much thought into it, at the time. No space heaters, opening attic doors, or shutting down the water supply. And that was in a Fox and Jacobs (nothing fancy) brix and stix production home. I think with all the insulation in this newer, better-built house with those precautions, we should be OK (fingers crossed).

Now, if we get a major ice storm and lose power, all bets are off. We'll leave the water shut off and leave town when the roads clear.

[Texas Snow]

What trends? Forecast is 3-7 inches, even the low end model is forecasting that.

NAM, CMC and Euro around 3”. Rock back and forth to their prior runs. Not freakin out, Just sayin...

We need to account for the higher ratio snow with this event, those model output maps don’t account for that sufficiently

True, I’m just going off what NWS said this afternoon with 12:1 in north Texas, not some of these other crazy ratios. I’m not a pessimist believe me, I just try to be realistic both ways. These “trends” are just something I am watching as a weather enthusiast,and someone that wants higher totals. But if it happened to be an average of those other models and the gfs I am still happy. I just don’t want to expect 12” and be “saddened” by 3. How crazy is that to say about DFW, saddened by 3”???

[rwfromkansas]

The ICON looks better than the NAM with the dang dry slot. Will see how things change as they get close.

[txtwister78]

GFS locking in further southeast with higher totals toward S Central and East Texas...looks like Euro was on to something.

[txtwister78]

Based on trends...I would expect EWX (AUS/SAT) and even Houston NWS to update snowfall accumulations overnight.

[Parker_County1]

We are still almost 48 hours out. Plenty of time for models to go back the other way.

[Cerlin]

I wonder how much of this “dry slot” is just the models misinterpreting the heat island? Or if the mass concrete of the metroplex actually factors into the dryness there. I really hope a dry slot isnt in play though, but even with that there’s no way IMO DFW gets less than 3 inches.

[Texas Snowman]

Couple of things I thought of: First, if you can, have a charged up power bank or two for your phone(s). That way, if you lose power, you won’t be having to go out to your car/truck/SUV to charge your phone battery.

And because of the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning, I’ve read that if you have to start your car during or after a very heavy snowfall or drifting, you’ll want to make sure that the exhaust isn’t covered by snow before starting and warming up your car.

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully, people cam grasp how crazy this is for DFW...

[Brent]

Hopefully, people cam grasp how crazy this is for DFW...

https://i.ibb.co/bsbLRWV/Capture-2021-02-12-22-02-53-1.png

the GFS and ICON both are threatening the all time record cold high from freaking 1899 of 12 I'm not sure people have a full grasp of how extreme this cold is gonna be the population has grown a lot even since the 80s when it was 13 and 14 for a high