Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

Wow... the split of DFW is becoming very real in the models...

What are you talking about? Split?

QPF max band NW and SE of DFW with a big drop off in between, the drop off varies by model but showing up pretty much across all models now.

So when do we start the Spring thread?

[Ralph's Weather]

Wow... the split of DFW is becoming very real in the models...

What are you talking about? Split?

QPF max band NW and SE of DFW with a big drop off in between, the drop off varies by model but showing up pretty much across all models now.

I assume this is from a energy transfer to the Gulf surface low. Havent had a chance to study model this morning. Had to brave the ice for kids basketball game.

[TheProfessor]

I wouldn't worry too much about a dry slot right now, especially since this isn't a mature cyclone where the dry slot is easy to predict. Instead I'd wait until it's evident on radar before losing hope.

[txtwister78]

Wow... the split of DFW is becoming very real in the models...

What are you talking about? Split?

QPF max band NW and SE of DFW with a big drop off in between, the drop off varies by model but showing up pretty much across all models now.

Yup...Euro has had this for several runs...other models "catching up" with that trend. Euro may have finally got something right.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow... the split of DFW is becoming very real in the models...

What are you talking about? Split?

QPF max band NW and SE of DFW with a big drop off in between, the drop off varies by model but showing up pretty much across all models now.

It’s a small drop-off so not too concerned, but watchful. It doesn’t make any sense because the approach should not lead to such a “dry” region.

Now, if I only get an inch, then...well we are clearly cursed here for good. I will give up then forever.

[HockeyTx82]

What are you talking about? Split?

QPF max band NW and SE of DFW with a big drop off in between, the drop off varies by model but showing up pretty much across all models now.

It’s a small drop-off so not too concerned, but watchful. It doesn’t make any sense because the approach should not lead to such a “dry” region.

Now, if I only get an inch, then...well we are clearly cursed here for good. I will give up then forever.

Fox 4 showed that, it was right over Dallas proper.

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't worry too much about a dry slot right now, especially since this isn't a mature cyclone where the dry slot is easy to predict. Instead I'd wait until it's evident on radar before losing hope.

Yea, it's driven by mesoscale process that the models struggle with, even at very short range. However, it's never a good sign when a feature is consistently showing up across multiple models using different DA and physics. Not throwing in the towel but just acknowledging a real trend that is showing up in model data.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS P how about that for a dry slot? Only 2-3 inches from Dallas to Austin to San Antonio. More to the east. . You guys are hilarious.

[Texas Snowman]

With the models consistently busting on how cold it is, I’ll not put too much stock in any particular model solution.

As we move into nowcast mode, I’m thinking that models vs. reality this week show that: “It’s going to snow, some will get a memorable snow, it’s going to get cold, and for some, it might be once in a lifetime record cold.”

Only ironclad statement to make at this point is that it’s going to snow and get really, really cold.

[WacoWx]

The dry slot was the same way with the last snowstorm to the south. A notch around Dallas, and then precip picked up to the southeast.

[Ntxw]

The dry slot was the same way with the last snowstorm to the south. A notch around Dallas, and then precip picked up to the southeast.

The last snowstorm was very different. There is isentropic lift at play. In fact for areas to the southwest, south there is also a risk the precip would move quickly and end quickly as the cold air comes in. To the north the split between qpf is the winding down of isentropic lift and shift to the surface features in the gulf.

But here the back and forth argument is who get the most?

For DFW early in the game is key. If we start racking up the totals tomorrow morning before the southwest plume is mature we know we're in business.

[Tejas89]

Fox 4 futurecast, FWIW, definitely hints at a bit of dry slotting over DFW.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman — This week has been history in the making already! If Oklahoma City remains below 20 degrees F today (which we expect it will), it will tie the 5 consecutive days below 20 degrees set in 1983 and 1905. This is a significant cold "outbreak" - please take care!

#okwx #texomawx

[cstrunk]

Not much going on in east Texas (Gilmer). We are at about 29 right now, probably warmest it has been in last 48 hours. Any new thoughts on the next couple of days for Northeast Texas? I was thinking a lot of snow, but maybe it seems to be slowing down a bit for this area??

25 and snow grains in Lindale. Black ice all over from drizzle overnight. Expecting a good amount of snow tomorrow night and Monday morning. Gilmer may be stuck in sleet longer cutting snow totals. The mid week storm could dump in E TX but there is a risk of it being more mixed south of a Tyler to Texarkana line. The northwestern part of East Texas could get well over a foot this week. I am forecasting a low of -4 for The and 8 for Fri morning.

The snow/sleet line is going to be very tricky. I still think with how the models have not handled the cold air all that well, that line will move further south, at least for the first storm.

It'll be interesting to watch the trends for this.

[HockeyTx82]

12z GFS P how about that for a dry slot? Only 2-3 inches from Dallas to Austin to San Antonio. More to the east. . You guys are hilarious.

https://i.imgur.com/2DCu0AK.png

I'll see you all in the Spring Thread. March 1st.

[Ntxw]

CMC snow hole over the Arklatex.

[Iceresistance]

GFS (12z) is getting worse by the run!



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



Grand Total

[Iceresistance]

@NWSNorman — This week has been history in the making already! If Oklahoma City remains below 20 degrees F today (which we expect it will), it will tie the 5 consecutive days below 20 degrees set in 1983 and 1905. This is a significant cold "outbreak" - please take care!

#okwx #texomawx

It's 12°F right now . . .

[funster]

To close this potential snow hole we must fly airplanes over it repeatedly.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman on the timing of the storm, y'all may wake up Tomorrow to a LOT of snow (And why am I always in the bullseye zone for snow!?)




(Also, the Curse of 2020 is still here . . . )