2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Here is the models thread for 2021. Let's see if there are some upgrades on some of them.

[aspen]

Today’s 18z ICON has had one of its strongest solutions yet: a 913 mbar system in the SW Pacific on Day 4. I’ve never seen it get below 925 mbar before.

[chaser1]

Anyone know why the GFS-Para has been "off-line"? Also, can any of you share any insights to planned Model upgrades expected to occur this upcoming Spring or Summer?

With Spring officially less then one month away, I'm starting to turn my attention to broad scale mid and upper level pattern nuances and how well longer range global models over the Atlantic and W. Africa are tending to over/under play strengths and depths of troughs and high pressure ridging relative to what eventually verifies on their respective mid to long range forecast. More bluntly, I want to take the occasional measure if any global modeling appear to suck any less then they have during recent years

[crownweather]

Anyone know why the GFS-Para has been "off-line"? Also, can any of you share any insights to planned Model upgrades expected to occur this upcoming Spring or Summer?

With Spring officially less then one month away, I'm starting to turn my attention to broad scale mid and upper level pattern nuances and how well longer range global models over the Atlantic and W. Africa are tending to over/under play strengths and depths of troughs and high pressure ridging relative to what eventually verifies on their respective mid to long range forecast. More bluntly, I want to take the occasional measure if any global modeling appear to suck any less then they have during recent years

Not sure why it's unavailable on Tropical Tidbits, but the Parallel model is available on Pivotal Weather - https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=prateptype_cat&m=gfs_para

[chaser1]

Hmmmm? Agreed, odd that Levi wouldn't have a working link. Anyway, thanks Rob.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Tropical tidbits is down

[Iceresistance]

Tropical tidbits is down

How? It was up & running 2-3 hours before!?

Maybe they have a maintenance ongoing on the site, very common for certain sites to go down because of maintenance . . .

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1364962896736907274

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1364962896736907274

It's baaaaaack.

[xironman]

Hmm

[USTropics]

Hmm

https://i.imgur.com/GMjQ2wu.png

Possibly some subtropical development off the tail end of a frontal system. ECMWF operational hints at development:



Setup is similar between GFS and ECMWF ensembles—cutoff low gets left behind as high pressure builds in over the top. Chances of development definitely aren't 0 on this one, but it would be purely subtropical in origin.





Based on climatology, It's more likely the energy gets shoved out towards the CATL and stretched out, but it could stick around until the next frontal system picks it up.

[JW-_-]

GFS global modeling thinks another tropical storm may happen by weeks end in the GOC.





Got some support also from access global model and the local bom OCF consensus model.





Unpredictable region the goc.

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, and CMC are still showing the potential for a tropical or subtropical system to form out of some frontal setup next week. Over the last several days, the position in which the forming TC detached from the non-tropical system has jumped all over the place, from just off the NE coast to the middle of the open Atlantic. Pretty much 0 consensus on where this is going to go, but at least all the models agree on its origin.

[cycloneye]

GFS new upgrade at 12z, March 17

Excerpt:

Effective on or about March 17, 2021, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS and Global
Data Assimilation System (GDAS) from version 15.3 to 16.0. NCEP
also will roll in the operational standalone global
deterministic WAVEWATCH III wave model Multi_1. In the event of a
Critical Weather Day (CWD) declaration the implementation may be
delayed.
GFS version 16.0 is the first major upgrade to the Finite Volume
Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core-based GFS, which replaced the
spectral dynamical core in June 2019. In this upgrade, NCEP is
increasing the number of model vertical layers from 64 to 127
and extending the model top from the upper stratosphere (~55 km
height) to the mesopause (~80 km height).

https://www.weather.gov/media/notificat ... 6.0aab.pdf

[cycloneye]

The new tentative date for the GFS upgrade will be March 22.

[cycloneye]

GFS has been upgraded to GFSv16

Finnally the upgrade is here but now comes how efective it will be with the new tools.

 https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1374048646992396288

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The UKMet modell develops a hurricane over the South Atlantic Ocean from a cyclone which currently is SE of Uruguay. The CMC and ECM also show some development but it seems much more subtropical, while on the GFS and ICON the cyclone remain weak and disorganized.

[Iceresistance]

COD Meteorology is now down, what happened??

[aspen]

I believe this is the strongest GFS run since those crazy sub-900 Irma runs in 2017. I can't remember the last time I saw the GFS go sub-890.

[kevin]

I believe this is the strongest GFS run since those crazy sub-900 Irma runs in 2017. I can't remember the last time I saw the GFS go sub-890.
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

Who would've thought that a +234 hour GFS fantasy land run actually verifies .