Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#601 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:57 am

FormerNewtotex wrote:Wording from the SPC:

This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an
environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
possible), with considerable destructive potential.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


Good grief! That is VERY STRONG words from the SPC, they are NOT taking any chances! :eek:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#602 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:05 am

Look at those CLOUD TOPS! Thats some really intense storms forming.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#603 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:08 am

Multiple MCD's out from SPC. It's almost go time
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#604 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:14 am

Looks like cloud cover has been limited and now there is nothing to stop these storms from doing whatever they want. The CAPE is ridiculous along with the shear. The storms also will not overcrowd with just enough cap to keep storms from inhibiting one another. No discrete cells right now however.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#605 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:18 am

Severe Thunderstorm just north of Birmingham
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#606 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:27 am

PDS watch is up. Tor probs are 95/95!
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#607 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:28 am

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 50
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Northern Alabama
Northwest Georgia
Central and Eastern Mississippi
Southern Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...A dangerous environment is developing across the watch
area. Multiple rounds of intense supercell thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and early evening, with the potential for
long-track strong to violent tornadoes. A few of the storms may
also produce very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to
45 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
High (>95%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (80%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
Last edited by Bunkertor on Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#608 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:30 am

All but the BIG hail (2 inch & larger) is in the High threat! :eek:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

FormerNewtotex
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:41 am

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#609 Postby FormerNewtotex » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:34 am

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
High (>95%)


Crazy probabilities
0 likes   
Old account "Newtotex"
Most memorable tornadoes: 1997 & 2000 Tuscaloosa Tornadoes, 1998 Oak Grove Tornado
Hurricane Opal/Ivan/Katrina

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#610 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:35 am

New Day 1 outlook is out. No 45 hatched, which actually surprises me a bit due to the 95/95 probs
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#611 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:36 am

This outbreak will probably be more deserving of it's high risk compared to the last outbreak.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#612 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:39 am

Tornado Warning near Boligee, AL

This is Supercell #1 . . . And it's only getting started . . .
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#613 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:40 am

Are there hundreds of Overshooters in MS ?
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#614 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:43 am

Supercell #1 (Eutaw Supercell) Has a good couplet

Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#615 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:46 am

Young Elvis barely made it out with his life, when a Tornado destroyed his hometown, which is, i think, Tueplo, MS.
2 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#616 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:47 am

Bunkertor wrote:Young Elvis barely made it out with his life, when a Tornado destroyed his hometown, which is, i think, Tueplo, MS.


Yes, the 1936 Tueplo, MS Tornado . . .
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#617 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:50 am

Some kind of cc drop coinciding with the voriticity on the Eutaw cell. May have a weak tds?

Edit: definitely a tds
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#618 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:51 am

Iceresistance where did you get that site?
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#619 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:52 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Iceresistance where did you get that site?

The radar?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#620 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Iceresistance where did you get that site?

The radar?
Yeah the image you posted
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: A1A and 23 guests