Texas Winter 2020-2021

[AubreyStorm]

Right now in Denton:

19, but Feels like 06

[Ntxw]

Also FW is now exclusively forecasting 2F for DFW airport. Wow.

High of 14F. Nearing all kinds of records.

[rwfromkansas]

I am at 19 and still falling. Each day has been a slow step down. Simply amazing. This is rivaling every cold stretch I had further north as a kid. Simply almost too hard to believe. Glad I got supplies yesterday.

[HockeyTx82]

I quietly was sounding the alarm at the office with coworkers and my manager all week. They blew it off as you were wrong the last time. Seemed to take it serious when the strong wording and warnings came out from FWD NWS. Worst case you don't have to go to store again for a while, best case you will not be having to get out when you might not be able to.

[Ntxw]

By tomorrow night per HRRR DFW's 25 year single digit drought comes to an end.

Also has 4-8" of snow.

[txtwister78]

Long range HRRR coming into focus now on potential snow accumulations.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[AubreyStorm]

Denton Scanner

FYI

Urgent- ERCOT has put all utilities across the state on standby for rolling blackouts over the weekend because of the forecasted frigid temperatures. If ERCOT directs electric providers to initiate the blackouts, we have 1 hour from the time of notification to start shedding load, this will be across various parts of our system in 15-minute increments, with 2-3 hours in between outages. We will update you with another Facebook post if we are forced to take action., so follow ERCOT on Facebook..We ask that all customers be as conservative as possible during this cold weather to help avoid the need for the blackouts.

[South Texas Storms]

12z HRRR looks cold and snowy. 3-6 inches of snow for SA and Austin, with 4-8 inches in Dallas.

[Ntxw]

If you are wondering what precip mode (snow? sleet? freezing rain?) one level of the atmosphere as a coarse guide can be 850mb. Everyone's below freezing at the surface or close so no issue there. If you are near or below 0c 850mb then it's highly likely snow is the dominant mode. This is the current reading below it will continue to move south with the deeper Arctic front.



FW sounding for 12z

[Haris]

That NAM is getting worse and worse (as in drier). Gives me pause

[funster]

12z HRRR looks cold and snowy. 3-6 inches of snow for SA and Austin, with 4-8 inches in Dallas.

Looks like most of the precip happens on Sunday as well.

[South Texas Storms]

That NAM is getting worse and worse (as in drier). Gives me pause

NAM looks too try, I prefer a blend of the HRRR and other models right now. Like I mentioned a few days ago, NAM barely had any precip across central TX on Thursday just 36 hours before the event.

[Portastorm]

That NAM is getting worse and worse (as in drier). Gives me pause

NAM looks too try, I prefer a blend of the HRRR and other models right now. Like I mentioned a few days ago, NAM barely had any precip across central TX on Thursday just 36 hours before the event.

Right STS. The NAM has always been lousy with qpf. That's why the pro's and knowledgeable enthusiasts laugh about it. It's a well known bias problem. It's great with temps for shallow cold airmasses but it's qpf forecasts are mostly unreliable.

[jasons2k]

I wonder if Richard Travis down in the Valley still lurks around. I'd like to know how everything fares down there WRT the tropical vegetation.

It's gonna be just awful in the Houston area. Palmocide 2021.

[NDG]

First I didn't want to believe it, but now that we are in the two day range of models showing daytime highs staying in the teens in Houston on Monday is just in insane! Lots of vegetation damage will be the outcome.

[megsy]

I wonder if Richard Travis down in the Valley still lurks around. I'd like to know how everything fares down there WRT the tropical vegetation.

It's gonna be just awful in the Houston area. Palmocide 2021.

Trying to decide what to do about our birds of paradise — do we cut them back and cover? Seems difficult and/or silly to cover them fully. But is it even worth the effort? What about azaleas and hawthorns? Agapanthus and hibiscus? Bah.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS-Para



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



Grand Total

[AubreyStorm]

Denton Scanner
FYI

Very dangerous wind chills are forecast across North and Central Texas, especially Sunday night through Tuesday night. Low temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday night are expected to fall into the single digits, and even below zero north of the DFW Metroplex. Wind chill values below zero degrees are expected across the entire region. Hypothermia and frost bite will become increasingly concerning as temperatures and wind chills continue to decrease.

[Iceresistance]

You don't see "Extreme" impact levels from a NWS Forecast very often . . . (NWS-Norman)